Pakistan needs to draw the correct deductions from these terrorist attacks in Balochistan. Do they foretell further terrorist attacks with deeper, more widespread, and more critical aims and objectives? The BLA/BRAS and TTP, who are reportedly in contact already, have options.

One, a combined, simultaneous terrorist assault with converging nationalist, sectarian, and ethnic objectives in Balochistan. The BLA/BRAS could be tasked with pursuing its nationalist objectives while the TTP could simultaneously create a sectarian and ethnic upheaval. The BLA/BRAS could attack BRI-CPEC projects, infrastructure, military/paramilitary forces, LEAs, intelligence agencies, government functionaries and installations, and unarmed civilians as well. The TTP, supported by local sectarian parties, could target Punjabis, Hazaras, and even Pashtuns to unleash violent sectarian and ethnic unrest in Balochistan and Pakistan at large. The aim would be to make Balochistan and Pakistan ungovernable, the BRI-CPEC unviable, and Sino-Pakistan relations unsustainable.

Two, BLA/BRAS and TTP could be launched simultaneously in Balochistan and KP, respectively, with India heating up the LOC, the working boundary, and/or the international borders, in tandem. That would overwhelm the Pakistan Government and military, forcing them to look in multiple directions—east, west, and inwards. The IFIs could, at the same time, start exerting severe economic pressures to further worsen Pakistan’s woes. Could such a volatile environment generate existential threats for Pakistan to force its hand on the BRI-CPEC and/or ominously on its strategic assets too?

It would require sublime leadership with deep strategic vision and foresight, courage, and determination to deter and pre-empt such vile, worst-case scenarios. A two-pronged approach is warranted. The Governments of Balochistan and Pakistan must first blunt the leverage that RAW and other hostile intelligence agencies hold over the terrorists through a comprehensive media counter-offensive. RAW’s propaganda, fake news, misinformation, etc., must be effectively negated and nullified. Furthermore, they must engage the people of Balochistan directly. The era of the indirect approach through their ruthless, feudal, dictatorial Sardars is now over. The educated Baloch middle class is now at the forefront and must be engaged forthwith. It must be a whole-of-the-Government-and-nation approach with the military, intelligence agencies, paramilitary forces, and civil society all involved in the dialogue. The genuine demands and reservations of the Baloch must be listened to patiently and remedies provided immediately.

A massive development programme must be initiated to create the necessary infrastructure and employment opportunities in the province. Education and health facilities must reach all corners of the province and be readily available to all people. By law, locals must be employed by the projects of the Government, BRI-CPEC, and foreign investors. The necessary training and technical skills must be imparted to them to that end. The mineral, gas, and oil resources of Balochistan must first serve the interests and needs of the locals. Projects of the CPEC, including Gwadar, Reko Diq, and Saindak, must contribute directly and tangibly to the upliftment of the province and the fortunes of the people. Reko Diq and Saindak must establish refining and manufacturing facilities in the hinterland of the Mekran Coast and employ locals to benefit them.

The administration of the province through A and B areas must be done away with. There should be only one well-trained, well-organised, well-equipped, well-led, and motivated Balochistan Police Force that must establish its writ all over the province. The Levies have been unable to deliver thus far and must be subsumed elsewhere. A strong police force, comprised overwhelmingly of locals, is inevitable to maintain law and order in the province. The much-trumpeted Truth and Reconciliation Commission must be put into practice post-haste. The most sensitive issue of the Missing Persons must be addressed head-on in an honest, forthright, true, fair, and just manner. All acts of terrorism must also be brought out in full, and the losses of men and material to the Armed Forces, paramilitary forces, LEAs, intelligence services, and civil society must be acknowledged and responsibility apportioned. A spirit of blanket forgiveness and forgetting of past (mis)deeds must prevail to bring an end to this foreign-sponsored exploitation of our own fault lines, inadequacies, and failings. This is a sine qua non to securing Balochistan and, by implication, Pakistan!

At the military level, Pakistan must be prepared to deter, pre-empt, and effectively counter both possible contingencies. Its Armed Forces, paramilitary forces, LEAs, and intelligence agencies must become more proactive, dominate the area, and deny the terrorists any freedom of movement and action. They must employ the vertical element in their tactics, using satellites, drones, air reconnaissance, and air-ground interdictions wherever needed. Furthermore, the communication systems of the terrorists (reportedly Starlink-based) need to be countered. Night vision devices, ground and air mobility for troops quick reaction forces longer-range direct and indirect fire weapon systems, and better communications are the need of the hour. Once engaged, the terrorists must not be allowed to disengage but be annihilated in situ. In the case of a twin assault in Balochistan and KP, Pakistan must plan to defeat them either way—simultaneously or piecemeal. Pakistan must feel no compunction in targeting their hideouts and safe havens across the Pak-Afghan border. Of necessity, Pakistan Government’s and military’s responses must always remain relevant in time, space, and effect!

Securing Balochistan, in all respects, thus becomes Pakistan’s immediate, primary, vital, and core national interest. The first step would be to engage the people of Balochistan and settle their grievances to their satisfaction. Period. Second, the Armed Forces and intelligence agencies must retain the initiative over the terrorists, always and every time—be it on the battlefield or in winning over the hearts, minds, and souls of the people of Balochistan.

Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.