Israel’s relentless assault on Gaza and the Palestinians has entered its tenth month. The world is horrified by the devastation of Gaza and its people, condemning Israel’s actions. Yet, some Western governments continue to support Israel’s actions despite clear violations of international human rights and humanitarian laws. They provide Israel with unwavering support across diplomatic, military, economic, and technological fields, reinforcing the IDF’s combat capabilities. Global protests and public outrage in support of the Palestinians have thus far been in vain. However, the tide appears to be turning against Israel’s aggressive pursuit of its security and foreign policy objectives, leaving it increasingly isolated on the world stage, despite U.S. efforts to coerce “errant” nations into compliance.

Despite this, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu feels no compunction in expanding the scope and zone of conflict. He escalated tensions further with the alleged assassinations of Fuad Shukr, a Hezbollah military leader in Lebanon, and Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ lead negotiator for peace, who was visiting Tehran. These well-planned operations were calculated to further destabilise the region, prolong the conflict, provoke a military response from Iran and its proxies, and draw the U.S.-led West deeper into the conflict, regardless of the ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions in the South China Sea. The U.S.-led West and the Middle East peace process appear to have been dealt a diabolical fait accompli simultaneously.

The current conflict began with the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. Israel lost approximately 1,200 lives, with up to 250 taken as hostages by Hamas. What compelled Hamas to act? The primary reason seems to be the gradual but noticeable spread of the U.S.-sponsored Abraham Accords. Several Muslim African and Arab states had already established diplomatic relations with Israel. The Arab world was ominously leaning towards Israel, seemingly ready to abandon the Palestinian cause altogether. (The Masjid Al-Aqsa, Islam’s first Qibla, often gets lost in the larger Palestinian struggle). An imminent rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia would have been the final blow to the Palestinian cause. Hamas may have felt compelled to pre-empt this and secure what it perceived to be in Palestine’s vital national interest. With this attack, they successfully sabotaged the Abraham Accords, brought the Palestinian issue back into the global spotlight, and inflicted significant losses on Israel, particularly to its sense of security, invincibility, and arrogance.

From January to October 2023, protests erupted across Israel against Netanyahu’s attempts to legislate sweeping judicial reforms that would give the government decisive control over the Supreme Court. These efforts, coupled with the October 7 Hamas attacks, further dented Netanyahu’s popularity. It was one of Israel’s worst intelligence and military failures since the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Yet, Netanyahu shows no inclination to seek a genuine cessation of hostilities and peace. He has multiple incentives to continue the conflict, having served as Prime Minister for about 16 years and seeking to remain in power. Furthermore, he is on trial for corruption and is safe from prison as long as he remains in office. This security hinges on the support of his extreme right-wing coalition allies, who strongly oppose a ceasefire with Hamas. Therefore, Netanyahu’s government is prolonging the negotiations and attempting to escalate the Gaza conflict into a regional or even extra-regional war. He is also under unrelenting pressure from the Israeli public, who are calling for his resignation, early elections, a ceasefire with Hamas, and the prompt return of all hostages.

Iran, however, has vowed retribution for Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran, promising revenge at a time, place, and manner of their choosing. This has placed the Middle East on edge. The shadows of war loom large, and forces are being marshalled, concentrated, assembled, and deployed. Israel and its allies are preparing for all possible scenarios. The U.S. has predictably moved its aircraft carrier group into the eastern Mediterranean, and top U.S. and UK military leaders have visited Israel to coordinate military, logistical, intelligence, and operational support.

The most critical intelligence at this moment is understanding the real and final intent and plans of the Iranian government, its military (IRGC), and the roles of its proxies, including various Shiite militias in the region. Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance missions are ongoing around the clock. Aerial, electronic, and human intelligence resources, along with satellites, aerial platforms like aircraft and drones, and sleeper cells within Iran, have all been activated. Friendly intelligence agencies are also contributing their information. All efforts are focused on uncovering the time, place, and method of Iran’s response, to either pre-empt or defeat it.

Intelligence and operational activities are thus in full swing across the Middle East in anticipation of war. The question remains: will it be a limited conflict, or will it escalate into a regional or even extra-regional war?

(To be continued)

Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets@K846Im.