This article is continuation of ‘Global Strategic Governance 2020: Politics of US, UK, EU, Russia and China in the MENA region’ (25th June 2020, The Nation). The political events in global affairs during initial half of year (January-June) 2020 have particularly set the trajectory towards certain global ‘strategic governance’ practices in later half of the year (July-Dec 2020) and beyond. The patterns and trends of Political events suggest that Israeli plan of West Bank’s annexation set to be implemented right in the middle of the year (1st July, 2020) is also part of pursuing Global Strategic Governance in order to pursue path to rise of Israel as the Ruling State of the world. The role and presence of Muslims is quite essential in the setting of the contours of Global Strategic Governance practices as it involves not only reaching out to Jews and Christians (Abrahamic faiths) on new terms but also establishing political thought based on AyaamIllah in affairs of Global Strategic Governance. Specific contents of Non-traditional security approach dealt in context of Political events occurring in MENA region enable to create framework for SPPC on basis of Foreign Policy, Security Policy and Strategic Governance.
In this second part of the main article 'Global Strategic Governance 2020: Politics of US, UK, EU, Russia and China in MENA region,' the ‘role of contents in non-traditional security’ in the context of Governance and Security Policy is further discussed in this third section on basis of evidence-based reasoning. The initial two sections dealt in main article are (i) Introduction to Politics of US, UK, EU, Russia and China in MENA region and, (ii) Pattern, trends and trajectory of Political events. The expansion of scope and range of strategic governance practices witnessed in political events from North Africa into Middle East combines together politics of Middle East and North Africa. The focus on Libya is parallel to emerging 'futuristic' Syria policy. Israel's 'Africa Pivot' in January 2020 has secured western side of Israel. In June / July 2020, Israel has reverted to its eastern borders to strike security infrastructure of Syria and Iran amidst Israeli annexation plan of West Bank which was strategically decided to be set on a date which falls right in the middle of year i.e., July 1st 2020. The Security policy witnessed on the in North Africa (western border) during Jan-Jun 2020 can be observed for surge in trends, pattern and trajectory concerning political events in Middle East (Eastern border) in the later half of the year 2020. Therefore, the aim is to establish framework for MENA politics.
The three sections (initial two sections covered in main article of two-articles series) categorically explain the trends, patterns and trajectory of Foreign policy. This follow-up article deals with section (iii) placed in second part of main article. The section (iii) is titled EVIDENCE-BASED REASONING BASED ON OBSERVATION OF TRENDS, PATTERN AND TRAJECTORY ASSOCIATED WITH POLITICAL EVENTS: JAN-JUNE 2020 AND BEYOND as follow-up in order to cater the previous article ‘Africa Pivot: The strategy of Pakistan, Turkey and Israel for Security Pacts and Peace Treaty’ published in beginning of March 2020 when Berlin Conference on Libya (and Munich Security Conference) had set a certain path foreign policymaking of Major powers of the western bloc. The follow-up article connects the dots regarding the expansion of political endeavours from Middle East (M.E.) to North Africa (N.A.). Eschatological position on evidence-based reasoning regarding the trend, pattern and trajectory of political events in the MENA region serves as the foundation of the Abrahamic Perspective of Strategic Governance. Libya is the new Syria. Since January 2020, all political events transfusing onto single platform converge into a consolidated framework which depicts the aspects of Strategic Governance in global power dynamics. Similar to previous article, Africa occupies central importance in the follow-up article. Analysis of Strategy, Security and Governance enables researcher to gain proper understanding and insight of global power dynamics to witness that the Africa Pivot enabled major powers to ensure international follow up to Berlin Conference on Libya. The article suggests that all global political events in year 2020 are associated with major powers ‘leverage of global power dynamics’ in North Africa (particularly, Libya, till June 2020). The follow-up article also sets the tone for establishing insight of political insights for remaining of the year 2020.
The Strategic Policy Planning Cell in the National Security Division can utilise the list of political events which can potentially serve as chain of interlinking ‘evidence-based reasoning’ and ‘Abrahamic perspective of Strategic Governance.’ The list of political events provide complete detailed information required for extracting pattern, trend and trajectory through observational approach to (eschatological position on) evidence based reasoning. The period of January-June 2020 provides entire list of political events: The (A) role of EU, UK, NATO, Russia, China, US, Venezuela, Iran, Syraq (Syria-Iraq), OPEC, Israel in (B) oil price wars, space force and technology wars, economic sanctions, pandemic rage, arms treaty / embargos, rogue nations and other unprecedented situations arising during initial half-phase of year 2020. It is a framework to further expand the framework after second half of the year starts from the Israeli annexation of West Bank (postponed but strategically placed right in the middle of the year). Therefore, Israel occupies central role in the framework with respect to Security Deal, Political Agreements and Defense / Peace treaties in era of Global Strategic Governance. Therefore, Israeli actions in attacking secure infrastructure of Syria (end of June) and Iran (July) is also considered as major political event since July-December 2020 period represents the expansion from North Africa to Greater Middle East.
The most significant change in US foreign policy has been regarding its outlook towards China. US has been adamant to include China in ‘ARMS TREATY’ to the extent that it forced Russia to accept the specific term through the exit from Open Skies Treaty with the sword hanging over START treaty, which has invited several comments from both sides. The encirclement of China was not merely to impose pressure through blame game of the pandemic scourge but the increasing border tensions (Beijing opposes US aircraft carriers conducting round the clock drills in South China Sea after US Secretary of State voices support for Philippines and Vietnam against China’s actions in South China Sea; he further stated that reduction in level of US troops meant to be re-inforced in India, East Asia to counter China) in South Asia (India-China) and Asia-Pacific (Hong Kong and Korean Peninsula). Such unprecedented level of serious threat in political events have led China to adopt gradually increasingly aggressive posture. US has not only fixed its target on China but also reduced the options for the countries whom it terms as Rogue States. Iranian FM has stated that Iran is entering into 25-year bilateral deal as part of Strategic Accord with China. This comes as Israel launched attacks on Iran’s Nuclear facility in Natanz and Parchin as well other Iranian infrastructure in May, June and then intensified in July 2020 in order to test Iran’s ‘Strategic Patience Policy.’ It is possibly part of US plan to force Iran to retaliate which would jeopardise Iran’s JCPOA (Nuclear and Arms deal) agreement with European Union. US has been on Iran’s neck since killing of IRGC General in January 2020 with heightened tension during April 2020 bringing both sides on the verge of open war. In July 2020, Russia is now increasingly gaining conviction that the encirclement of China and Rouge States (particularly, Iran) will not be the end of Great Game at strategic chess board as political events witnessed at this particular moment in time enable researcher to accurately depict that Israel’s act of postponing its annexation plan is part of Greater Plan. Israel was treated as Joint-protectorate in mutual dealings between America and Russia after Russian intervention in Syria in 2015. Therefore, Russia has initiated collaboration with China to protect strategic interests as US State department issued statement that ‘arms race of US, Russia and China is detrimental and destabilising peace efforts’ is aimed at increasingly pressurising Russia and China to agree to America’s terms.
Following are the political events covered in news from start of July 2020 till End of June 2020 which are sequenced backward according to mutual link and relevance: Beijing to join US-Russia Arms talks if US cuts nukes to Chinese level: China / Russia supports China’s Security Law in Hong Kong: Russian FO spokesperson / Extending Arms embargo against Iran means death of Nuclear deal: Iranian Ambassador to Russia / China exposes US plan to extend Iran sanctions / US asks UN to extend Arms embargo on Iran / Iran opposes US for bullying remaining Nuclear Deal signatories: Iran FM / Pompeo’s claims misleading the situation amid push to extend Iran Arms ban: Iran FM / Russia slams US maximum suffocation policy against Iran in UN / Russia, Turkey and Iran commit to Syria’s unity, independence / Russia, China veto extending cross-border aid to Syria / US democrats seeking to ban spending funds for control of oil in Iraq, Syria / Foreign (Egyptian) Airforce strike Turkish-sponsored bases in Libya / EU Foreign Policy Chief discusses Libya, Syria with Turkish leadership / Turkish FM urges EU, NATO support in Naval standoff against France / France quits EU naval mission on Libya amidst differences on NATO (as US calls on NATO to increase security spending under NATO) + Pentagon approves $2Billion sale of surveillance aircraft to France / UK, Italy and Turkey in agreement on Political solution in Libya / US sanctions cementing Russia, China and Iran’s influence on Syria’s geopolitical orientation / Turkey establishing bases in Northern Iraq / Russia to open embassy in Libya, urges Arab countries to restore Syria in Arab League: Russian FM / EU extends sanctions against Russia + EU prepares coordinated response to China’s new Security Law + US accepts EU offer to create dialogue on China / Lifting sanctions on Iran would destabilise Middle East: US / US, EU co-chaired International conference on Syria held in Brussels / US, Libya discuss National Security / Russia, Germany, France and Italy call for immediate ceasefire in Libya / NATO changes Libya policy, shows concern on Russia’s growing presence in Libya.
In fact, after realising the ground-situation, Russia and China are adopting ‘back door’ diplomacy with Rogue States (Iran, Venezuela, Syria, Cuba, Libya etc) similar to strategy of ‘Israel and Pakistan in Africa,’ as part of Security deals, Political Agreements and Peace / Defense treaties with respect to Global Strategic Governance. The failed coup attempt in Venezuela, meanwhile, brought Venezuela and Iran closer. The Oil price war had significantly impacted the oil market which led the Iranians to share their oil wealth with Venezuela by sending tankers while US threatened to target any Iranian asset; Venezuela also formally requested UK to hand over its gold (Iran rips ‘unlawful US sanction’ on Venezuela oil supply as miserable failure of pressure).
Simultaneously, US formally launched new ‘SPACE FORCE’ program which invited criticism from Russia and China that US is ‘weaponising and militarising’ the space (New ‘US Space Force; musters to attain $15.3 billion funding for FY2021-22 / Washington seeks to turn space into ‘Combat Zone’: Russian Ambassador to US / Japan, US should refrain from arms race in space: China’s Defence Ministry / China close to building New Space Station / US criticises launch of new Iranian, Chinese satellites / China rejects invite for arms treaty talks with US, Russia / US wants Israel to abandon use of Chinese 5G technology).
During this time, the American opposition to Regime brought Iran closer to European Union. US further increased the sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, Syria and Cuba. These events were both, gradual and simultaneous, political events at the same time. The economic sanctions were combined with ‘ARMS EMBARGO’ (Trump designates Bush-era staunch sanctions advocate as arms control envoy / Russia and China have no reason to vote against Iran arms embargo: US State Department / US to possibly soon decide not to extend new START treaty: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister / Pompeo told Lavrov any future arms control talks must include China: US State department / US officially notifies Russia regarding exit from Open Skies Treaty / NATO allies remain committed to arms control treaty: Jens Stoltenberg / Trump praises Putins’s Russia, says mutual relations are at best / US Special envoy for Arms control says Washington, Moscow launch ‘Strategic Stability’ working group working group).
Therefore, aspects of traditional security were also being dealt alongside non-traditional security. Furthermore, US persistently and ferociously sought to contain China through various means. These political events with undeniably significant level of inter-connection present an unprecedented situation (for e.g., ‘TECHNOLOGY WARS’ including China steps up testing to release world’s first sovereign digital currency / US wants Israel to block Chinese investment in its 5G networks). The scale and range of the political events occurring between January and June 2020 is beyond simple comprehension. Proper tools for analysis are required. The political events include role of NATO, US, EU, Russia, China, US, Syraq (Syria-Iraq), OPEC and Israel. The political events took a new turn for Russia when Chinese ambassador was murdered in Israel. Furthermore, Israeli Defence Minister said that Syria operations will continue until Iran leaves Syria. Despite the initial Russian disposition of being satisfied for treating Israel as Joint protectorate with the US, the Russian President Putin instantly gave title to Russian ambassador in Syria as ‘President’s envoy to Syria for developing relations.’ The pressure worked. Iran had to indulge in ‘back-door’ channel negotiation for making deals with the US (Including the prisoner swap deal) but Iran denied any deal regarding removal of Assad from power in Syria. In response, Iranian Supreme leader stated that US will be expelled from Syria and Iraq. However, the alleged secret deal between US and Iran reportedly led to rise of Al-Kadhimi as the Prime Minister of Iraq.
The unprecedented and interesting turn in political events came surprisingly when Israel blamed Iran for supplying Libya’s Khalifa Hafter with weapons to fight against UN-recognised Libyan Government. Meanwhile, France, Britain and Germany regretted US rescinding sanctions waivers on JCPOA-related projects in Iran and, the three European countries along with Italy have embarked on improving relations with Turkey on matters related with Libya. The policy of western bloc regarding US declared ‘ROGUE STATES’ form major portion of the list of political events. US has adopted tougher stance against Syria, Libya, Cuba and Venezuela in previous few months. The arms embargo and economic sanctions are directed to weaken the stand of the rogue states (Syria, Venezuela term new US sanction as preclude to initiate ‘power change’ / Israel rapidly increasing its strikes in Syria: US Diplomat / EU extends sanctions against Assad regime ruling in Syria).
US has also put pressure UN bodies and regional / global organisations as well as States, Corporations, Bodies, Blocs and Institutions to handle matters differently. Pompeo recently stated that China’s potential to rise should be set on terms of Western bloc. The US-Israel duo has also openly rejected International Criminal Court probe on war criminals. Therefore, new ‘marshal plan’ seems to be on the way as States, Bodies, Organisations and Corporations have to adjust to the new status quo. These ‘mentioned’ political events form majority (percent) of the complete set listed to determine the trend and pattern. It includes coverage of more than 200 ‘political event’ articles in order to write down this second part of follow-up article after prequel was published in beginning of March. Apart from patterns and trends, the trajectory of Turkey is the most relevant in terms of reaching credible and valid final result findings. Turkey openly asked US, EU, UK and NATO to engage in Libya (North Africa) through redefined ‘increased’ political role. The entire western bloc coalesced to Turkish suggestion. The latest Egyptian maneuvers are to set the contours with Western bloc powers present in North Africa. Egypt’s ‘Cairo Initiative’ with the announcement of Fateh Al-Sisi’s instruction to Egyptian military to remain prepared for war ‘abroad’ is clear reference to new found priorities of Egypt. This was reflected in latest Foreign Air Force attacking Turkish bases in Libya in July 2020. There are agreements and objections from all sides but the main catch is that Libya has been put on global radar amidst such unprecedented level (scale and range) of political events. A new session of diplomatic endeavours in North Africa is being pursued since ‘Maghreb’ countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt) are directly dealing with powerful representatives of western bloc (EU, NATO, US, UK, EU: Germany, France, Italy) while Russia is increasingly finding itself on the opposite side of the table (Russia urges ‘conflicting Libyan factions to cease hostilities: Russian Foreign Ministry / Moscow ‘surpirised’ at Haftar’s claims of LNA’s control over Libya: Russian Foreign Office / Libyan National Army withdrawing from Skirat political agreements that produced Rival GNA: Khalifa Haftar / EU launches Libya military mission / Germany deploy troops to uphold arms embargo on Libya / Russia questions UN mandate of EU’s new naval mission off Libyan coast / Russia working to put Syrian militia in Libya: US / Russia asks Haftar to declare Truce / US may send troops to Tunisia over Russian campaign to destabilise region: US AFRICOM).
A short list of political events occurring during beginning of month June (covering one week phase): Russia sent warplanes to back mercenaries in Libya: US military + US, Libya discuss latest situation + Germany calls for cease-fire in Libya + Haftar in Libya not flexible for cease-fire talks: US + Turkey to not allow uncertainty in Libya: Turkish Official + US to send troops to Tunisia + Moscow denies US accusations of forging money for Libya + EU extends sanctions against Assad regime ruling in Syria + US, Russia conduct first joint patrol in Syria + US deploys low-altitude air defense system in Syria + Russia eyeing expansion of military bases in Syria + Putin appoints Russian ambassador as new presidential envoy to Syria + EU extends sanctions against Assad regime ruling in Syria + US, EU, UK block Russian INGA resolution on sanctions relief amidst coronavirus pandemic.
These above-mentioned political events correspond to the timeline of single week of month of June. Otherwise, the timeline of the beginning of connection of Libyan episode and its link with all other political events (EU launch Libya Military mission in January / Russia questions UN mandate of EU’s new naval mission off Libyan coast / Libya calls for probe of EU’s IRINI operation implementing UN’s arms embargo / Turkey lambasts the joint declaration ‘challenging’ access to East Mediterranean) can easily be traced to January – May 2020. Apart from Libya, the Assad regime is facing difficult times from the hands of western bloc (US envoy to NATO floats Idlib aid package to Turkey in exchange for dropping Russia’s S-400 / US blocks Russian advances in Syria / UN envoy urges US-Russia dialogue in Syria / US P-8A Poseidon spy aircraft spotted on mission near Russian military base in Syria / Russia’s Putin, new Iraqi PM discuss settlement in Syria / Iraq and US launch strategic talks after Iraqi Parliament demands US to exit.
The Libyan and Chinese episode has alerted Russia to preserve and safeguard its element of Strategic and National Interest associated with Syria. In fact, US has been targeting China and Russia, together. Following are the political events: China, Russia exploiting coronavirus crisis, says US / Trump urges China, Russia arms control in telephonic call with Putin / US blaming China for COVID-19 to neutralise global market competitor: Russian Envoy / Russia to consider Venezuela's request for assistance in 'invasion, coup' probe: Lavrov / US blocks Russia-sponsored UNSC statement on incursion in Venezuela / US increasingly pressuring Russia amid COVID-19 pandemic: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister / Putin signs new rules for use of nuclear weapons / US launches campaign to accuse Syria of inability to curtail coronavirus, claims Syrian-Russian Joint Statement / China has deliberately failed to provide reports in 'timely manner' regarding coronavirus outbreak to WHO: Pompeo / China lambasts Trump's threat of using tariffs as 'weapon' / Beijing slams US bill for sanctions against China regarding COVID-19 outbreak / Chinese envoy to Israel found dead in Herzliya / China says Palestine’s views, opinions need to be heeded, respected / India, Australia open up bases in amid China row / India rushes additional troops to Galwan Valley after China claims it as its territory / Trump orders end to Hong Kong’s special status / China passes Hong Kong National Security Law / No right of US to demand UNSC extend Arms Embargo on Iran after leaving JCPOA: China.
Considering the pattern, trend and trajectory of political events, the evidence-based reasoning approach suggests that Western bloc has brilliantly planned the strategy to encircle Russia, China and Rogue states. Considering the rest half of year 2020, Israeli annexation plan is not part of random political endeavour. It is part of long term goals and objectives associated with establishment and security of future Ruling State of the world i.e., Israel. Therefore, the political events concerning Israel should also be examined. The political events in initial half of year 2020 are tied into second half with Israeli annexation plan being implemented right in the middle of the year 2020 (July 1st, 2020).