The political events, occurring in January and February 2020, indicate that Turkey and Pakistan have initiated effective ‘backdoor’ and formal diplomacy to cement their position in regional and global affairs. The ‘western-tilt’ policy is evident in the Pakistani role in US-Taliban deal as well as the Turkish role in Syria and Libya. The presence of Western powers, including the US and European countries, has not reduced in the Modern / Greater ‘Middle East.’ What is more surprising is the timing of political events during the months of January and February 2020: the killing of IRGC General before announcement of US middle east peace plan, the Turkish intervention in Maghreb (North Africa) and Egypt's 'anti-turkish' response, the Turkish-Syrian rivalry leading to Turkish-Russian disagreement causing role of Americans / Europeans to increase in Syria. The list of such events can be continued due to rapid level of changes occurring on global level such as Arab-Israel Pact to be finalised 'soon' as stated by the Former PM Qatar on Twitter that a non-aggression agreement might be signed between Arab countries and Israel as a next step to the "peace plan" the U.S. announced for the Middle East, known as the 'Deal of the Century.'  In fact, the more such details come out, the more rational and logical it all seems in terms of it being proved as brilliant planning.

Meaning that all aforementioned events tie up into exact prophecised situation told 1400 years ago by the Holy Prophet (Peace Be Upon him). The events in January/February 2020 were part of long term strategic planning by the west which also includes Brexit (causing other European countries to increase role in Maghreb and Sahel region of North Africa which include countries like Libya, Tunisia, Morocco while US finalised deal with Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia). It's all about the deal of the century with Israel at the center-stage. It also seems that role of China and Iran in Asia has also drastically reduced during initial months of year 2020 with Turkey questioning the Iranian-sponsored ‘Turkish-Russian’ Sochi agreement regarding Syrian de-escalation zones such as Idlib.

The latest ‘single-most’ important geopolitical event is Idlib crisis which empowers ‘eschatological position on evidence-based reasoning’  as inherently important element used to identify that Idlib and Aleppo directly refer to places mentioned by the Holy Prophet which at a particular time will witness 'Romans' (West / Europe) gaining upper hand in affairs of Turkey and Syria (while restraining Russia, China and Iran). During end of February, the Prophetic traditions regarding eschatological position were fulfilled when NATO announced that Turkey requested the respective organisation to intervene in Northern Syria amidst the Refugee crisis and the looming threat of Syrian-Turkish war. NATO Chief stated that Idlib, as fourth de-escalation zone, is a serious matter of concern for ‘regional’ security. Turkey intentionally took the reconciliatory step towards US, Israel and Western Europe in a move to reduce dependence on Russia and, increase direct cooperation, collaboration and coordination with the countries of Western bloc (UK, Italy, France, Germany, US etc) since expiration date of its ‘1923 Treaty’ finalised with Western Powers is near and it expects to vex its muscles in the region in near future (especially, Europe, in the long run). The Prophetic traditions also mention ‘Maghreb’ (North Africa) as the starting point of the eschatological events which can be determined as already having occurred in recent events in Libya based on Berlin Conference and Munich Security Conference. Turkey has increased its role in expanding relationship with West on basis of ‘Peace Treaty’ and ‘Security pacts.’ The Prophetic traditions mention ‘Peace Treaty’ between Muslims and Ar-Rum (west) resulting in ‘Security Pacts’ due to direct link of Constantinople (Istanbul), Damascus, Jerusalem and Madinah. The ‘deal of the century’ is an attempt to increase western position of power and authourity in ‘Security pacts’ and ‘Peace Treaties’ as China and Iran suffer setback in geopolitics.

The only question we need to ask is: Where does Pakistan stand in this entire situation and what can be done regarding mutual relationship of ‘eschatological position’ and ‘evidence-based reasoning’? There shouldn’t be a problem with Pakistan's ‘western-tilt’ policy 'until' the time it serves beneficial in terms of Pakistani national interest to strategically deal with ruling state of the world but recent increase in the 'level of demand' requires better planning since US is increasing role in South Asia (indicated in Trump's latest India visit). Pakistan must be prepared by taking such implications into account pertaining to 'Peace treaty' & 'security pacts' with West / Europe.

Pakistan and Israel are the two countries on the map of the world which owe their existence to the religious political thought. Pakistan was formed through the struggle of Muslim League Party. The idea of Israel as the separate homeland for Jews was the goal of the Zionist Movement headed by Theodore Herzl. The Pakistan Movement was a continuation of the Khilafat Movement and Muhammad Ali Jinnah was the leader who spearheaded the campaign for Pakistan as separate homeland for the Muslims of the Indian sub-continent. The British rule over Palestine came to an end in 1917 without a proper mandate regarding transfer of power unlike in the case of Indian sub-continent in 1947. Nevertheless, Britain had a role in creation of Israel as well as Pakistan.

The Great Britain, lately, has decided to leave membership of the European Union. The UK’s decision is being termed as ‘Brexit.’ However, formal agreement regarding the new protocols will be finalised and presented by 31st August. Nevertheless, Europe will witness more important role of Germany, France and Italy. In fact, these three aforementioned countries, choosing to remain in the European Union, have decided to flex muscles in the Maghreb region (North Africa) with more pronounced and intense pursuit of policy-making.

The remaining strong European countries in the EU have lately been active in Libya (North African country). Turkey had announced to support Fayez Sarraj against Khalifa Haftar. Sarraj is the head of the Libyan National Government in Tripoli while Khalifa Haftar is the leader of the parallel Libyan Governmental body with capital in Tobruk city. The rival factions are vying for credibility to be recognised as the legitimate Libyan Government. In 2019, Haftar announced to launch final attacks to gain complete control of Libya. However, the matter gained global importance when Turkey forced the European regional powers (France, Germany, Italy, UK and Russia) in January 2020 to come to terms regarding the agreement for Political solution to Libyan Conflict.

At a time when Trump presented the Middle East Peace Plan as ‘deal of the century,’ the role of Egypt (another North African country) became more important for the western powers in Mediterranean sea (Middle East, North Africa and Europe) since Israel also managed to clinch a gas deal with Cyprus and Greece; a move which angered Turkey and led Edrogan to intensify support for the Sarraj-led Libyan National Government in Tripoli. Egyptian President Fateh Al Sisi decided to launch massive military exercises titled ‘Qader (Able) Maneuver 2020’ at the Libyan border. Egypt and UAE support the rival Libyan faction controlled by Khalifa Haftar. The agreement for political solution was the initial decision of forming ‘5+5’ Joint commission wherein 5 representatives represented each Libyan faction. North Africa referred as ‘Maghreb’ in the Arabic language is also mentioned in the Islamic eschatology with special reference to role of Romans (west) in Egypt and the people of Maghreb (North Africa).

Nevertheless, the Middle East Peace Plan has forced Turkey to question Russian role in Syria with hidden apprehensions regarding level of Russian-Israeli cooperation, coordination and collaboration. In a dangerous move posing huge risks, Turkish Military launched ‘massive-scale’ attacks on Syrian forces in the Idlib city during February 2020. According to the Astana Process, Syria’s Idlib is dealt as de-escalation zone. However, Turkish leadership feels that these matters will constrain Turkey if appropriate timely action is not taken in Libya and Syria, especially after the Mideast Peace Plan. Furthermore, US has recently also brokered ‘Nile Dam’ agreement between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia. US and Israel are strengthening relations around the periphery and core Middle East. The representatives from three Gulf countries, including Egypt, also attended the Trump’s Press conference on the Mideast Plan. In a pre-emptive move, US eliminated top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani few weeks before the announcement to present the Middle East Peace Plan was formally done. Pakistani leadership has categorically told Middle Eastern and Western nations that it will not become part of any new war in Middle East or any part of the world.

Enter Pakistan

Pakistan launched first-ever meeting program with African leadership and representatives through ‘Look Africa Policy Initiative (LAPI).’ The Pakistani cabinet ministers including commerce and foreign minister along with trade representative also attended the event held in Nairobi, Kenya in January 2020. The Kenyan Prime Minister addressed the gathering and hinted at the great potential of Africa-Pakistan relations capable of allowing extensive mutual benefits. This event is part of the ‘Economic diplomacy,’ which is the brainchild of the Strategic Policy Planning Cell (SPPC) to pursue National Security Policy.

In a world where the West has a clear edge over East, Pakistan needs to also strengthen and balancd relations with the West and East on equal grounds and also develop such relative understanding which serves the National Interest of Pakistan. This means that Abrahamic idea should be part of Diplomacy where Foreign Policy should be based upon idea of mutual co-existence in order to take account of strategic dynamics and contemporary issues. Middle East has become epicenter of politics with renewed focus on Political economy. The policy endeavour has sought to gain ground for better leverage. US President stated at sidelines of Davos summit that relations between America and Pakistan have never been so good. Pakistan has been working on improving its stature amongst global community.

The 'Abrahamic Perspective of Strategic Governance' needs to be developed in context of the Ruling state of the world to deal with issues, problems and challenges of the contemporary era. 

Rise of Israel

The Middle East Peace Plan serving as the ‘deal of the century’ is launching pad for Israel to exert diplomatic efforts to establish its legitimacy and credibility in the region and the world. As Turkey envisages its role in Syria and Libya, Israel is on a move to garner initial support from Africa. According to Islamic eschatology, the future potential role of Israel will be as the ‘Ruling State of the world.’  In Pakistan, this requires response through Strategic Vision based on ‘Abrahamic approach.’ Israeli PM visited Uganda in same week as LAPI event was held in Kenya. Furthermore, Israeli PM stated that Africa will become more important for Israel in the future. Israeli PM Netanyahu met the head of Supreme Sudanese council which led to furore in the Sudanese circles. The role of Egypt, Libya and other African countries has been gaining importance for US-Israeli-European leadership as witnessed in Libya. 

Political events in North Africa since June 2019 depict the situation of ‘Post-Arab spring Middle East.’ The Sudanese uprising, death of Egyptian ex-President Morsi and Ethiopian unrest at a time when US brokered the Nile Dam agreement can be identified as part of symbolic interpretationism of eschatological events occurring in the Middle East. It requires more dedicated and committed study to understand how Pakistan should adjust and adapt to the rise of ‘new ruling state of the world.’ It is a matter which is mostly discussed through Abrahamic lens on basis of Quranic methodology utilised for approach of studying the field of Islamic eschatology. If Pakistan and Israel cross paths in Africa (especially, the Maghreb), then what will be the outcome as both countries are intensively pursuing economic diplomacy on regional and global level? This necessitates the development of 'Abrahamic Perspective of Strategic Governance.'

However, the most prime and important question is why and how does Africa, in the context of Modern Middle Eastern politics, play an integral part in National Security Policy of US and European countries?

The answer lies in initially identifying, understanding and applying ‘journalistic approach’ (why, what, how, whence, where?) regarding prime objective to follow goals serving the National Interest.

MARCH 2020: Turkey, NATO, US, EU Versus Syria, Russia

As Iranian and Russian role becomes more congruent in terms of dependence on the role of the west, Turkey will continue exerting influence in the Middle Eastern region. Iranian influence in Yemen, Syria and Iraq has waned throughout initial months of 2020. The Chinese presence in areas of its geo-strategic interest has witnessed massive draw down in otherwise active pursuit of goals associated with Foreign Policy. In such scenario, Turkey struggled to cling to its uncompromised stance. It has increased direct contact with Russians, Europeans and Americans in the Middle East. Pakistan has also initiated to make strides in the trajectory similar to Turkish Foreign Policy as indicated in US ‘Afghanistan Peace deal’ and LAPI initiative. Turkey has proposed US and Russia to consider decision for Joint Management of Oil fields located in Deir-Ez-Zor through which River Euphrates runs its course in Syria. Furthermore, Turkey has significantly increased its cooperation, coordination and collaboration with Italy, France, UK and Germany. Turkey opened the floodgates of refuges to Europe in order to convince NATO to intervene against Assad which would also place Turkey in control of security in Northern Syria through NATO’s help. However, NATO initially resisted any such motive as Turkey intends to direct new policy as the 100 year treaty comes to an end which has prompted Erdogan to pre-emptively intervene in Syria in order to revive Turkey's 'Ottoman' grandeur to deal with West in Syria. Nevertheless, strengthening of US-Turkey relations has led NATO to reconsider its options. This development occurred as Erdogan stated that Turkey wants active NATO presence and role in the Middle East as Russian Military delegation pushed Turkey to Respect Syrian Sovereignty. UN and EU states have urged Syrian regime and Russia to stop Idlib attacks. Turkey’s recent ‘display of power’ allows it to preserve its diplomatic, economic and security endeavours. European countries such as Germany, UK, France and Italy put their weight behind the NATO ally Turkey as they demanded Putin’s Russia to reduce role of Russian forces and presence in Syria after Erdogan met Putin in February. Therefore, the ‘Peace Treaties’ and ‘Security Pacts’ for joint agreements or mutual alliance between West and East can potentially increase in near and long-term future. This also forms part of the Prophetic traditions which mention ‘Peace agreements’ between Ar-Rum (West / Europe and Christians) and Muslims which forms most critical point of reference in eschatological study as Aleppo refers to Dabiq and, Amaq refers to Idlib as mentioned in Hadith. This also potentially pertains to West's interest in the intent to ultimately counter Turkey's attempt for controlling Syria through the plan aimed at exhausting of potential Turkish 'strategic plans.' It can be ascertained on basis of Quranic methodology that community of Muslims as part of History of Islam is poised to witness two ages (First and second / last / messianic age) which leads researchers to discuss 'Governance-Ruling' system of Muslims according to the context of the Ruling state of the world. The first age extended from the beginning of the period of Rashidun Caliphate to end of Abbasid Caliphate in Cairo. The transfer of 'Institution of Caliphate' from Arabs to Turks marks the beginning of the second age of Islam. 

In the period of 'Governance-Ruling' system of Umayyad dynasty, the so-called ‘Caliphate’ sent Yazid to capture Constantinople in an attempt to establish legitimacy and credibility of Umayyad dynasty in order to be equal and similar to Rashidun Caliphate's success in Persia but the Umayyad attack on Byzantium Constantinople launched from Dabiq met complete and utter failure. Abbasids halted in Asia minor in campaign against Byzantines but lost 'Levantine' Syria to Crusaders supported by Byzantium. Before referencing the third phase of Governance (transition from weak dynasties to cruel despots i.e., shift of power from Abbasids and Umayyads to Mamluks and Ottomans), it is inherently important to relate to importance of the role of 'modern-day' Byzantium associated with Ar-Rum of Quran (West / Christians / Europe). The political events during Rashidun Caliphate should be given more attention on basis of their relevance for the community of Muslims and History of Islam with special reference to Arab-Byzantine war associated with Holy Prophet’s command for Tabuk expedition of Usama Bin Zayd Bin Haritha (adopted son of Prophet Muhammad) which was realised at time of first Rashidun Caliph. The Arab / Muslim role and conduct regarding the dealing with Byzantine during time of Prophethood and First Rashidun Caliph provides basis of religious symbolism to follow eschatological position on evidence-based reasoning in Second / Last / Messianic Age. In contemporary era, Greater Syria (Palestine, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and Core Syria) holds importance for East and West (harbouring the Ruling state of the world) in terms of Peace agreements and Security pacts between Muslims and Ar-Rum (West / Europe / Christian with possible reference to both, Pro-Israeli NATO and Russia). The first age and second age of Islam can be divided according to 'Governance-Ruling' system which can further be compared on basis of the lack and absence of the 'Law of succession' and 'Institution of the Pledge of Allegiance.'

The third phase of ‘Governance-Ruling system of Ummah’ witnessed Ottoman Empire successfully managing to cement its position as Caliphate after it managed to defeat Mamluks (who had refused to pledge complete allegiance to Abbasids in Baghdad and Cairo leading to Kurdish Ayyubid-Egyptian Mamluk rivalry at time of Mongol invasion and Crusader onslaught) at Battle of Marj Dabiq fought in 1514 at Dabiq (Azaz, Aleppo). Therefore, Amaq region (Syrian Idlib and Turkish cities of Iskenderun and Antakya) has importance in second / last or Messianic age similar to role of Dabiq in the first age. Interestingly, Kurdish Ayyubids possessed major role during the transition phase of rulership regarding changes in the concept of power, idea of authourity and practice of governance amongst community of Muslims ranging on spectrum from (i) Pious caliphate (Rashidun) to (ii) weak dynasties (Abbasids and Umayyads) to (iii) cruel despots (Mamluks in Egypt and India) and (iv) tyrannical dictators. The events in Idlib since January 2020 are completely relevant for International Strategy and political analysts in terms of religious symbolism concerning Politics, Economy, Diplomacy and Military in contemporary era (Messianic age). This is part of eschatological position regarding evidence-based reasoning concerning ‘Political Value of symbolic interpretationism.’ The Peace treaties and Security pacts representing deals with Ar-Rum (West) were mentioned in the Prophetic traditions which can be confirmed through 'Idlib situation,' as Turkey seeks to retain its aggressive posture in Northern Syria with NATO's assistance in bringing Russia to the negotiation table. The question which arises is that how and why Turkey and Pakistan will establish their position to negotiate with Western countries and bloc in order to safeguard and preserve their National Interest at a time when economic, financial and monetary system is witnessing turbulences despite the reduction in oil prices due to Russia-KSA price confrontation as NATO also urges Turkey to drop s-400 deal with Russia. NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg presser on Syria's Idlib was a precursor to forcing Russia to meet Turkish demands with more pressure added through statement of US envoy to Syria that US is pondering upon increasing NATO’s potential role in Syria’s Idlib. Therefore, the eschatological position regarding ‘evidence-based reasoning’ pertaining to the status of Damascus, Jerusalem, Istanbul (Constantinople) and Madinah in Messianic / Second / Last Age is credibly confirmed as realistic (symbolic role of Absolute Truth in the movement of truth according to Days of Allah) in order to validate the role of Prophetic traditions concerning the events occurring in contemporary era in context of deals and agreements for mutual Security Pacts and Peace treaties.