A numerologist might make something fancy out of 2-4-6, an accountant can find something interesting in these numbers, but for a Karachiite, the real value of these three digits combined is beyond all of this.  The heart of Mutahida’s power: NA-246 is the area where MQM has reigned supreme for decades. It is their fort, the symbol of their strength. NA-246 houses Nine Zero, MQM’s power hub and lifeline. A large chunk of Federal B area, Karimabad and Ayesha Manzil, among others, are considered a traditional strong hold of Mutahida Qaumi Movement. From this area, MQM has won all of the last three elections. Why MQM is so passionate and confident about contesting from the said constituency, is obvious. But what if they lose? This is the question that brings Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf into the equation.

The implications of this loss on MQM are fairly obvious, but what can this possible win earn for PTI?  Is this about just one national assembly seat, or something else that most of us cannot see but feel.

Whether PTI likes it or not but MQM does have a vote bank. It might not be the sole representative of Urdu speaking Pakistanis living mainly in Karachi, but it won’t be unjust to call it a strong voice representing them in the parliament. MQM is a party that is mainly criticized for its alleged links with men in shady businesses. It is sometimes also accused of mixing violence with politics, something that was not too evident in Pakistani politics before the establishment of this party. How did they manage to survive so many political changes, how the members of the party were many a times discriminated against, the story of these escapades and their political coquetry and its impact is a separate debate altogether. But the investigation into the Imran Farooq Case, the probe into the money laundering case in the United Kingdom, the popping up of Saulat Mirzas: these aren’t just coincidences. MQM’s leader Altaf Hussain has insisted on resigning from his post as the party’s leader more than once in the recent past, and the sudden outburst from PTI’s leadership has surely pushed MQM into a corner in the last few months. The upcoming polls have only added to the anxiety of a party that is continuously playing at the back foot, condemning one thing and offering explanations for another every second week.

On the other hand, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, despite all protests against the government last year did not dissolve the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly; rather it chose to contest the Senate elections to everyone’s surprise since there was no judicial commission announced by that time.  What assurance was PTI relying on, if any? And long before their successful negotiations could bear fruit in the form of a commission, PTI announced to fight the NA 246 elections under the same “dubious” election commission to win a seat for exactly the same “illegitimate” Assembly they had announced to resign from 7 months ago. The public has witnessed how Imran Khan once wanted to bring Altaf Hussain to court over the 12 May issue, and how he held public meetings with the cooperation of the same party later.

All of these mixed signals point only in one direction: there is something PTI has been well aware of through these times; they were not ill-informed at any point. It is only the people of Pakistan who are shown one card at a time; the ones who have the deck in their hand know their next move very well.

At this juncture, the polls of NA-246 can play a pivotal role in setting the stage for the next general elections. One must not forget that there was once a party before MQM that represented Karachi for years and that was Jamat-e-Islami but was replaced by MQM at a certain point in history.  Power sharing with the PPP has already turned into a certain pattern, dividing Sindh into rural and urban areas. Can PTI be aiming at replacing PPP? Seems unlikely. The most logical reason to keenly chase the NA 246 seat might be an effort to win over Karachi once and for all.

What made Nabeel Gabol resign so suddenly is still a mystery but if PTI somehow manages to secure this seat it will partly answer the riddle: it would change the dynamics of politics in Karachi for years to come.

It is clear that the promised land of Karachi is in no way less valuable than the planes of Punjab for PTI – much to MQM’s dismay.