PML-N’s gaffes and indispensable JIT

The BBC hard-talk genius, the 15- year old master-mind billionaire, the blatant and proven National Television liar and manipulator, and their old narcissist, pro-Zia, Attock-Jail veteran, (Who sobbed miserably) proving his credentials for a tweet "wo mard nahin jo dar jae aur KSA bhaag jae" aka Godfather and their closest and creepiest self-confessed money Launderer (relative) in Supreme Court and their nexus of cronies including the great ministers who can easily outcompete each other in sheer competence, merit and brilliance in formulating strategies and world-class reformative policies under the noses of PTI's epic institutional failures highlighted by ‘The Economist’ especially sighting No-health reforms.

Who can forget the beneficiaries of great economic, institutional, and social programmes of N-rule in Punjab since the ‘80s. I can't believe how swiftly they have transformed extractive institution into inclusive ones. I must mention the metro, world-famous laptop scheme, Danish schools, and other countless institutional reforms soon to be emulated by other developing economies.

It will be unfair, if I don't mention the Roshan hospitals of Punjab equipped with state-of-the-art facilities, fit to provide medication to all mankind without any discrimination. Elite don't visit abroad for stomach ache now. All Lahore based doctors have complete specialization in most of the areas of medicine.

The fire brigade department employees no longer go on to drive chingchi rickshaw for extra money, especially, when called for emergencies. They no longer state in case of emergency that keys to main areas are with worker on another shift on rickshaw.

Unknown numbers of new schools are built and refurbished. Did you not see in the news, TV channels praising the CM as they continue to move their children from private to government institutions? Improvements in universities and their world class PhD programmes should be mentioned and Pakistan continues to move high up in the rankings under CM reformist agenda.

I will not point out how they have polished and transformed election commission of Pakistan, NAB and FIA.

Did I mention the stock-market reforms of N-league which created earth-shattering number of jobs in real sector? It is evident through rising imports and ever decreasing exports. This has served the purpose well and didn’t create any kind of imbalance in Pakistani economy.

May China live long to serve the purpose of its own country and people. CPEC-so called “GAME CHANGER” has come to rescue the incompetence. If it was N-league which had changed the fortune through trade, then Pakistan’s bilateral trade with China and other leading countries would not have nosedived.

In last few years, Chinese products have flooded the Pakistani market and are largely responsible for $20bn-plus trade deficit of Pakistan making things look exceedingly skeptical for Pakistan. Pakistani exports to China have increased sharply in the last decade or so but of late, share of exports to China has plunged from nine per cent in 2014-15 to seven per cent in 2016-17.

With CPEC not sighted as a main reason for trade deficit by analysts, Pakistan’s trade deficit has swollen to 42% to a record $29.99 billion in last fiscal year including the trade deficit with China which has ballooned to $6.2 billion.

Since, the start of Nawaz government, Chinese exports have increased sharply from $9.3bn to $16.5bn.

China’s domination and Pakistani reliance on Chinese products is reflected through continues rise in share of imports from China which is increasing at steady pace. It has amplified to 28% in FY2016-17 from 23% in FY2014-15.

Furthermore, though, Pakistan has been losing the textile market share to new competitors in international market for some time now. But, in last fiscal year, textile which accounts for 61% of Pakistan’s exports had declined by meager 0.9% as compared to a staggering 8.2% in FY2015-16, which is certainly welcome sign for the economy.

Recently, it has been the norm that if government gets criticised, it cries foul and blames the conspiracy against it. Government apparently believes that right to rule comes with no questions being asked? Contrary to this, circumstances have been rather different from past traditions, with so much agitation from opposition parties. It must show the improvements in real economic position to avoid public thrashing in upcoming elections.

Chinese, though appear over-committed but, it should not be mistaken for an out of the way favour, rather it appears to be a calculated game-plan to make dividends for long period of time for the country.

Going forward, Pakistan must formulate its own vision and policy to slowly come of the shadows of China and weighs the pros and cons of this economic relationship on merit without prejudice. Otherwise, future may not be as rosy as dreamed. Putting all its eggs in one basket and relying completely on Chinese to avert disasters in Pakistani economy only through CPEC cannot be deemed a safe bet.

Since, the Nawaz led government took over; more than 3.15 million people have fled the country. This included the record brain drain as more than 1.2 million highly qualified and highly skilled people have migrated for better economic opportunities as compared to 0.38 million in the PPP’s 5-year rule. This is an unprecedentedly high rate and is extremely alarming and questions the economic policies of the current regime which is yet to provide financially secure and comfortable life style to its highly educated citizens.

The beneficiaries of N-rule will be eagerly waiting to lament the JIT, if decision is against the kingship, otherwise, they may celebrate like the way they did when the JIT was formed by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. If jubilations returned, it will be the start of another testing phase for this country desperate to get a true Leader.

Waqas Shabbir is a Derby Business School graduate in Finance, currently working as a freelance writer having interest in South Asian and European economics. He previously worked as a study advisor at University of Derby

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