South Asia has yet to live up to its promise. It has an enormous population, massive agriculture, mineral, water, and skilled, semi-skilled manpower resources, a vibrant industrial base, a multitude of technology-savvy youth, widespread business acumen etc and unlimited ambition and drive to succeed. If we add China to the mix then the potential of South Asia and China together reaches phenomenal proportions. Why have the peoples of this region-at-large not come together to exploit this enormous albeit latent opportunity thus far? Clearly, their bilateral disputes have literally hamstrung the region, stunted its collective growth, kept its peoples divided, and evolved into a formidable economic powerhouse that could play a meaningful role at the Asian, extra-regional and global levels too.
Pakistan has been blessed with a unique geographical location. It is hemmed in by the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan Mountain ranges in the North and the Arabian Sea in the South. To its West-North West lie two of the world’s largest deposits of fossil fuels, minerals, and rare earth metals/materials in the Middle East and Central Asian Republics. To its East-North East lie two of the largest populations, markets, and economies of the world in India and China. It would make enormous economic sense to create connectivity between the largest deposits of resources and two of the largest, booming global markets. A plethora of East-West and North-South trade corridors can thus be created to link the Middle East and the CARs to South Asia and China. Oil and gas pipelines will only make economic sense were they to reach India and China, where the demands would be phenomenal. In the larger South Asian context that is only possible through/across Pakistan. The BRI-CPEC is already creating the required regional connectivity and economic interdependence. It would become extremely more significant and economically beneficial were India to join it. That would immediately create linkages for it to the Middle East, Europe (through Iran and Turkey), the CARs, western China, and even Russia through Pakistan. An economically sound proposition!
However, this potential economic bonanza is held hostage by the bilateral disputes between India and Pakistan and India and China. Therefore, there must be an unmistakable desire and determination to resolve these long outstanding issues. A case thus, can be made to create an unmistakable, unavoidable economic stake in CM and CR in the region. A realistic cost-benefit analysis will bring home the massive advantages of peace, crisis management and resolution, regional connectivity and economic interdependence!
There are two options for CM and CR; peaceful-diplomatic and kinetic!
In the peaceful and diplomatic process, the disputes could be addressed bilaterally, as is the case between China and India. They have had a series of talks on the LAC and President Xi Jinping and PM Modi have recently agreed to patrolling along the LAC, during the BRICS summit in Russia. An economic stake (US $ 130 billion-plus bilateral trade) exists in their relationship. India’s membership in the clearly anti-China QUAD creates unnecessary doubts. It could seek friends and alliances within the region. A war with China to serve the US-led West’s interests would be catastrophic for it, its people and the region. Similarly, India and Pakistan could either move the UNSC to implement its Resolutions on the Kashmir issue and hold the promised plebiscite or they could simultaneously initiate talks under the Simla Agreement or even seek arbitration. The impasse however must be broken and economic interaction reinvigorated. The resolution of the Kashmir issue could literally open up South Asia’s fortunes. A common market of close to 2 billion people (over 3.5 billion including China) could serve the region splendidly. The East-West and North-South trade corridors could expand to include all SAARC countries as well. Through Pakistan they could be linked to the Middle East, CARs, western China, Russia and Europe! A win-win situation for all.
On the kinetic front, India has had a series of punch-ups and skirmishes on the LAC with the Chinese. With Pakistan, its engagement across the LOC and Working Boundary includes cross-LOC/border firing and shelling, imaginary “surgical strikes”, limited wars like Kargil, all-out wars as in 1948, 1965, and 1971. Wars - limited and all-out ones, skirmishes, cross-LOC raids, airstrikes, etc have not helped resolve the Kashmir dispute. False flag operations and hysteric calls for “invading and conquering” Azad Jammu & Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan have remained ineffective. Altering the status of Jammu, Kashmir, and Ladakh has had no practical bearing on the validity, legal, and political status of the dispute itself. Transnational terrorism through Afghanistan and Iran continues to be a manageable nuisance for Pakistan. India has failed to browbeat Pakistan into submission on the Kashmir issue and thus must now try more innovative and imaginative approaches. An economic stake in peace, perhaps might work wonders!
China, India, and Pakistan therefore need to carry out a deep cost-benefit analysis of their mutual disputes. They are bound to ascertain that wars are the least cost-effective and that they ought to resolve their bilateral disputes themselves, post haste. An economic stake in peaceful co-existence might create the strategic environment and rationale for mutually satisfying conflict management and resolution. They need to show the desired strategic vison and political sagacity and will to create a special regional trilateral forum (with the Kashmiris co-opted). This forum should then create the desired peaceful environment, lay down the preliminary Confidence Building Measures and further organize, coordinate, oversee, and help execute conflict/crisis management and resolution in the region. It is doable. A regional approach to managing and resolving all bilateral disputes is bound to find favour in the region, too. Peaceful and mutually supporting CM and CR are bound to pay lasting dividends all around!
Imran Malik
The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army. He can be reached at im.k846@gmail.com and tweets @K846Im.
