First Scene: It was September 4, 2021, just over two weeks since the Afghan Taliban had seized control of Kabul’s government. In the lobby of Kabul’s Five-Star Hotel, a sudden commotion stirred the atmosphere. A brisk and smartly dressed figure, General Faiz Hamid, the head of Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), held a warm cup of tea in his hands. With each sip, he exuded an undeniable air of confidence. Also present in the lobby was Pakistan’s ambassador to Kabul, Mansoor Ahmed Khan. As curious bystanders inquired about the purpose of the General’s presence, he responded with unwavering assurance, saying, “Don’t worry, everything will be fine soon.”

However, in the days to come, it became apparent that Pakistan’s Afghan policy was adopting a terrifying turn, resembling a nightmare. After the events of September 4, those observing the conduct of the Afghan Taliban residing in Pakistan began to regret the treatment meted out to them, thinking, “I wish it hadn’t come to this.”

Second Scene: Exactly two years later, on September 4, 2023, Pakistan’s vigilant Prime Minister Anwar Ul Haq Kakar was engaged in a discussion with foreign correspondents in Islamabad. Confident and articulate, he hinted at strong support from Rawalpindi’s establishment. He was asked about the Pakistani government’s plans regarding the latest influx of migrants, particularly those who had arrived following the Taliban’s assumption of power in Afghanistan. Without hesitation, Prime Minister Kakar responded at length, surpassing expectations. He emphasised assuring action against illegal Afghan migrants, providing legal documentation, and repatriating those without proper paperwork. In the subsequent days, armed attacks on Pakistan’s forces from Afghanistan surged, shifting from daily incidents to multiple assaults per day. Pakistani soldiers faced relentless militant retaliation, while Kabul demanded an end to these activities within Pakistan’s borders. Kabul warned that if the attacks continued, they would consider the internally based Pakistani Taliban responsible, viewing it as Pakistan’s internal problem rather than a refugee situation in Afghanistan.

Third Scene: On September 6th, as Pakistan celebrated its Defense Day and paid homage to its martyrs, armed individuals from Afghanistan’s Nuristan province launched a severe attack on a Pakistani armed forces camp in Chitral. Pakistan’s security forces responded, eventually regaining control after several days. Interestingly, the Kabul government distanced itself from this incident, regarding it as Pakistan’s internal matter. Yet, this incident prompted Pakistan’s strategic policymakers to take decisive action.

Fourth Scene: On October 3rd, under the leadership of Prime Minister Anwar Ul Haq Kakar, a meeting of the National Action Plan Apex Committee was held, which was also attended by the Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir. Announcing the decisions made in the meeting, Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti stated that Afghan nationals residing in Pakistan without proper documentation were being warned to leave the country before November 1st. Failure to comply would result in legal action, and they would be forcefully repatriated to Afghanistan.

With this announcement, law enforcement agencies sprang into action. Within approximately 24 hours, around 1,100 Afghan nationals, who were found to lack proper documentation, were taken into custody. It was noted that not only were these individuals lacking proper documentation, but many of them were also identified as being involved in street crimes and terrorism-related activities, carrying Afghan nationality officially. Undocumented Afghans fall under Pakistan’s 1946 Foreigners Act provisions, while ACC holders and those with protection concerns can seek UNHCR assistance.

Furthermore, a fourth category includes Afghans who arrived in Pakistan after August 2021, estimated at approximately 600,000 by the government. In the current circumstances, among the people who are likely to be deported from Pakistan, more than a million individuals include approximately 600,000 who entered Pakistan without proper documentation or whose visas have expired after August 2021, and there is no possibility of their return. Most of them wish to relocate to Europe or America, but currently, that seems highly improbable.

On September 5th, Pakistani and Afghan forces clashed at the Chaman border, where Pakistani forces demonstrated restraint. However, this incident points to increasing pressure on militant groups, suggesting their increasing audacity. In these challenging circumstances, Pakistan must adopt a diplomatic approach meticulously calibrated to navigate the strained relationships with Europe, America, and Middle Eastern political powers. This diplomatic strategy aims to exert pressure on the Kabul regime by aligning with international forces, compelling them to acknowledge their international responsibilities, and avoiding entanglement in any new conflicts.

Last Scene: On September 5, 2023, sitting at the negotiating table in Tibet, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani and Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi, both caretakers, are discussing an extremely challenging situation facing both countries. The outcome is crystal clear.