ISLAMABAD   -  Once a hung parliament with three major parties having a shared number of seats in the National Assembly, the coalition government has gradually ‘achieved’ the numbers required in the National Assembly to amend the Constitution.

In the current political climate, the number game in the parliament is taking centre stage as the government and opposition manoeuvre around a proposed constitutional amendment to extend the tenure of the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Qazi Faez Isa.

As Justice Isa is going to retire on October 25, 2024, the ruling coalition is preparing a legislative move to increase the retirement age of Supreme Court judges. This amendment, if passed, would not only extend Justice Isa’s tenure but also reshape the judiciary’s structure for years to come.

To pass such a constitutional amendment, the government needed a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, meaning they required 224 votes out of 336 seats. The ruling coalition – led by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan People’s Party - holds 212 seats, leaving them 12 votes short.

But the recent political developments suggest that the government has aligned with Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazl) and secured support from several independent members, bringing their count to the required “224 or even more.”

This legislative effort is part of a broader strategy by the government to solidify its control. Political insiders have confirmed that intense consultations between the coalition partners and opposition factions have been ongoing, with the government’s legal team having completed a draft for the proposed amendment.

Key members of the government, such as Khawaja Muhammed Asif, have expressed confidence that the ruling coalition now has the necessary majority to move forward.

The opposition, led by Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) and its allies, are vehemently opposed to any move that extends the tenure of the Chief Justice.

PTI’s senior leader and former National Assembly Speaker, Asad Qaiser, has publicly stated that they have information on the government’s planned amendments and that they will block any attempt to alter the judiciary’s retirement rules.

The opposition views the amendment as a direct assault on judicial independence, branding it an example of “judicial engineering” to serve the government’s political interests.

PTI, which still commands significant parliamentary strength with 80 members, is gearing up for protests and rallies to mobilize public opinion against the amendment.

Justice Qazi Faez Isa is known for his firm stance on judicial independence and accountability. His decisions and rulings have often placed him at odds with the political elite, making the government’s move to extend his tenure particularly significant. If extended, his decisions could shape legal and constitutional interpretations for an extended period, affecting issues such as electoral laws, executive powers, and corruption cases.

If the government succeeds in passing the amendment, it would signal a major victory for the ruling coalition. It would also set a precedence for future governments to legislate around judicial appointments and retirements to align with their political agendas.

On the other hand, if the opposition manages to block the amendment, it would be a blow to the government’s legislative authority and could embolden PTI and its allies to further challenge the coalition on other contentious issues.

Despite their confidence, the government faces significant hurdles. Not only must they secure the required votes, but they must also navigate the strong resistance from the opposition and manage public sentiment, which could shift as protests gain momentum.

The ruling coalition’s reliance on smaller parties and independents like JUI-F, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQMP), and others exposes them to vulnerabilities.

Any rift or dissent within these factions could derail their plans, making the vote a tightly contested affair. Securing a two-thirds majority in the Senate will be another critical challenge, as the numbers are not as certain there.

The upcoming weeks will be decisive for Pakistan’s political landscape as the ruling coalition seeks to assert its influence over the judiciary through constitutional amendments. While they claim to have the necessary numbers, the opposition remains a force determined to block any perceived “erosion of judicial independence.”

This battle is a reflection of the broader political struggle for control, with far-reaching implications for the rule of law and democratic governance.

Yesterday, PPP supremo President Asif Ali Zardari hosted a dinner in honour of several prominent parliamentarians from political parties who are part of the coalition.

At the event, he stressed the critical importance of fostering political stability and strengthening parliamentary democracy in Pakistan as essential steps for steering the nation towards sustainable development.

In light of the multifaceted challenges facing the country, including political, economic, and security issues, the President highlighted the need for political unity to overcome these hurdles.

Key figures in attendance included Chairman Senate Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani, Federal Minister for Religious Affairs Chaudhary Salik Hussain, Governor Punjab Sardar Saleem Haider Khan, Governor Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Faisal Karim Kundi, Chief Minister Balochistan Mir Sarfaraz Ahmed Bugti, Awami National Party President Senator Aimal Wali Khan, former Prime Minister Anwarul Haq Kakar, and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party President Abdul Aleem Khan, along with other senior political leaders.

Moving forward, the coalition parties expect the PTI to disintegrate and make it easier for them to complete their term. Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting, Attaullah Tarar, claims the growing internal divisions within the PTI would result in disintegration. According to Tarar, these divisions could potentially lead to the formation of a forward bloc or splinter group.

Meanwhile, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Governor Faisal Karim Kundi urged Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur to take vote of confidence from the provincial assembly. He expressed concerns about the deteriorating law and order situation in the province, stating that the Chief Minister has failed to restore peace.

Some treasury members believe the PTI-led government in Khyber Pakhtunkhaw might also fall due to rifts within the PTI.