“A state must first establish itself as a regional power before aspiring to become a superpower.” This assertion by John Mearsheimer underscores the fundamental dynamics of international relations, particularly in South Asia. As India and China vie for dominance in the region, both nations are investing significant resources and diplomatic efforts to solidify their status as regional powers. India, with its historical ties and cultural influence, seeks to maintain its leadership through initiatives that promote economic cooperation and strategic partnerships. Meanwhile, China is actively expanding its footprint through investments in infrastructure projects that enhance its influence across South Asia. This geopolitical contest is critical as the balance of power shifts, impacting the future of the region.

The recent political unrest in Bangladesh, culminating in the collapse of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s government, has sent ripples across the region. Analysts warn that this instability poses significant challenges for India, further complicating its influence in South Asia amid China’s growing assertiveness. Hasina’s resignation, fuelled by widespread student protests and public discontent, marks a critical juncture for Bangladesh’s political future. With calls for more democratic governance and accountability echoing throughout the state, the fallout from this upheaval could reshape Bangladesh’s relationships with its neighbours, particularly India and China. Historically, Hasina’s administration has maintained a strategic partnership with India, fostering cooperation on various fronts, including trade, security, and counterterrorism. However, the rise of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which has traditionally taken a less cooperative approach towards India, could realign these dynamics, opening doors for China to deepen its influence in Bangladesh.

The implications of a potential shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape extend beyond its borders. As the regional balance of power evolves, the question arises: can India maintain its position as the preeminent power in South Asia, or is it destined to cede ground to an assertive China? The answer lies in India’s ability to adapt its foreign policy to the changing realities of the region. This shift is not confined to Bangladesh alone. India has observed similar trends in Sri Lanka and Nepal, where Chinese investments and diplomatic overtures have gained traction. In Sri Lanka, for instance, the Hambantota Port, developed with Chinese funding, has raised concerns about sovereignty and indebtedness. Nepal’s recent alignment with China on various infrastructure projects has signalled a willingness to embrace Chinese investment over Indian partnership. These developments illustrate a broader trend of South Asian nations re-evaluating their relationships with India in favour of a more diversified approach. The geopolitical implications of these shifts are profound. India’s loss of influence in South Asia not only affects its regional aspirations but also has wider ramifications for its security and economic interests. A China-friendly Bangladesh could align itself with Beijing’s strategic objectives, challenging India’s interests in the Bay of Bengal and increasing China’s military presence in the region. Such a scenario would complicate India’s security calculations and necessitate a reassessment of its defence posture.

Moreover, the growing presence of China in South Asia raises questions about the future of multilateral cooperation in the region. India has traditionally positioned itself as a leader of regional organisations such as SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). However, with China leveraging its economic clout to forge closer ties with South Asian nations, the effectiveness of these organisations could be compromised. It is also crucial for India to maintain peaceful relations with Pakistan. A stable and cooperative relationship with its western neighbour would not only alleviate security concerns but also enhance regional stability, allowing India to focus its attention on countering China’s influence. Dialogue and diplomacy with Pakistan can create opportunities for economic collaboration, fostering a more integrated South Asian region that can collectively address the challenges posed by external powers. A cooperative India-Pakistan relationship would serve as a stabilising factor in South Asia.

India’s challenge lies not only in countering China’s influence but also in addressing its domestic issues that have led to the erosion of its regional standing. Rising nationalism, economic challenges, and perceptions of India’s intentions in the region have created an environment in which neighbouring countries are increasingly hesitant to align too closely with New Delhi. To regain its footing, India must prioritise diplomatic engagement, economic cooperation, and regional development initiatives that resonate with the aspirations of South Asian nations.

The current geopolitical landscape in South Asia is marked by uncertainty and competition, with India at a critical crossroads. The potential collapse of a friendly government in Bangladesh could herald a new era of Chinese influence in the region, challenging India’s longstanding dominance. To navigate these turbulent waters, India must adopt a proactive and adaptive foreign policy that prioritises engagement, cooperation, and a renewed commitment to regional partnerships. The stakes are high, and the time for India to act is now—before it cedes its role in shaping the future of South Asia to China.

Dr. Gul.i.Ayesha Bhatti
The writer is a current affairs analyst. She can be reached at guleayeshabhatti@gmail.com