It is a delightful fact that China and Pakistan have unity of thinking and singleness of purpose. Both are centered on ensuring that CPEC becomes successful within the stipulated time frame for project completion. This oneness of thinking and purpose gives a lot of strength to China-Pakistan bilateralism and long-standing partnership. Pakistan is indeed a meeting point of diverse cultures, enjoys a rich history of defining common grounds, a strong existence as a confident and fast-developing nation-state, and is a champion of harmonious relations between nations in the region and in the world at large. Pakistan also provides a meeting ground for the Islamic World and the Confucian World represented ideally by China and its virtuous ideas of peace, prosperity, and harmony.
Pakistan can ideally become a model of good relations with both U.S. and China. The U.S. has undertaken some major initiatives in promoting the development of research and knowledge in key disciplines in Pakistan. They are focusing on building a knowledge corridor with Pakistan and concentrating on transfer of skills and training in different subjects and areas. USIAD is currently sponsoring Centers of Excellence in Energy, Water, Food and Agriculture. Goals of CPEC and knowledge cooperation with the U.S. are harmonious and chime in with each other so there is s room for mutual collaboration. Pakistan welcomes any initiative aimed at improving the skills sets of its populace and bettering economic conditions of the people of Pakistan.
There has to be a trickle-down effect of all development efforts so that the common man should benefit from such efforts. China and Pakistan still have millions of people living below poverty line and there is potential for explicitly introducing anti-poverty pro-poor dimension to CPEC. It is understandable that CPEC’s completion will lead to improvement of livelihoods but this needs to be foregrounded consciously in policies and plans.
The direct involvement of common man needs to increase in CPEC projects, especially the planned SEZs and industrial parks along the CPEC route to create a sense of grass root’s ownership of the mega project.
The main portfolio of investment under CPEC resides in the energy sector. Energy security and diversification of energy supply features as strategic drivers on the agenda of many nations. Concomitantly, programs are afoot to deploy coal, wind, solar and hydro projects worth thousands of Megawatts in the foreseeable future. However, the bulk of energy imports comprise liquid fuel for power generation, commuting, aviation and marine. Electricity comprises only 17% of the country’s energy demand. Apart from utilizing the petroleum reserves, we need to convert our coal to clean, soot-free diesel, employing coal-to-liquid technology (GTL). GTL could contribute toward increased energy security for energy short, coal rich countries like Pakistan, having a need to energy self-sufficiency. South Africa is a case in point. It meets 28% of liquid fuel requirements from coal with a combined production capacity of 195,000 bbl / day of crude oil equivalent, projected to grow to two million bbl / day by 2025 worldwide.
The US-Pakistan Center for Energy (USPCAS-E) at NUST has embarked upon to investigate GTL technology by setting up a research unit with FFCL funding and overseas collaboration. Indigenous development of catalyst has led to obtaining a narrow cut, clean liquid fuel. The GTL project should be included under CPEC. According to E&E News, at least 16 coal-to-liquid plants with a cumulative production capacity of over 22 million tons are currently underway in China. This is part of China’ diversified efforts to reduce coal-fired power plant emissions.
The downside is that GTL is water intensive. However, the deep live aquifers on top of the Thar coal seam provide an ideal setting for putting up coal-to-liquid plants at the mine mouth. Incidentally, conventional coal-fired power plants are guzzlers of water as well, requiring 4 tons of water for each ton of coal consumed. The Drax coal power station in UK is situated on river Ouse to meet the water requirements. Water availability and conservation are the key issues here. Water-Energy Ecosystem ‘risk reduction’ and sustainability must be considered seriously in pursuing coal-based power in Pakistan.
The need for integrated energy planning cannot be over emphasised in this context. The policy makers must apply a system of economics and environmental accounting including valuation of natural capital. This approach will highlight to policy makers the relationship between the environment and economy, and help ensure that natural capital is used in a sustainable way to support the economy over the long run.
A modern energy supply follows the guiding objective of sustainable development. It combines security of supply, ability to compete and environmental compatibility. Renewable energy is particularly suited to fulfilling these criteria. Apart from wind and solar, the prospects of biomass for power generation should be considered, arguably the 3rd largest renewable energy resource in the country. Biomass is now well documented as a result of biomass resource mapping in Pakistan funded by World Bank in coordination with AEDB under the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). USPCAS-E NUST conducted the field-based survey that culminated in Pakistan’s first Biomass Atlas available at documents.worldbank.org (biomass atlas Pakistan).
Satellite image analysis was used to produce a land use classification for the whole country, paving the way for project developers to identify, evaluate and invest in a Greenfield power project in Pakistan. Potential investors are reaching out to AEDB to avail this opportunity. Similar resource mapping is underway for solar energy through a multiple of Meteorological High Precision Stations deployed across the county, with the courtesy of the World Bank in coordination with AEDB. One such station is operational at NUST, churning accurate real-time data on this important renewable energy resource, which is crucial for government planning and policy-making, and for initial site scoping by commercial developers. It also helps to lower the resource risk in project development, thereby leading to lower electricity prices for the intended power plants.
The author is Principal and Dean, US-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies at NUST, and member of the National Steering Committee on Sustainable Energy for All.
