Last week, Obama administration officials were scrambling to contact Houthi leaders in Yemen and assure them that the US didn’t consider them an enemy. “We’re talking with everybody, everybody who will talk with us,” a US official is quoted as saying by the LA Times. More Yemenis have been killed by drones than by Al Qaeda. Yemen hates the US. Iran hates the US. Iraq doesn’t even have time to hate the US. Libya, Egypt, Syria. The US can’t take an aggressive stand anymore in the region. It just wont work anymore. The risk is that Shiite fundamentalism in Iran, Yemen, Syria and Iraq could become the next terrorist threat. The US would rather that the same become a threat to ISIS or Al Qaeda, rather than the West.
What is new here is that the Houthis fight with Al Qaeda is not just about ideology, but territory. One of the Houthis’ complaints against the Yemeni government was that it wasn’t putting enough force into the battle against Al Qaeda. Last week, Al Qaeda issued a statement accusing the Houthis of being faithful partners of the United States when in fact the opposite is true. But while Republicans like John McCain want more forces on the ground, Obama’s people just seem tired and would like to see these groups annihilate each other. The fallen government had supported the US, and now the US has a vacuum in Yemen. Might as well talk to whoever is in power.
It’s out of anyone’s hands at this point. The nuclear talks with Iran seem to be crumbling and Iran would see itself starve before it gives up its nuclear program. When the talks end, there will be more sanctions; something the Obama administration was trying to avoid so that Iran would calm down, fight ISIS and balance Sunni fundamentalism without it being aggressive towards the US, the Saudis or the Sunni people of Iraq and Syria. But these are just too many ducks to try to put in a row. Whether the US talks, fights or dances, the situation will get stickier. The vortex that is Iraq is going to expand and Afghanistan and Pakistan are next. The top recruiter for the Islamic State group’s affiliate in Afghanistan was killed in an American drone strike on Monday. The Islamic State declared the creation of the Khorasan Shura – a leadership council for Afghanistan and Pakistan composed almost entirely of former TTP leaders. Fighters with the Pakistani Taliban have defected to the Islamic State though the Afghan Taliban have remained loyal to Mullah Omar in most cases. Some may see this as a turf war, but IS wants to be the only sustainable radical Sunni-Salafi domain and there will be more defections. These militants are fickle, but staunch in belief. The more radical and aggressive the leader, the more supporters he will get.