Turkish President Erdogan’s 2025 visit to Pakistan can prove to be major turning point for Pakistan and region. The visit comes at a time when the national political leadership within Islamic world is reorienting its strategic policy planning. Guidance to survive and thrive is the most important element in this geopolitical chessboard as the emerging trends suggest interesting times ahead for MENACASA.    

The return of Trump has coincided with a new framework emerging in MENACASA (Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia, South [and South-East] Asia) region. The withdrawal of Pezeshkian’s Iran from Great Game in the Middle East amidst Saudi Arabia’s increasing neutrality has led to renewed Turkish presence in MENACASA. Turkiye is bent upon pursuing new strategy and policy in MENACASA through its newfound opportunity to present itself as major player as reflected in its emerging soft, hard and hybrid power as Erdogan embarks on a journey to Pakistan, Indonesia and Malaysia. In contrast, a major aspect associated with Trump is disruption of status quo. Though, status quo doesn’t entirely apply to elites. It also applies to practices and philosophies as well as politics (including diplomacy) and economics. An example is assertion of US dominance through some decisions that contradict previously joint Biden Administration – US establishment stance. The Gaza ceasefire and Syrian government change as Trump became President elect depicts reactions (especially, Israel and Iran) to the tactics and pursuits of Trump as US President which reflects the overall mood to establish priorities and preferences. 

Saudi Arabia is focusing on developmental expansion without stretching its posture while Iran has largely withdrawn from great game chessboard as both countries tend to adjust according to new priorities and preferences which has left space for other key actors. Turkiye has emerged as key actor. President Erdogan has made threatening statements to Israel and, he followed by propping up ally in Damascus. Trump’s announcement to relocate Gazans amidst ceasefire and Syrian government change event have immediate and medium to long term implications. Concurrently, USAID as a tool has been hit which suggests that Trump seek other measures such as pressure and coercion by stepping more on the pedal than Biden did all the while reorienting the trajectory of US decision-making forces more in line with Israeli mindset. It still needs to be seen that to what extent Trump will be able to hoodwink global elites and global system pertaining to tactics. One of the major launches sought to re-assert US dominance is StarGate. As Chinese tech giants launch DeepSeek-V3 and AliBaba’s Qwen 2.5 to compete ChatGPT, the Trump-Musk duo seek to intensify their disruption. Trump’s threats to Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Middle East, EU, NATO etc has led to renewed western realignment. 

Main question that emerges is whether the trend of disruption continues and a new alliance emerges that combines the strength, power and will to pursue counter-disruption but with different yet sustainable priorities, pursuits and preferences. As Trump seeks to assert US role in Gaza as form of disruption, the main contention between Israel and Arab neighbours has taken a new dimension. The major response by Arabs and Turks is diversification and intensification, respectively. If this Arab-Turkish trend continues, can a new bloc emerge similar to as Bhutto sought fourth bloc in global politics after Capitalist, Socialist and NAM blocs had sought to gain allies but on their own terms, conditions and interests. Although, such a bloc would need to maintain cordial relations amidst some non-negotiable points such as establishment of Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital as well as blocking any attempts of displacing Palestinians. What options would Middle Eastern countries have in case their weak points and spots are manipulated? 

MENACASA countries (mainly comprised by Islamic countries) need to also focus on strengthening their connections. The need to act strategically and out-of-the box must be met with proper decision-making aligned with accurate understanding to give genuine solutions. The mood to make Human Rights council and ICC irrelevant is an attempt to make opponents toothless as Trump’s US reverts to old school realism while scrapping liberalist options. The timing and course of future actions cannot be more predictable as Elon Musk’s DOGE and Trump’s StarGate suggest unprecedented pursuit to make America Great again which also includes overthrowing old status quo. However, the response from global east and global south along with likeminded should be updated to be adjustable and adaptable to new status quo. 

Geopolitical risk analysis that draws on astrophysicist-astronomic model to align evidence-based reasoning with ever-new phenomenal discoveries possessing game-changing properties would lead to necessary understanding of policymaking and decision-making to evolve and develop eschatological framework to build a path towards securing, stabilising and developing of strength against risks and threats. The imperative is to track trends, patterns and trajectories in political events across MENACASA while unprecedented technological and developmental advancements are made across all walks of life. Can MENACASA build a new alliance with the likeminded to deter any such possible aggressive campaign that can potentially lead to countering any disruptions made to reconfigure the contiguous nature of borders of lands under presence and autonomy of Islamic countries and Muslim rulers? 

Certainty is a key element in geopolitical risk analysis. Disruptions are also being witnessed in terms of overturning status quo. As unprecedented unity of Islamic countries (propped up in 2021-22) was major target of disruption, destruction and devastation (2023-24), the remaining framework that stands test of time for purpose of certainty to lead to security, stability, progress, prosperity and development is eschatological pursuit to detect, deter and prevent threats & risks. Accountability to evolve amidst new emerging trends, patterns and trajectory is the best strategy. This has been varyingly adopted by countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran and Pakistan in recent times. The current threat is the expansion of Israel that thwarts the developmental and progressive expansion of Saudi Arabia and Turkiye. 

One of the most important element is that who enjoys legitimacy, credibility, validity and relevancy as leadership. Erdogan’s Turkiye is mustering its newfound strength that it built over last few decades. It is not essential to agree with every policy, plan, strategy, procedure and program of Turkish pursuit but nevertheless, it must be supported as part of unannounced consensus with global Islamic community. The eschatological traditions from Islamic hadith must be taken into account. There are forces of disruption and envy that chip away the power, strength, unity and will from within the ranks. Israel reacted by wiping Gaza off the map as it witnessed unprecedented unity amongst ranks of Islamic countries after Saudi-Iran rapprochement also led to closure of any mutual hostilities between any Islamic countries. As long as Erdogan’s Turkiye props up unity & strength with ranks of Islamic countries and global Islamic community, it must be supported. 

Lastly, the eschatological traditions sourced from Islamic hadith must be collected and consolidated without stamping any final version upon it. A framework must be developed to overcome disruptions, destruction and devastation. It needs unprecedented diplomacy and contribution from the world of Islam and its likeminded to counter any attempts to waste strength, power and will. No Islamic country should be left outside the camp. However, some disruptions may not be negative but rather, good. Therefore, it is need of the time to unite upon cooperation for progress, prosperity, development, security and stability. Some disruptions may altogether change the trajectory of world events and life on earth either for the bad or good but definitely - forever. Therefore, cooperation, coordination, collaboration for establishing consensus through eschatological framework for evidence-based risk analysis should not be disrupted or discontinued but should be all-inclusive but without negative control or effects. For this reason, eschatological framework must be an unbiased space in face of unhinged criticism nor be susceptible to non-serious inconsistent approach. An eschatological framework for geopolitical risk analysis must be free from capture of such ambitious mindset and selfish interest which would then discredit the attempt to assert MENACASA unity.