With each passing day, Pakistan is experiencing more political instability and chaos. After decades of research, it has been established that a state’s stability and security depend on five fundamentals which include political stability, economic prosperity, a strong military, an established societal order, and the least climate hazards. All five fundamentals for state stability are exposed at the moment in Pakistan. Vulnerability is a result of ongoing geo-political rivalries, own political follies on the domestic front, and manipulation by hostile agencies to bring Pakistan under pressure. Our prevailing political culture is not inclusive. It does not benefit the common man in any way. It looks after a few who are already in the power corridors and know how to pull the strings. National politics draws its strength from an agrarian society that only looks for short-term gains. The same culture climbs up the ladder and is pervasive in national political discourse. Wholesome policies and their implementation is not a priority but individual benefits remain the sole objective in power corridors of federal and provincial capitals. A recent deal with the IMF for a loan of $6 billion has brought economic wrath for the public in terms of an increase in electricity and gas tariffs. Petrol prices, though not linked to the IMF programme yet, have added fuel to public anxiety. The world must realize that Pakistan is not a state which can be exposed to the threat of such natures for an unforeseeable future. Its geo-strategic location, military strength, and public sentiment and support for the Army are its power base.
Let us evaluate, what went wrong on the domestic front and how? What is in excess and what is deficient? Who manipulates these factors, who ignites them, and what should be done? One cannot comprehend all this in a few paragraphs yet a hint will suffice the requirement. Excess military interventions in the past have been the biggest factor in political instability. The political echelon was neither given an open-ended opportunity nor were they mature enough to handle off-season governments handed over to them from time to time. Come and go, push and pull continued for decades which did not let the political institutions mature. The present political turmoil is the result of political excess and misunderstanding of a political party that was brought in by forces that be.
In the governing process, the Chief Executive miscalculated power equilibrium and tried to ouster the biggest political opponents from the political corridors without analyzing the effects. It is a complete lack of judgement and miscalculation of political power structure on part of the party in power. In political strategy, total elimination is never suggested. Dialogue is the way to resolve the issue and develop consensus. We need to evaluate democratic norms according to our environment. IK wanted to completely tilt this balance in his favour without realising the political cost the country had to pay. The desire of IK ignited political unrest, as was expected, and opposition parties took the route of agitation. From 2018 till April 2022, the opposition did not let the PTI government move forward smoothly. Political opponents joined hands. IK wanted the establishment to strengthen him to crush his political opponents. Such a big upheaval was neither manageable nor acceptable to anyone. It brought every political body and institution under pressure. It was a quagmire of political witch-hunting, governance mismanagement, and absence of consensus within political parties and among political stakeholders which led to chaos in society. The economic failure of the PTI government was the result of this political expediency.
In a chaotic society, capital flight is the first casualty and next is the information vacuum and information mismanagement. The establishment is a victim of the same quagmire. Political forces have the liberty to play their games, spread rumours and ignite masses. Due to revolutionary changes in information technology, propaganda has become an easy game. The digital age and the rise of social media have accelerated changes to our social systems, with poorly understood functional consequences. This gap in our knowledge represents a challenge to progress, democracy, and actions to address global crises. The multiscale interactions and feedback that underlie collective behaviour are hallmarks of “complex systems”—which include our brains, power grids, financial markets, and the natural world. When perturbed, complex systems tend to exhibit finite resilience followed by catastrophic, sudden, and often irreversible changes in functionality. Adversaries just require an atmosphere of mistrust within a society, the rest they can do themselves. We provided an opportunity that was exploited by hostile agencies and here we are.
We are politically unstable and economically vulnerable. Society is badly polarised and the military is the target of propaganda. How vulnerable we are due to global climate changes, as we have just witnessed in the 2022 floods. Our information domain is extremely vulnerable to propaganda by all internal and external forces. The only way out is to overcome political unrest. Political consensus on holding, humanly possible, fair, and free elections and then accepting the results. It should be the beginning of the future. If political stability is achieved the rest is just management. The Pakistani nation is resilient, hardworking, and highly talented. The whole nation keeps its country and armed forces in the highest esteem. Information regime is compatible with the existing political environment, more political stability, and more peaceful journalism. Will it happen? Fingers are crossed for a peaceful and prosperous Pakistan.