Hardly had the memory of coordinated terrorist attacks across Balochistan vanished when a terrorist attack rocked Quetta. Reportedly, it was an act of suicide bombing which consumed lives of more than two dozen security personnel on a platform of the Quetta Railway Station in the morning of November 9. The personnel were about to get on a Peshawar-bound train, the Jaffar Express.
Though the explosion also engulfed the lives of civilian passengers besides injuring several of them, the attack was directed in nature. The target was ill-fated security personnel, who had bought tickets a couple of days ago to board the train. By buying tickets in advance, they heralded the time and date of their departure from Quetta. This mistake enhanced their vulnerability and cost them their lives. Moreover, the personnel seemed to be unaware of a series of coordinated attacks that had disrupted railways and highways across Balochistan on the night between August 25 and 26. Several security personnel succumbed to those attacks on their way to their destinations inside Balochistan.
It is now obvious that terrorists know the point of maximum vulnerability of the security personnel: when they are off from duty and when they are travelling. In such a state of affairs, guards are down. The security personnel were a soft target. As happened in this case, a suicide bomber found an open chance to approach them without any hindrance and deterrence. The Majeed Brigade of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack.
Currently, there is an outbreak of terrorism ravaging Balochistan. Surprisingly, terrorists have been roaming freely and selecting their targets unimpeded. Every other day, news of a terrorist attack devouring the lives of innocent civilians surface from Balochistan, making the province a conflict zone controlled by terrorists.
The spate of terrorist attacks indicates that Balochistan is in a grip of low-intensity insurgency, which is challenging the writ of the state. It also seems that the security forces deployed there have been trying to avoid a direct confrontation with the terrorists of the BLA, despite the fact that the security forces are now equipped with drones and related war accessories. No doubt, Balochistan spans a huge swath of land, and the security forces seem to be disinclined to take the help of advanced technology, be it in the field of telecommunication or in the realm of aerial surveillance. News of drone strikes come from the northwest where the Tehreke Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is showing presence, but not from the southwest where the BLA hideouts exist. Pakistan is perhaps overlooking the fact that each such terrorist attack raises the concerns of China about its investment in Pakistan. Taken together, both the northwest and southwest are radiating signals of inhospitality to China in their respective areas of influence. On the other hand, Pakistan’s security forces are faced with the challenge of protecting the lives of Chinese engineers. At the same time, the security forces are failing to protect Pakistan’s own security personnel and citizens from the clutches of terrorism, being unleashed by terrorist groups, be it the TTP or the BLA. Pakistan is a common enemy of both. Any damage to the interests of Pakistan is a gain for them. The grave situation is also repulsive of foreign investment of any sort in both provinces, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, especially and in the country generally. It is not known if Pakistan is waiting for what.
The situation in Balochistan indicates that local intelligence has failed to yield fruit. There is a present disconnect between the security forces and the masses. The human factor in intelligence seems to be missing. Perhaps, there is more antagonistic elements on the ground ready to supply information to terrorist organisations such as the BLA. Without such a tendency, a vast network of the BLA cannot work. The same also means that the incumbent provincial government has lost touch with the masses, otherwise in a province like Balochistan where the population is sparse, it is not possible for terrorists to promote coordinated attacks. In August, when the BLA launched coordinated attacks at night, the security forces responded belatedly. They did not come out immediately to fight the offensive. This factor alone must be encouraging for terrorists to think of attacking again, as happened this time.
In the face of the frequency and intensity of attacks, Pakistan has to take necessary measures. Immediate could be to launch a counter-terrorism derive to flush out terrorists from their hideouts to break their backs, besides disrupting their capacity to coordinate, besides raising the level of alertness of the security personnel. The long-term measure could be the political engagement of local Baloch politicians and human rights group who could be involved in a dialogue. The objective could be to sort out a peaceful solution for the lingering disagreement on the utility of land and resources of Balochistan. The role of foreign elements cannot be ruled out. Pakistan has to rule out any link between terrorism and Indian spies fishing supposedly in the troubled waters of Pakistan. The help of Iran can be sought to initiate a decisive attack on the dens of the BLA in the border area of Iran. It is not known yet what the utility of the Operation Azme Istehkam is for which Rs 20 billion has been approved by the federal cabinet. In conflict-prone zones such as the north-west and south-west, there is a need of developing a rapid response force, which can be called out to neutralize a terror threat immediately.
A point of concern is that the way the BLA is advancing in its offensive against the security forces, especially when they are off-guard, more such offences can occur. Moreover, success in launching attacks in the recent past might be encouraging for the BLA to introduce a spike in its anti-state efforts, which would have a demoralizing influence on the security personnel. Before such a tipping point reaches, Pakistan has to act – act fast and vehemently.
Dr. Tehmina Aslam Ranjha
The writer is an analyst on National Security and Counter-Terrorism. She tweets @TA_Ranjha and can be reached at taranjha1@gmail.com
