What is in for Russia in Syria?

While an international and regional noose is fast tightening around the neck of the Syrian president, Bashar Assad, it seems that Russia is still hoping that the Damascus regime will survive the uprising. The Russians have so far showed support for the regime in the face of mounting international pressure. Just a few weeks ago, and in an exercise of naval muscle-flexing, the Russians announced that warships were to be sent to the anchorage and naval base of Tartus in Syria. Although Russia is critical of the Wests approach to Syria, this demonstrative gestures will not force different players to reconsider their stand on the matter. Not surprisingly, the Russian stand is not popular in this part of the world. Arabs, for instance, are disappointed that Russia has been backing regimes that do not hesitate to repress and murder their people. Many make the case that the Russian government does not respect the will of the Arab people and is more interested in reaching a deal with the West. Differently put, the Russian stand can be understood within the context of using Syria as a bargaining chip. As matters have come to a boiling point in Syria due to the emergence of a free Syria army and the unwillingness or the incapability of Assad to accommodate the demands of his people for democracy, the Russian fears of Western intervention in Syria are genuine. Any military intervention in Syria will have the potentials to open a Pandoras box. No one can be sure of the outcome of such a development or the ramifications on Syria even if Assad falls. Perhaps, one of the nightmare scenarios for all including Russia is a civil war in case the Syrian regime falls. Russia is on alert Instability in the region can harm Russian investments as well. Additionally, Nato interference can undermine the interests of both Russia and China. Apparently, Russia does not want to see further bases for the Nato in this region, as it feels besieged. In fact, Russia feels that the West is taking advantage of any conflict in the region to tighten its grip and to be in a position to influence the world politics. Needless to say, the missile defence shield and Nato intervention in pervious Soviet countries cannot be more striking. And yet, the Russian interests in Syria go well beyond strategic matters. There are economic interests that might be threatened in case the regime falls. At present, the economic ties between Moscow and Damascus are robust. Russia is interested in more investment, especially in oil and gas industry and the Syrian regime has been welcoming Russian investment as it helps improve the Syrian economy. That said, Russia has yet to come up with a clear position regarding the need of Syrians to enjoy freedom and democracy. There have been many anti-Russia demonstrations in Syria and one wonders how this can help Russian interests in the future. The Syrian people view Russia with suspicion and if this trend continues unchecked, then the environment will be antagonistic to Russia. Now with the new elections in Russia and the modest victory of Vladimir Putin and his party, things may slightly change. In other words, Russia cannot afford to be seen as supporting a dictator who is losing ground. This might take some time but again Moscows bet on the wrong horse will be not without costs, especially when Russia is in no position to interfere to save a failing regime. Arab News

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