Following several rounds of unannounced parleys, KSA and Iran, under the Chinese umbrella, have announced to resume diplomatic relations ‘within two months’ to primarily implement security and economic cooperation deals signed more than two-decades ago. We knew something was brewing in China, Iraq, and Oman regarding Tehran and Riyadh. But no one was expecting such an encouraging and positive outcome. Whether or not this détente goes beyond issuing a tri-lateral statement, only time will tell. However, the development has opened several avenues of fresh cooperation, particularly in the Middle Eastern region. Just to recall, both countries had severed diplomatic ties in 2016 following a series of rival flashpoints including the Saudi execution of revered Iranian cleric al-Nimr.
Calling it a ‘diplomatic breakthrough’, Pakistan has warmly welcomed the development while commending China’s role in coordinating the historic agreement. However, the later part of the official statement created a kind of doubt as to China’s ‘conclusive’ role in brokering the deal. It seemed as if Pakistan had also played some kind of ‘a constructive role’ in it. The statement claimed that Pakistan had a ‘history of consistently supporting and coordinating efforts for bridging gaps between the two brotherly countries.’ As Pakistani FM was not seen in the picture with FM Wang Yi nor did the trilateral statement issued by China, Iran and KSA mention Pakistan in any form or manner, the latent ‘nuance’ in Islamabad’s ‘constructive role’ could at best be construed as wishful thinking. This ‘cut and paste’ portion of the statement could have been avoided.
To say that China has emerged as a peacemaker would be a factually correct statement. But to term this development as some kind of diplomatic defeat for the US might not be true. Washington had been desiring to limit US involvement in the Middle East particularly under Obama, Trump, and Biden. That, by default, would provide China and Russia some space to fill especially in the realm of security to GCC countries against internal and external threats. Washington could not continue the policy as certain events like the 11-day war in Gaza in 2021, the assassination of Iraq’s PM and attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq drew the US back into the Middle East. Washington’s wavered approach on Iran’s nuclear deal (JCPOA) coupled with the imposition of crippling sanctions imposed on Iran by Trump and subsequently, Biden’s inability to revive JCPOA and consistent failure of Vienna talks, might have compelled Iran to look towards Russia and China.
Secondly, perhaps, the realization that regional issues needed to be addressed regionally, had struck both Iran and KSA to let China take the lead. Hurried withdrawal of NATO and US forces from Afghanistan, leaving the GCC countries wondering about their own security and the ever-menacing war in Yemen and Houthis’ unwavering resolve, might also have played a role in bringing Tehran and Riyadh to the negotiating table. Yemen would hurt both Iran and KSA albeit for different reasons. In any case, the losses needed to be curtailed if not outrightly avoided.
Clearly, China has taken the lead in bringing some political sanity in the Middle East. Its good-offices and effective mediation, resulting in the resumption of diplomatic relations between KSA and Iran, are being lauded by all and sundry. Finally, some hopes are rekindled for the much-needed peace in the Middle East and the adjoining regions. Clearly, Iran and KSA are the two key actors when it came to discussing oil diplomacy, regional security, overall economic and political developments including the race between big powers for greater influence in this energy-rich and strategically crucial region. And China has provided the requisite face-saving space to two decades-old rivals to sit across the table and discuss ways and means to manage their interests and relations.
Regardless of the absence of tangible benefits of this ostensible détente, certain deductions could be made in the overall regional as well as global geo-political and geo-economic perspectives:
That mediation is possible and could still succeed provided the concerned parties have total trust in the mediating power. Secondly, the regional approach as against the UN platform could work better in addressing regional issues. Thirdly, that Xi Jinping’s visit to the Middle East provided greater diplomatic assurances and space to KSA, Iran and other GCC countries whereas Joe Biden’s visit to the region was taken more in the spirit of the US’ pro-Israel policies than in the overall conflict resolution perspective. Biden in fact reinforced security concerns for the Monarchies, particularly in the backdrop of the Arab Spring and the US-withdrawal from Afghanistan. Hence, the US’ diminishing influence in the region could be seen alongside China’s emerging influence. Fourthly, that both Tehran and Riyadh have conveyed an unequivocal message to the US-led West: China is a more reliable partner especially when it comes to economics, security, and regional peace.
But wait a minute...!! Let us not get carried away. Let us not indulge in inconsequential debates like how Joe Biden’s policies have failed, and XI Jinping’s diplomacy has won the ultimate battle. Nothing has changed yet. The US remains the sole superpower of the world and all issues facing the Middle East such as the Israel-Palestine dispute, Iran-Israel issues, the war in Yemen and the conflict in Syria are still there. The US is still relevant to all disputes facing the Middle East. Let us not start dreaming about eliminating the several sectarian divides and perspectives merely through shaking each other’s hands. KSA and Iran have just expressed intentions to open embassies in each other’s capitals. Nothing substantial has happened that could be construed as a watershed development. It is, at best, a good beginning but that’s all. Just a beginning …. and …. knowing the history of the two Muslim nations and the involved sensibilities and sensitivities, one would not be surprised if tomorrow one odd event or any statement emanating either from Tehran or Riyadh or Washington could bring the situation back to square one…!!