“Worsening Climate Impact will put inflation on steroids unless every country can take bolder climate actions,” UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, addressed world leaders at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan.

As COP29 kicks off on November 11, the developing nations are well prepared to present compelling cases for substantial funding. Some countries may take the opportunity to submit their National Determined Contributions (NDC) targets, though the official deadline for updates remains February 2025. However, Pakistan’s NDC commitments, particularly its proposed greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions and adaptation strategies, remain somewhat vague. Despite claims from the ministry that commitments have been met, ground realities like escalating deforestation, shrinking agricultural land for housing developments, and worsening toxic smog levels in cities such as Lahore tell a different story.

The Conference of the Parties (COP) serves as the primary decision-making body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), bringing together 197 nations worldwide. Established in Berlin Germany in 1995, the COP headquarters is now in Bonn. Its main objective is to unite all signatory nations to negotiate on Climate Change mitigation, reduce GHG emissions, and address global warming and vice versa.

The first Major milestone was the Kyoto Protocol, signed in Japan in 1997, where developed countries pledged to cut GHG emissions, a commitment that grew to include 192 countries by 2005. The next key development occurred at COP21 in 2015 with the signing of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100 and to support climate mitigation efforts in developing countries. Since then, the signatory nations submit their NDC report and adaptation plans every five years to the UNFCCC secretariat.

Each year, the COP presidency rotates among Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Europe, with Azerbaijan hosting this year. Pakistan actively participated in COP27, advocating for the establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) as compensation for the 2022 floods.

At COP27 in Dubai, Pakistan secured $77.8 million for the “Recharge Pakistan “project, intended to transform flood management and sustainable water resource strategies across the Indus Basin’s watershed areas. However, many communities along the Indus River basin remain deeply under climate vulnerabilities, struggling with limited access to essential services such as education, clean water, and healthcare.

The Ministry of Climate Change has officially finalized a 35-member delegation for COP29, including the cabinet minister’s daughter, with an estimated cost of around $1 million. According to the World Bank, Pakistan faces a $348 billion funding gap over the next 7 years to recover from the climate related damages. For Pakistan, a grappling nation with economic and political challenges, this summit presents a crucial platform to highlight its climate vulnerabilities and seek vital international support.

At COP29. Pakistan will focus on advancing its National Adaptation Plan, advocating for loss and damage funding, and promoting carbon market policies to attract investors for sustainable development. Despite contributing only 0.9% of global emissions, Pakistan ranks among the five countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts.

The scale of climate disasters in Pakistan is staggering. In Sindh alone, over 140,000 people have been displaced, and 50,000 acres of farmland have been destroyed due to flooding. According to the World Bank, the 2022 floods impacted more than 3.5 million children, disrupting nearly 1 million children’s education nationwide. Around 7.1 million people living in Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and KP are vulnerable to climate change. The rising temperature has accelerated glacier melting, leading to frequent flash floods and Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) events. GB, home to around 7000 glaciers, faces serious risks from rising temperatures. A UNDP report states that over 3,044 glacial lakes have formed, with 33 at high risk of triggering GLOFs.

Communities in these regions are grappling with severe climate-induced challenges, including forced migration, village submersions, and extensive damage to education, health, hydropower, and other infrastructures. In 2010, a massive landslide blocked the Hunza River, resulting in the submersion of the entire Attabad village, destroying 26 houses and displacing over 6000 residents. Flash floods over the past two years have severely impacted more than 40 educational institutions, disrupting access to education for over 10,000 children.

Pakistan’s vulnerable communities have a rightful claim to climate financing. Despite contributing the least to climate change, they suffer the worst. Thousands of lives perished, many communities displaced, and valleys submerged, yet the global contributors have failed to provide adequate assistance, undermining the principles of Climate justice. Articles 7(2) and 9 of the Paris Agreement 2015 deal with protecting people, livelihoods, and ecosystems, as well as ensuring financial assistance for communities and highly affected developing countries.

Countries like Bangladesh with similar challenges have secured $374 million from the Green Climate Fund, nearly three times Pakistan’s funding level. To attract greater investments, Pakistan must refine its adaptation strategies to build investor confidence.

To strengthen Pakistan’s position in future COPs, several key steps are essential to address. First prioritizing climate diplomacy is crucial to tackling growing environmental challenges. Pakistani officials should consider engaging Indian counterparts in discussions to address cross-border issues like smog military activities in glaciated regions.

Second, research by the National Institute of Pakistan Studies indicates that Pakistan’s outdated and poorly designed water infrastructure exacerbated the 2022 flood. A robust policy is needed to redesign and manage the recurring Kacchi Kanals and riverbanks to get out of this mess and prevent future floods.

Third, all the developmental projects in disaster-prone areas, especially in Gilgit Baltistan, must undergo rigorous environmental impact assessments. Without these precautions, these projects remain highly vulnerable, risking both investments and community safety.

Fourth, a transparent system should be established to ensure accountability and equitable distribution of funds to the most vulnerable communities. Numerous underserved areas and thousands of deserving families need urgent humanitarian assistance.

Fifth, with the significant agricultural loss from the 2022 floods, it is essential to implement policies that curb the ongoing conversion of farmland into housing developments. Immediate action is needed to safeguard agricultural land and enhance food security.

Sixth, Gilgit Baltistan has the potential to generate 40,000 MV of electricity from its rivers and streams, yet residents still rely heavily on wood fuel for heating due to frequent power outages. Sufficient funding should be directed toward resolving the region’s energy crisis to help preserve GB’s Forest cover and reduce reliance on wood fuel.

Lastly, vulnerable communities should be actively involved in climate discussions and policymaking to ensure accurate data collection and implement effective strategies.

Ijlal Haider
The writer is an MPhil scholar at the National Institute of Pakistan Studies, QAU Islamabad. He can be reached at ijlalhaider@nips.qau.edu.pk