Prime Minister Imran Khan is scheduled to visit the Beijing Winter Olympic Ceremony on February 3, 2022. The Beijing Olympics is programmed from February 4-13, 2022. However, various European countries—led by the US and United Kingdom—have imposed a diplomatic boycott due to the alleged human rights abuse in China. It is believed that the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, will also be there, and a very important meeting between the trio may upset some countries. This meeting will have all the potential to change the regional geopolitical landscape. Gwadar’s One Road One Initiative (OBOR) is the treasure for which Russia is desperate to be a stockholder of. At this stage, our security agencies look congruent to give the clearance to Russia.
Time has changed to reset orders, alignments, preferences, and economic interests. Afghanistan has, mostly, cleared off all the elements that used to be stepping stones for Russia. Pakistan and Russia are already in liaison with each other on Afghanistan and have developed a basic understanding of a variety of issues. Heads of the governments of both the countries have already had two telephonic conversations. This meeting looks to be paving a path for the visit of Mr. Putin to Pakistan soon.
But this rosy picture cannot be painted unless Pakistan is bailed out financially. In the three years Imran Khan has been the PM, we have had cold relations with China, primarily on CPEC. Khan’s government wanted to revisit some agreements made during the last two regimes of Zardari and Nawaz. The Commerce Advisor to the Prime Minster, Mr. Razzak Daowood, had blasted a statement that the CPEC had been racked for a certain period when Khan assumed office. Later, the he tried to offset the after-affects but the arrow, once shot, does not come back.
Since then, cold relations between these two time-tested friends have severely affected the mega project. The progress on the CPEC projects slowed down. The killing of 10 citizens of China on the Dasu Hydroelectric Power project further added tensions. The Chinese conveyed a strong message to Pakistan that the security of its workers could not be compromised. After the incident, Pakistan tightened the security protocols to address the concerns and compensated the families of victims with a $11.6 million support package.
The economy of Pakistan has grounded during the last three years. Khan’s government is nearing its end with an empty basket; it was its imperative to hit some big shots to remain in the game. The visit to China looks like one of them. Economic mussels kept China quiet without showing any exasperation during this indecisive period. Still, the hand of China is on the upper side. Pakistan could not unnerve China into a bargaining position over some unsettled issues. Prime Minister Imran Khan conveyed to the Chinese counterpart that Pakistan will make all efforts to materialise the benefits associated with CPEC.
The government looks to own the agreements signed with China after the three years’ tug. The PM’s visit is likely to focus on CPEC, the expansion of FTA, investment by Chines companies, relationship with India, and the role of the United States in the region. However, CPEC will remain the core of this visit. By this time, ten CPEC projects have been completed, six are under construction, and five are under consideration. Coming to the focal point of CPEC, Gwadar, the situation is still in grey. Even the 19km Eastern expressway could not be finished to link the seaport to the Coastal Highway near Surbandar. The old airport road of Gwadar is still being used for heavy cargo. The Eastern and Western routes of CPEC are still to be completed. Gwadar International Airport and 300MW Coal-Fired Power Project are also crawling. Existing investors demanded high-level parlays before the visit of Imran Khan. These exasperated investors want the ease of procedural bottlenecks and security issues.
Enthused preparations for this very significant visit are on the way. The Ministry of Commerce is doing a great job of finding out the areas for inviting Chinese investors and removing bottlenecks. They got the trade bodies on board for their inputs as well. Security, the pending payment of IPPs, cooperation in agriculture, industry, trade, digital economy, green activities, logistics, health, the circular trap of existing Chinese investors, digital economy, CPEC, and regional politics are the joint interests of both in Pakistan. At the tenth meeting of the Joint Cooperation Committee’s meeting, the two sides decided on jointly working on the information technology industry, opening up the new venues for cooperation in this sector.
Geo-strategic issues always stand at the core of any discussion with our Chinese friends. The army chief, Qamar Javed Bajwa, also called on the Prime Minister for a briefing attended by many senior ministers and officials, including the foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi. Meanwhile, he also separately met Prime Minister Khan. Watchers say it was the first publicly shared meeting between the two, after October 26, 2021, on the issue of the appointment of DG ISI.
This could be a landmark visit to remove the deadlocks at a very critical time, especially for Imran Khan’s government that desperately needs some economic oxygen. If the stalemate persists, the gulf between these two old and gold friends will widen. On the other side, we must be ready to face covert reactions from Pakistan’s anti-forces.