The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East has once again resurfaced in the global political arena as a driver of competing interests between the big powers.

Trump’s disengagement poli­cy in relation to Iran helped the latter to engage with the for­mer’s competitors. The relative decline of the United States’ in­fluence in the region has offered China to engage with regional actors through enhanced dip­lomatic means. In a bid to win over the strategic interests of the United States in the Middle East, China’s diplomatic efforts have brought together Iran and KSA on the table for the first time in recent history. Histori­cally, the struggle for regional influence and the role of a fore­runner for Islamic World fuels the rivalry between Iran and KSA under the ambit of Shia-Sunni schism.

Prior to these developments, the security landscape of the Middle East was architected by the United States’s unchal­lenging hegemonic role that managed relative influence, competing interests, and clash­ing ideologies from inside and outside. However, in the twenty first century the region viewed assertive regional policies to bolster their influence that of­ten outmaneuvered the United States’ leverage. In this context China has increased its diplo­matic presence in the region and positioned itself as a viable alternative for the regional ac­tors. Unlike the United States whose architectured regional order rifted by contradictions and divisions, China’s diplomat­ic endeavors seek to integrate the region into a broader mech­anism of shared governance and stability for global energy sup­ply and trade relations.

China’s introduction in the geopolitical equation of the Mid­dle East has allowed it to broker a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Reconciliation without the involvement of the US signi­fies the break from the past and doubts among its allies about its security guarantees that the US had offered. The diplomatic re-engagement between two re­gional competitors announced in Beijing on Friday reflects China’s diplomatic vision of a shared future and peaceful rise in the international system.

This diplomatic achievement can be traced back to a senior Chinese diplomat’s vision of Chi­na’s regional role in the Middle East. Chinese diplomatic efforts thrive under confidentiality. The secrecy of meetings and negoti­ation in Beijing provided neces­sary conditions and also avoid­ed external responses that could have derailed the peace broker­ing process. This unprecedented diplomatic achievement can be interpreted as China’s growing role and establishment of its le­gitimacy as a heavyweight diplo­matic mediator which is able to pull together geostrategic antag­onistic states. It also forecasts China as a credible peacemaker with diplomatic scope to cover conflict in Yemen, Libya and Syria among the others. This reengagement offers Chinese leadership a strategic option to de-escalate the conflicting situ­ations which are necessary for the stability of global energy supply and realization of its Belt and Road investments.

Equally important factor is that China’s neutrality in the region’s conflicts has endowed it with the capacity to talk to all sides without ideologically lec­turing them. China’s diplomatic principles of non-interference and non-alignment policy has attached credibility to its po­sition in brokering peace be­tween Riyadh and Tehran. This reproachment indicates China’s growing influence as an extra-regional actor in the gulf. Unlike the United States, China’s dip­lomatic strategy is simple and straightforward. It seeks stabi­lization of global energy supply and secure supply for its energy requirements while offering open catalogs to regional actors to choose whatever military equipment and economic coop­eration they need.

Therefore, China’s continued formal diplomatic engagement and economic ties with Tehran provided necessary confidence. Beijing assisted Tehran in its economic insecurity and inter­national diplomatic support that helped Tehran to counter the isolation imposed by the United States. Similarly, Saudi’s pivot to China is indicated by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s back-to-back summits to Ri­yadh and Gulf leadership. This marathon of summits was char­acterized by the agreements on energy, technology, aerospace and automotive industry trade investments and various other areas, thus, ratifying increasing close economic and security re­lations between the two states. Likewise, this agreement offers Iran with much required legiti­macy to open itself to the Arab world and pave a workable solu­tion for the conflicts in regional flash points such as Yemen and Lebanon. For Riyadh, the calm­ness of the regional tensions al­lows Muhammad bin Salman’s 2030 vision and Chinese assur­ance will prevent Tehran’s fur­ther aggression.

Furthermore, China’s global governance is concept based upon the notions of shared hu­man destiny and international partnership characterized by win-win outcome, principle of mutual consultation and de­velopment. The initiatives of Belt and Road and Asian In­frastructure Investment Bank focuses on the infrastructural development, interconnectivity and economic security through China-Pakistan Economic Cor­ridor and String of Pearls strat­egy. This also informs Chinese global diplomacy manifested in its strategic partnership with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt Al­geria, Turkey, and UAE. In this framework China is fostering economic development and in­dustrialization rather than fo­cusing on the regional rivalries to gain geo-political advantages. Consequently, the substance of China’s diplomatic policy is en­gagement and pragmatic. This approach has increased China’s diplomatic appeal and soft pow­er in the context of the Belt and Road initiative.

Pakistan has also been desir­ing to normalize bilateral rela­tions between Saudi Arabia and Tehran; this welcoming devel­opment fits well with Pakistan’s strategic vision for the Middle East and its own foreign policy. It will allow Pakistan the neces­sary strategic space for maneu­vering without antagonizing either of the Middle Eastern giants. Likewise, being an es­sential part of the BRI, Pakistan can significantly place its inter­ests in the global governance model of China that emphasizes regional stability and economic development, two factors that Pakistan needs more than ever. Pakistan’s historical and bilat­eral ties with these three actors China, Iran and Saudi Arabia of­fer her to benefit from this dip­lomatic achievement.

In conclusion, China’s grow­ing role in the Middle East sig­nifies post-American order and a new era of Asian engagement designed primarily by economic security and shared governance model for the development. The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is experiencing new strategic flux, redefined struc­tural logic and rearranging itself on the new organizing principle. The geopolitical equation in the Middle East is altered by a sig­nificant number of larger struc­tural shifts regarding the weight and relative position of specific regional and extra-regional ac­tors. The new equation appears to be directed by the game-changing role of China and rela­tive loss for the United States, and increased autonomous agentic deliberation of regional actors in shaping the regional developments

ENGR QAISER NAWAB

Engr Qaiser Nawab, a highly esteemed international expert on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. With a passion for global peace and climate activism, Qaiser is also recognized as a prominent Pakistani youth leader, United Nations SDGs advocate, and freelance journalist. With a wealth of knowledge and experience in his field, Qaiser can be reached at qaisernawab098@gmail.com for any inquiries or collaborations.