There is a whirlwind of fast changing events. Siege of hapless Kashmiris in IOK continues. US Afghan Taliban talks stalled, for now. Chinese Foreign Minister and Dy Chairman of Chinese Military Commission visited Pakistan. The duo Foreign Ministers of Saudia and UAE paid a quick visit. CENTCOM Commander was also around. Once again we were fighting our case at FATF to prove ourselves not guilty, and trying to wriggle out of Grey List. President Trump offering help resolving Kashmir issue the umpteenth time, now. China has announced a mammoth investment in Iran, interestingly to be protected by five thousand strong Chinese Force. All in a short span of one to two weeks. Is it normal ? Are these events interlinked? It was definitely an abnormal fortnight and surely all this is closely interlinked. Let us remain optimistic, even if not visible to everyone, about the professionalism and activities of own Foreign Office and Military Leadership.

They definitely have a lot more knowledge, information, intelligence and wherewithal to discern and evaluate the unfolding scenario along with our preparations and abilities to deploy matching responses.

But the moment we look around what else is happening within the country, on accounts of various aspects of governance, especially in the fields of municipal functions and general Law and Order, one suspects the Government’s ability to handle higher responsibilities related to geopolitics, geo-economics and geo Strategy. Even if a part of these responsibilities is outsourced to any other institution (that is quite probable), ultimately the apex political entity and forum, the PM and the Cabinet remain responsible for the positive outcome of the entire diplomatic, politico, economic and military efforts.

 In the public diplomacy we haven’t done bad, as through the TV, social media, print media etc., the public at large, world over have become quite aware on the situation in IOK. A strong and large scale procession in support of Kashmiris is also a heartening sign. However our deliberation a UN and with other Nation States has not shown results like lifting of curfew, dispatch of international fact finding missions , and providing humanitarian aid by international entities like Red Cross, Amnesty International and the likes. This only reveals the limitations of diplomacy as it can only operate within the boundaries of prevailing political and economic international framework. Our only skill being where and how do we locate ourselves to reap maximum benefits. And that definitely seems to be our biggest failure. Looking helplessly (even after being abused and misused) towards US and its Allies even at the risk of annoying reliable partners like China and not warming up with countries like Russia and Iran is a confusing attitude. We need to rule out the presence of moles within Foreign Office that are not allowing an Eastward turn or are ensuring it to remain very sluggish.

 Let us crystal gaze at the coming weeks, months, and try to interpret the purpose of various concurrent events occurring with lightning speed. Some opportunities are definitely propping up, and it is up to us how we manage ourselves and our reactions. First and foremost, affecting the region the most is the Indian clampdown and total blackout in the occupied Kashmir. What would have happened in the last six weeks is not difficult to understand. Reports of widespread apprehensions, martyrdoms, rape and arson etc. are already out. A focused, deliberate and ruthless effort to decapitate the young leadership of Kashmiri Freedom Movement, and demoralize their families is too obvious an objective. And this, in our opinion, is only Phase One of the entire Plan. Second Phase would be large scale capital influx through Saudia, UAE and other US partners to dazzle the already frightened populace of the area. It will also be accompanied by enticing Azad Kashmiris to join the bonanza and we might find some instigated disturbances on this side of the LoC. The Phase Three would naturally be intimidation or attempted subjugation of Pakistan , as without that neither Kashmir can be assimilated nor the Indian Muslims be controlled. The timeframe for that politico military action could be within six months after acquisition of S 400 ABM system and Rafael Fighter aircrafts.

 Americans seem to have altered their plans in Afghanistan, after looking at the Indian initiative in Kashmir. Indians quite cunningly may have asked US to delay their evacuation from Afghanistan, initially to ensure tying down of Pakistan Army on that front and later to allow US to shift one odd base to Kashmir to keep their vantage position in the region. It must have been music to Americans; nd hence all these hectic visits.  China is not fully grasping the situation, Pakistan being the most affected country, probably has not yet sensed the impending danger, and thus has not sensitized other stakeholders. It is only for Pakistan along with China and Russia that need to evaluate and validate the above Hypothesis with the help of intense intelligence operations.

And now the big question, what should Pakistan do? Operating only in the domain of diplomacy has already got us where we are, nothing more be expected. The world has become aware of Indian atrocities and they have expressed their ‘concern’, and suggested ‘restrain’ to both Pakistan and India, not realizing that Indians have shown no restraint. So obviously this lesson of civilized approach is only for us. There is a vast range of activities between the spectrum of Diplomacy and Military Actions in the political and legal frameworks where we have not moved an inch. Any act to prevent aggression, squarely lies in the DEFENSIVE domain; also the theory of PRE EMPTION is valid and practiced a number of times by those who DARE. A smaller country when surrounded by looming dangers got to act and act fast and with ferocity and bravery. Morale of the Kashmiris and Pakistanis must be maintained.

 Americans be requested that no more free services in Afghanistan. The peace over there would come with the help of China, Russia, Iran, CARs, Pakistan and the Afghans themselves, no one else. The other group is bunch of detractors. The earlier understood the better. The US logistics to Afghanistan through Pakistan must be renegotiated forthwith, as Americans have not helped us in pressurizing Indians to cease their atrocities in Kashmir. Our BROTHERS in Middle East be treated at par.

A Nation is only as brave as its leadership