Pipelines are not merely conduits for natural gas; they are lifelines of energy security, economic interdependence, and geopolitical leverage. As global demand for natural gas grows, countries are scrambling to secure reliable sources of energy. Major infrastructure projects like the Trans-Siberian pipeline to China, the TAPI pipeline through Central Asia, or the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline to Europe underline the growing complexity of energy geopolitics. Each of these cases reflects the shifting dynamics of supply, demand, and political manoeuvring, shaping the future of global energy markets.

Russia’s Power of Siberia pipeline, capable of supplying 38 billion cubic metres (BCM) of natural gas annually, is a cornerstone of its pivot to Asia. After years of strained relations with Europe in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian war, Moscow has redirected its focus towards China, the world’s largest energy consumer. The pipeline not only diversifies Russia’s export portfolio but also strengthens its strategic partnership with Beijing.

China, facing rising energy demands amid an ongoing economic transformation, benefits from this stable and relatively cost-effective supply. In 2023, Chinese natural gas consumption reached 394.5 BCM, according to the China Natural Gas Development Report (2024), with imports meeting 42% of demand. The Power of Siberia pipeline aligns with China’s strategy to shift from coal to cleaner energy sources, reducing emissions while securing energy reliability.

However, this deepened Russo-Chinese energy partnership raises concerns in Europe and the United States. A strengthened Russia-China axis could consolidate geopolitical power, challenging Western dominance in global energy markets.

The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline, with an anticipated annual capacity of 33 BCM, exemplifies South and Central Asia’s shared ambitions for regional integration. Turkmenistan holds the world’s sixth-largest natural gas reserves, yet its landlocked geography has constrained export diversification. The TAPI pipeline offers a new lifeline, connecting Turkmenistan’s abundant gas fields to energy-hungry markets in South Asia.

For Pakistan and India, TAPI could be a game-changer. Pakistan, grappling with a widening energy deficit, faces skyrocketing demand, particularly during winter months when residential heating peaks. For India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer, TAPI offers an alternative to expensive LNG imports.

However, the pipeline’s path through Afghanistan—a country marked by decades of conflict and instability—raises significant security and financial challenges. Despite recent progress due to the Taliban regime’s assurances, international investors remain wary of the risks. The realisation of TAPI’s potential depends on sustained political stability and regional cooperation, variables that have, unfortunately, been elusive.

The Nord Stream pipelines, connecting Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea, were designed to deliver over 110 BCM of natural gas annually. These pipelines epitomised Europe’s dependency on Russian gas, supplying nearly 40% of its pre-2022 energy needs. They were also a manoeuvre by Russia to bypass Ukraine and establish an alternative route to European markets. Their sabotage in 2022 and abrupt decommissioning forced Europe to accelerate its diversification strategy.

The attack—though no party has been conclusively identified—highlighted the vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure in a geopolitical contest. Europe responded by diversifying its gas sources, increasing LNG imports from the US and Qatar, and accelerating renewable energy investments. However, LNG is expensive compared to pipeline gas, and renewable energy development is a long-term solution, leaving Europe in a precarious situation.

These three pipeline stories reveal broader geopolitical trends. First, they highlight the fragmentation of energy markets into regional spheres of influence. Russia is reorienting its energy exports towards Asia, Europe is looking to the Americas and Africa, and South Asia is building regional connectivity.

Second, pipelines are increasingly being weaponised in geopolitical conflicts. Whether through sabotage, sanctions, or supply restrictions, energy infrastructure is no longer just an economic tool but a strategic lever.

Finally, these projects emphasise the urgent need for nations to adopt more resilient and diversified energy strategies. Dependence on single suppliers or routes exposes economies to vulnerabilities that adversaries can exploit.

The complex energy landscape can be navigated if the imperatives of global cooperation and investment in diverse infrastructure are impressed upon stakeholders. Europe must continue its push towards renewables while securing reliable pipeline and LNG imports from non-Russian sources. South Asia must prioritise security and regional collaboration to realise the TAPI dream. For China, balancing its reliance on Russian gas with other sources will be critical to maintaining energy independence.

The Nord Stream sabotage underscores the need to prioritise infrastructure security, protecting pipelines from physical and cyber threats. Investments in alternative energy sources, such as hydrogen and biogas, will further enhance resilience.

In conclusion, pipelines like the Power of Siberia, TAPI, and Nord Stream are more than energy projects; they are instruments of power and diplomacy. As global energy demand rises, these “pipe dreams” will shape not only markets but also geopolitics. Nations must tread carefully, leveraging infrastructure for cooperation rather than conflict, to ensure a stable and sustainable energy future.

Hussam Mehboob
The writer is an electrical engineer and works in the downstream natural gas sector.