It has become a national discourse led by the elites, talking heads, and pundits that the world is somehow against Paki­stan and constantly conspiring for its breakup. It is claimed that India, the USA, western powers, Israel, and even IMF and other lending agencies are diligently working to under­mine and dismantle Pakistan. It is befuddling to hear these claims and the question arises: Who gains from a destabilized nuclear-powered Pakistan? What is the benefit and to whom? Is it even possible to orches­trate a breakup of Pakistan and how? And, are these claims only to hide our self-induced failures of leader­ship and find external forces to blame?

Undeniably, Pakistan is not a small, banana republic with a tiny population that can be easily twisted and turned. It is the 5th largest country in the world with 245 million people; it has a seasoned army and is a nuclear power to boot. Given these, how do you breakup up a country with the expanse and depth of Pakistan? Quite frankly, it is simply not possible in the current day and age! If anyone had any misconceptions about this and if Pakistan were to take a downward spiral, the whirlpool created by a sinking Pakistan would impact not just the region but the world. And no one in the world, including India, would be able to deal with the resulting tsunami.

Be that as it may, and for the sake of argument, let us look a bit closely at a breakup scenario. Assuming Pakistan sits idly by and lets it occur, what happens to the western provinces? Would the breakup take place by ignoring the current border along the Durand line and allowing the provinces west of the Indus to join Afghanistan? Seriously? The world, and the superpowers (Rus­sia, USA, British Empire, etc) have never been able to manage Af­ghanistan with a small population of 40 million and limited re­sources. Afghanistan has been and continues to be a thorn in their side and a pariah in the world community, for right or wrong rea­sons depending on who is judging. How will the world deal with a new Afghanistan (inclusive of KPK and Baluchistan) which will be double in land mass and almost triple in population? Plus, this new Afghanistan would have control over immense mineral and strategic resources since Baluchistan and KPK are both ripe with mineral and natural resources; their terrains include the strate­gic passes that link South Asia to Central Asia; and Baluchistan possesses key sea ports. Lest we forget, there is another super­power, China, which has made large investments in KPK and Bal­uchistan under the CPEC. Would it sit idly by and allow its invest­ment and realization of a century-old goal of a land route to the Indian Ocean to go to naught? It is a fool’s dream to think that all the myriad players of the world who have also been engaged in this region for decades would accept or allow such a breakup of Pakistan and the rise of an unmanageable Afghanistan.

Now let us consider our eastern provinces of Punjab and Sindh in a breakup scenario. One can imagine that they can be­come their own independent countries. After all, if Punjab were a country, its population of 127 million would make it the 11th largest country in the world, ahead of Japan, Germany, and the UK. However, it would be a landlocked country, which has its own constraints. Furthermore, such a separation would reignite pres­sure in Indian Punjab for its own independence, and India would be loath to want that. And supposedly Sindh can be its own coun­try. It has a population of 57 million currently and it is the eco­nomic powerhouse of Pakistan with Karachi as its economic hub and plenty of agriculture and other mineral resources within the province. However, inner Sindh feudals and sardars would be unmanageable for a Karachi-based government, and law and or­der would be the casualty. Additionally, any breakup of Pakistan would make the borders unmanageable and a free flow of peo­ple would initiate through the porous borders to the east. Could India handle hundreds of thousands of Punjabis and Sindhis go­ing back and forth, particularly if even a few hundred of them were radicals and fanatics? Arguably, not! It is a certainty that In­dia would like Pakistan to stay united, stable, and organized. Not just India, but all the powers of the world simply cannot afford to have a nuclear-powered nation of 245 million be destabilized through economic, political, or military failure. It is in no one’s in­terest and Pakistan is simply too big to fail.

Our nation needs to understand this reality, stop finding ex­traneous factors for our woes, stop making excuses and wast­ing time on conspiracy theories, pick ourselves up by the boot­straps, and get to work. We are capable of achieving anything through hard work and discipline. We continue to succeed all over the world, but we succeed as individuals. We just don’t do it as a nation. And that is something that the leaders of Pakistan have to ponder. How can we create an atmosphere in Pakistan for Pakistanis to shine within Pakistan, as they do abroad? It is easy enough to gauge which of the political parties (PML-N, PPP, PTI, APP, IPP, JUI, etc) has a leadership that is forward-looking, solution-oriented, and can create this atmosphere.

Imran Shauket
The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government and a sector development specialist. He is also a farmer and food processing practitioner.