From 15 to 16 October, Pakistan will host the heads of government meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). In this meeting, the Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam. Jaishankar will be representing India. This would be first such visit by an Indian foreign minister to Pakistan in a decade. New Delhi’s decision to attend the SCO meeting in Islamabad was motivated by their standing and commitment with SCO. This decision should be seen through the angle that there are already whispers that New Delhi might be having second thoughts about its partaking in SCO. Those who hold this view point to PM Modi’s decision not to attend the Astana meeting and holding the 2023 summit, it hosted virtually.

However, despite this growing perception, one yet has to see a concrete evidence that New Delhi is deviating away from the SCO, at least in the near future. Indian foreign minister S. Jaishanker’s visit to Islamabad would be a first visit by an Indian government official to Pakistan in a decade, it is hardly surprising that it generated a lot of hubbub that this opportunity could be used to break ice at the bilateral level and whether some progress would be made. Mr. Jaishanker was quick in ruling out any discussion on bilateral relations with Pakistan. According to media reports, he stated that “he expects “a lot of media interest” in the possibility of speaking to his Pakistani counterpart at the two-day summit about the two countries’ relations, … “But I do want to say it will be for a multilateral event. I am not going there to discuss India-Pakistan relations.” This is hardly surprising. Earlier in the year, he stated that “New Delhi intend to find a solution to the issues of years old cross-border terrorism and that it could not be a policy of good neighbor.”

Last month, New Delhi issued a second formal notice to Islamabad seeking a review of the Indus Water Treaty. New Delhi claims that India’s growing population and pressing agricultural demands necessitate a revision of the treaty. This demand must be viewed with the claim made by Modi that blood and water cannot flow together and what Bharat Karnard proposed as a solution to India’s Pakistan problem more than two decades ago. These are not isolated developments. Modi’s India is following a certain play book and in that peace with Pakistan or for that matter South Asia matters very little. New Delhi assumes that, its South Asian neighbors have to accept the fait accompli that India is the dominant power in the region. As regards relations with Pakistan, one must be cognizant of two important points: one, Modi’s India’s view of Pakistan; second Modi’s political career trajectory.

On the first: In the Indian strategic thinking, Pakistan is in a bad situation both internally as well as externally, whereas the regional and global power configuration is in India’s favor and provide an opportunity to take action and decisions based on its own strategic advantage. Therefore, Modi’s India has taken the position that if Islamabad wants to have a meaningful dialogue for a lasting peace between India and Pakistan, it must first stop the alleged cross-border terrorism, dismantle the alleged terror infrastructure and accept India’s dominant position in the region before it can engage with Islamabad. Modi’s political career trajectory is based on three points: Hindutva, anti-Indian Muslim and that he is the right man to solve India’s Pakistan problem.

Based on the above two points, would it make sense for Modi’s India to embark on a peace process with Pakistan? However, What New Delhi needs to consider is whether it would be possible for it to be accepted as a global power without having at least working relations with its neighbours, primarily Pakistan? Can India project itself as the dominant player in the Asia-Pacific region when it is not at peace with its neighbours? Can India be a powerhouse without being a South Asian power? Furthermore, Modi’s New Delhi should also take into account what one of their own, Vajpayee once said: you cannot change your neighbours. To sum it all up, the chances of any meaningful engagement between the two countries at this stage are remote. As regard the SCO, New Delhi’s current posture and policies towards China and Pakistan are in contrary to the SCO vision of regional connectivity and the ‘Comprehensive Action Plan (2023-2027) for Implementation of Long-Term Good Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation among the SCO Members’ of 2022.

While ruling out any bilateral talks with his counter parts, Mr. Jaishanker also stated that “I am going there to be a good member of the SCO, but since I am a courteous and civil person, I will behave myself accordingly.” Let’s hope the gentleman fulfills his promise.

Dr. Rizwan Zeb
The writer is a Karachi based Security Analyst.