It’s a make or break situation for EU (European Union) after Boris Johnson winning Westminster and the threat of Nazism entering European politics. Prominent media pundits and IR experts are building up different analyses over the recent elections in the UK and how it will shape the ongoing crisis after BREXIT becomes a reality. This election is as much important as the no-confidence motion against Neville Chamberlin during WW2 as it will shape the future of European politics.
Things were already looking worse for the EU after Greece and the Eurozone crisis. EU had to bail out Greece with a 289 billion Euro package, which ran over eight years and is considered the largest rescue in financial history. However, even today, when the primary manufactories are located in the industrial hubs of Berlin, people in peripheries of mainland EU are facing financial crisis and hold of Brussels to keep everyone united is weakening. Ukraine is another example of Many of EU failures and how powerful nations of EU can easily break up states, for their own hegemony in the region. EU’s and NATO’s debacle in Arab spring led to the influx of refugees to the EU, which currently is the primary cause of the rise of nationalist movements within Europe.
Leftists, liberals are facing the brunt of the crisis due to BREXIT and ghost of Nazism is back to haunt Europe once again. In 2016, I wrote a piece after BREXIT referendum in the UK, which predicted the rise of populism in Europe in the upcoming years. But the million-dollar question is that what’s next for EU? Is BREXIT the final nail in the coffin; an upcoming Anglo Saxon vs German-French animosity? Or Westminster losing her control over the British Isles?
For now Boris Johnson is enjoying a majority in parliament and as promised would go to any extent and ensure that he gets BREXIT done as early as possible. A populist figure who along with Nigel Farrage, launched the movement to bring back British imperialism once again. Germany has for a long time had control over the EU, because of Fatherlands dominance in manufactories and general foreign policy of the EU as a whole. Merkel and company, like it or not, had laid the foundation of the 4th Reich with economic prosperity and controlling affairs of European politics. If someone thinks that BREXIT will be a walk in the park for Boris Johnson, they are highly mistaken. If BREXIT is done and dusted, it is likely that far-right figures in the EU would use this to their advantage to ascertain the dominance of their ideology in specific countries within the EU.
Germany and France both on many occasions have supported the idea of division of British Isles to ensure that social democracy survives in the EU and Berlin and Paris be running the show of European politics. That’s the reason that both nations and their leadership don’t like Donald Trump interfering in European affairs, because it affects their own dominance in EU politics. But the ongoing refugee crisis and immigrants gaining political strength within EU, has reincarnated the nationalist forces, who are willing to send the refugees back to their respective countries in order to protect European culture, jobs and political representation. And so far the demographic trends do side with the nationalist message because of healthy fertility rate of immigrants and negative growth of natives in EU, it won’t be far when immigrants make up the majority of the EU population.
That’s why all eyes are on Scotland and Northern Ireland. SNP under the leadership of Sturgeon overwhelmingly supported to remain in EU during BREXIT referendum of 2016. She feels that Scots have been betrayed by Westminster as promises were made during Scottish independence referendum by London that they would never leave EU and Scotland, if became independent, won’t survive economically because of her disconnection with EU. Berlin has found a new ally after London’s betrayal, and Scotland will become a make and break situation for the EU in upcoming years. Politically Sturgeon’s SNP has made an inroad into Berlin politics as on 18th September 2019, according to a piece in Express UK, Brandenburg’s economy minster praised Sturgeon’s support for EU and ensured that Berlin will help SNP and Scotland in joining EU, a move seen as a threat by Berlin to conservatives in the UK.
On the other hand, Paris has, on many occasions, raised concerns over Trump’s expansionist policy in the region and disagreed with Trump on ending the Iran and P5 nuclear deal. A perfect example of a lack of unity amongst NATO partners is of the Persian Gulf crisis where Berlin and Paris have many times declined to extend support to the American and British navies. Macron, on some occasions, has even said that there is a need to establish a European centric alliance independent of American influence.
Today, Scotland for Berlin, Washington and London is the key for upcoming tectonic shifts that might take place in EU. For Trump, a close ally in Boris Johnson would help in increasing his support amongst nationalist figures in Europe and together, the US can once again ascertain her dominance in European affairs. For Paris and Berlin, Scotland independence is of extreme importance. As for the survival of Social democracy and keeping natives economically healthy, Scotland can become the best immigrant destiny and EU can economically boost Scotland and isolate Westminster’s influence in the British Isles.
Scots, however, would feel the brunt of economic plus military giants, influencing their politics to gain independence, they would have to compromise a lot with their European partners. All eyes are on Scotland as it would shape the future for Europe, it could result in Paris and Berlin sharing hegemony in order to protect Social democracy in the region, or due to NATOs disunity, Eastern Europe could fall back to Russian fold, or the Anglo-Saxon cousins (US and UK) forging a new Transatlantic alliance minus the French-German axis. All potential scenarios that can shape the future of Europe in upcoming days are perplexing and mind-boggling.
