An era of fifty years of oppression, subjugation, and suppression by the Al-Assad family came to an end on 8 December 2024, by a group of Sunni-led militant forces, mainly headed by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani under the umbrella of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Remarkably, within the span of eleven days, Damascus was liberated from a tyrant dictator by (ironically) another extremist and fundamentalist anti-Assad force. Unsurprisingly, the ousted Assad and his family have been granted asylum in Russia, which was once the critical ally of Assad’s regime.

Since 1971, Syria has been under the tight control of the Assad family. At that time, it was ruled by Hafez al-Assad, who belonged to the Alawite sect, one of the breakaway branches of Shia Islam, although the majority of Syria’s population followed the Sunni faith. His rule was also marked by the oppression and subjugation of the Sunni population of the country, although the ruling Ba’ath Party claimed to be a Syrian nationalist and secular party. Thus, the seeds of rebellion and discontent started in the early 1980s. However, with the turn of the 21st century and the change of command falling on the shoulders of Bashar al-Assad, he proved no different from his father when it came to political repression and economic coercion of the Sunni majority population.

The real challenge in Assad’s life came during the Arab Spring (2011) in Syria, where protestors demanded democracy and human rights. Despite his brutal tactics against protests, he survived with the help of Iran. However, this led to a civil war in Syria, where many Sunni-led militant groups challenged the authority of Assad’s regime.

Initially, Iran’s support for the Assad regime served a strategic purpose: strengthening the so-called “axis of resistance” network. For Tehran, it was critical to maintain the flow of weapons, information, and personnel to Hezbollah and Hamas, based in Lebanon and Gaza respectively, in order to weaken Israel. Without Syria on Iran’s chessboard, the supply chain would not operate smoothly for long. Thus, the post-2011 pro-Assad regime was a strategic asset for Tehran and its axis of resistance.

Under President Putin, who sought to expand Russian influence and demonstrate military might across Europe and the Middle East, Russia found an ally in Syria. Through its military support, the Assad regime was able to hold a strong grip on power. In return, Russia secured what it wanted: a naval airbase along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, a symbol of Russian power in the region.

What changed in the last eleven days to end 54 years of Assad family rule over Syria?

First, since the 7 October 2023 attacks, Iran and its proxies have come under severe assault from Israel and its allies. This has led to the decapitation of the top leadership of Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as the destruction of critical infrastructure. Many intelligence reports claim that by October 2024, Hezbollah was at its weakest point due to the loss of its leadership and critical weapons. Similarly, Hamas not only lost its leadership but also failed to garner credible support from Hezbollah and Tehran. Israel’s attacks on Iranian assets and pro-Iranian leadership across the Middle East dealt a humiliating blow to Tehran. Despite attempts to retaliate with direct attacks on Israel, Tehran failed to inflict significant damage. Consequently, the Gaza war greatly weakened Tehran and its axis of resistance, which in turn impacted the Assad regime, heavily reliant on Tehran and Hezbollah. Without their support, Syrian rebels seized the opportunity to topple Assad, forcing him to flee the country.

Second, another key ally of the Assad regime, Russia, has been preoccupied with its war in Ukraine since 24 February 2022. Much of its manpower, weapons, and attention are focused on the Ukrainian front. Syrian rebels recognised that President Putin’s commitments in Ukraine would prevent the Russian air force from coming to Assad’s aid as it did in 2015. Without Russian backing, Assad’s regime could no longer sustain itself in Damascus.

Third, in the absence of Tehran and Moscow, Israel capitalised on the situation in Syria. Intelligence reports suggest that Mossad and the CIA provided financial, weaponry, and logistical support to Syrian rebels, playing a critical role in toppling the Assad regime. Israel has a history of exploiting sectarian and ethnic divisions in the region to its advantage, ensuring that fractured nations remain unable to unite against Israel for the Palestinian cause and self-determination.

What are the repercussions of the Assad regime’s fall?

Firstly, the biggest loser in this scenario is Tehran, which has lost a critical ally essential for maintaining its regional influence and sustaining the supply chain to Hezbollah and Hamas. With Syria gone, the future of the entire axis of resistance is now in jeopardy. This is also a setback for Hamas and the Palestinian resistance, as Tehran’s ability to provide financial and military support to their struggle against Israel has been severely diminished.

Secondly, Russia faces a significant loss. Its naval bases along Syria’s Mediterranean coast cannot function effectively without Assad’s support. This is not only a strategic setback but also a blow to Russian pride.

The primary beneficiary is Israel, which has succeeded in disrupting the axis of resistance and eliminating a major threat to its security. Turkey has also seen a tactical advantage, as the removal of the Assad regime could facilitate the creation of a “safe zone” near its border to house Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.

However, the USA and other Western countries are still deliberating their stance on the evolving situation in Syria, as they have designated many Syrian rebel groups as terrorist organisations.

Sher Ali Bukhari
The writer is a UET alumni with keen interest in Pakistan’s foreign policy.