ISLAMABAD - A spectacular unraveling of Ashraf Ghani’s regime happened in Kabul, preceded by a dizzying speed of events that has left many analysts and commentators shocked and surprised. The Taliban took back Kabul seamlessly, without the bloodshed and violence that was commonly expected. Ghani decided to flee, along with two of his trusted aides, stuffing his entourage of SUV’s and a helicopter with money, some stacks of which did not even fit in the helicopter. Ashraf Ghani latched on to power despite losing the real mandate in the last Afghan elections, lacked credibility and legitimacy; corruption was rife and rendered his regime ineffectual. Without American support, thinking to challenge or confront the Taliban was a pipe dream. The bravado exhibited by his regime vanished in the thin air. The Afghan National Army, despite being armed to the teeth, surrendered ignominiously. But even the Taliban did not expect the speed with which they were able to retake Kabul, a fact acknowledged by Mullah Baradar in a statement Sunday. They are expected to take time to formally announce the new government.

Questions are now being asked about the failure of American and other intelligence agencies over not accurately predicting the speed and effectiveness of Taliban blitzkrieg. “Nobody expected the way it happened so fast,” a senior Pakistani official in Islamabad said Monday, referring to the Taliban takeover. Now that the Taliban are back in the saddle, regional powers and immediate neighbours are assessing the constantly evolving situation.

The big question is what happens next?

Officials in Islamabad say there are several suggestions to make the Taliban and their detractors agree on a political settlement. But the situation remains fluid.

Pakistan is hosting a delegation of leaders from the former Northern Alliance as discussions about the future setup in Afghanistan gain momentum. It remains to be seen whether the Taliban accommodate any other group, Pashtun or non-Pashtun. Pakistan wants a politically inclusive settlement, and officials say all of their efforts are geared to that end. Officials say the country is reaching out to Iran also, as there is a realization that not keeping Iran in the loop in the past was a mistake.

Officials in Islamabad have also heaved a sigh of relief that there has been no bloodshed, no anarchy in the Taliban takeover, although the possibility of violence cannot be precluded in the future.

Pakistani officials don’t foresee an immediate refugee crisis either. Those moving towards Pakistan will be stopped at the borders and will be treated as internally displaced people and not as economic refugees. But it is too early and remains to be seen whether a refugee influx builds up in the coming months.

Officials in Islamabad are also hoping that there will be no human rights violations in Afghanistan under the Taliban. Otherwise, international pressure and opprobrium can fall back on Pakistan. Officials are also cognizant that the scapegoating of the country can happen once the focus of the Europeans and Americans shifts away from the current hectic and panicked evacuation of their citizens and allies from Afghanistan. Statements by cabinet ministers cheering the Taliban takeover have led to diplomatic embarrassment and ruling party members have been told to exhibit restrain and responsibility.

For now, the absence of critical statements from foreign capitals has been a source of comfort. Similarly, India has also been officially silent, stunned by the dismantling of its years-long investment in Afghanistan, according to officials here.

Another big concern is the spillover effect of militancy. The victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan will inevitably result in the emboldening of the militants in Pakistan. Security officials say that Pakistan is hoping that the Afghan Taliban will put reins on the Pakistani Taliban. “The Taliban have promised that they will control the TTP,” a senior official said. “We want them to do more.” (Did anyone ever like the ‘do more’ mantra?)

The coming weeks and months will keep Pakistan on a tight rope walk. It does not want to be seen as a supporter of the Taliban; officials here are careful to add caveats like ‘don’t think we are advocating or defending the Taliban’ during background conversations. But Pakistan does not want to be on the wrong side of the Taliban either.