Iraq Plan: Abandoning strategic depth for Pakistan’s unprecedented global role

The ‘Iraq plan’ seeks contribution from Pakistan and Turkey to make positive efforts under Chinese-led economic bloc and Russian-led diplomatic offensive

It leaves no doubt that as long as militarism creeps in society through military dictatorships, then Pakistan would always witness democracy restored in intervals to the point where the nature establishes a spiritual democracy – eventually, closing doors for militarism. It is a ‘belief’ that the destiny of realizing the dream behind creation of Pakistan is ‘existence’ of an ‘Islamic’ welfare ‘republic.’ 

Can a country be termed as ‘Islamic’ and ‘republic’, simultaneously? Answer: Only when the evolutionary mechanism is 90 percent moral struggle and armed struggle is for rising up against aggression or oppression. Spiritual democracy, balancing religious and secular approaches, substantiates as moral struggle where moral law is the highest law. It is continuation of Imam Hosein’s moral struggle against militaristic status quo of Yazeedi establishment which was built upon Kharijite lies. In a nutshell: is Pakistan Army destined as the Muslim army that’ll wage Ghazwa-e-Hind? No. Not until and unless it changes its conduct. Did its conduct match those qualities of a Muslim army when it allowed Pro-Israeli NATO to invade and devastate the already divided and destructed Afghanistan? Alas, strategic depth! 

Having followed Kayani doctrine which had led to rise of Putin's Russia in geopolitical arena and success of Pakistani anti-terrorism ops, the Pakistani Civ-Mil government found an opportunity through CPEC to project and propel Pakistani interests on a strong footing. This led to increase in cooperation, coordination and collaboration between civil government and military establishment. Today, despite the differences, the Pakistani Civil and Military leadership in an unprecedented manner has carved out a middle path to ensure the survival of Pakistani state by diffusing internal and external conspiracies, while the whole time it was deemed important to close the gaps and to turn weaknesses into strengths through a new opportunity that in time would culminate into Iraq plan.

What is the Iraq plan? Simple: An attempt to disrupt pro-Israeli NATO attempt, which was to activate military flashpoints across Asia and instigate Sunni-Shia religious civil war in Islam. It aims at ultimate destruction of Pakistan. Secondly, to lay foundations of ground to destroy Russia and China. After brokering the Turkish-Russian rapprochement deal, the Pakistani PM proceeded to visit Belarus (Russian ally) and Azerbaijan (Turkish ally). As NATO is increasingly encircling Russia and rapidly deploying its forces to eastern Europe, the Sino-Russian led Eurasia camp has resorted to safeguard its interests across the globe. Belarusian President was in Pakistan and PM Nawaz Sharif has visited Belarus this year - twice. Pakistani PM and COAS also visited Azerbaijan in connection to Nagorno-Karabakh issue. After Erdogan's Turkey abandoned role of front firepower of NATO, the Sisi of Egypt was hot favourite to fill the empty spot. In the Post-Syrian ceasefire situation, the Pakistani COAS arrives in Cairo (Egypt) to meet the Egyptian President, General Fateh Al-Sisi. The stage for meeting had been set by previous visits of Chinese and Russian Presidents in the same year. Pakistani COAS provided assurance of EurAsian support to Egyptian Government and people - in case of NATO aggression, pressure and intimidation. It proved to be successful. By then, the Turkish leadership had decided to intervene in Syrian Aleppo and Iraqi Mosul. It was imperative for Turkey to do so due to American plan to divert ISIS from Mosul to Raqqa. Shia militiamen were sought to assist Iraqi Mosul offensive while Turkey backed Sunni Arabs and Turkmen. Despite the success in avoiding Egyptian-Hezbollah confrontation which could’ve occurred due to ISIS false flags, there are chances of clashes to erupt between Shi'ite Hezbollah, FSA, Kurds and Sunni Arabs. These groups are respectively backed by regional power players and global superpowers. FSA and Hezbollah have had clashes, already.

The spill out of ISIS terrorists in Syraq corridor endangers Egyptian territorial integrity as bomb blasts have become a monthly norm in Sinai. However, Egypt's Sisi showed positive restraint and remarkable diplomacy by refusing to be pulled deeper into wider war. This is what Pakistan, Turkey, Russia and China wanted. Pakistani-led and Turkish-sponsored 'Sino-Russian' presence in Iraq does come amidst declaration of Pakistani Defense Minister, Khawaja Asif, to provide assistance to Iraq. Russia is present in Syria. China, initially and originally, planned to intervene in Iraq. Instead, at last moment, China announced that it would proceed to assist Syria - not Iraq. This determines secret Sino-Russian presence in Iraq for a purpose. It is to avert any pro-Israeli NATO attempt to cause direct confrontation in Iraq. Turkish PM, Erdogan, stated that Turkish forces are present in Mosul on request of Iraqi Kurdish regional government. Meanwhile, Syrian Kurds are being beaten by Turkish army in Northern Syria. What does this imply? Though, Syrian Kurds have suggested no interest in 'controlling' Ar-Raqqa or Aleppo, the Iraqi Kurds announced to form Kurdistan 'National' (Current: Regional) in Mosul once it is liberated. Turkey wants to control Northern Iraq in order to influence Sunni Arabs and Kurds. Iran will control Southern Iraq and exert control influence on Shiite Militiamen. It is imperative to relate to meeting of Turkish and Iranian President as soon as Turkey withdrew its forces from Northern Syria while Syrian ceasefire plan was being finalized in the month of February.  This is not a plan for division of Iraq but an attempt to secure the factional positions in order to quell calls for independence based upon sectarianism or nationalism. It is to keep Iraq safe enough to be united and strong so that stakeholders of EurAsian camp can secure their footing in Middle East and elsewhere: as the Russian iron fist counters American Invisible Hand.

Khawaja Asif is a part of this plan. The civil government is part of this plan. The Pakistani Army is part of this plan. CPEC united the Civ-Mil government. Dawn leaks and Panama papers may have shaken the civil government but the jolts are not strong enough to invite boots or necessitate another strict military action. The Civ-Mil Government has back-stepped on the Islamabad Lockdown and put the ball in the 'court of Supreme Court.' While, during this time, they can continue with their Iraq plan. At this point in time, CPEC factor has brought Civ-Mil Govt to work on diplomatic campaigns. The challenges are high but the situation had never been such favourable in a manner that taking a single step also leads to concrete benefits. Hence, CPEC is model.  Both, the Civil Government and Army, are keen to look beyond the crises. 'They need something to propel.' This time, Government should allow platform for Opposition and ordinary citizens to contribute to the national cause. The ‘Iraq plan’ seeks contribution from Pakistan and Turkey to make positive efforts under Chinese-led Economic bloc and Russian-led Diplomatic offensive. Pro-Israeli NATO seeks to wage war against Russia and China. Before that, they want to destroy the world of Islam through Saudi-Iranian regional proxy war spiraling it into Sunni-Shia religious civil war.  Hezbollah-Egyptian clash was imminent in wake of ISIS false flags after being beaten in the Syraq-Egyptian corridor. Egyptian response is positive with remarkable diplomacy despite monthly bombings have become norm in Sinai (Egypt) which was enough to provoke Egypt. In pursuit of ISIS terrorists, there was high possibility of Hezbollah-Egyptian clash. This was done to set next stage of ‘gradual encirclement’ of Iran so that Saudi-Iranian proxy war draws more sides in order to instigate Sunni-Shia Religious civil war in world of Islam. There is another plan in case the Iraq plan fails (with the possibility of resulting in WW3 if Iraq plan fails to stand hold), due to flaws in execution plan regarding the Iraqi pursuit of Daesh terrorists who are being beaten towards Syria. It involves Russian factor but will be discussed extensively at later stage too.

The Kurds inhabit Northern Syria and Northern Iraq. Turkey intends to show Syrian and Iraqi Kurds the reality of American intentions of further destabilisation and destruction. ISIS terrorists will carry out attacks on Syrian Kurds after being expelled from Iraqi Kurdistan. Turkey seeks to unite the divided Kurds onto a single platform. However, if the plan to secure Iraq fails, there will be two dimensional responses of EurAsian camp. One is Russia.  Belarus has borders with Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland. These four countries were Soviet satellites. America exploits them. If they provide space for America to attack Russia; then, Belarus is strategically located to take out the four East European countries. Plus, Germany has announced to form its own West European force equal to NATO but unlike latter's ‘inherent’ default purpose of Pro-Israeliness. France and Italy were divided in the UN meeting of imposing sanctions over Russia due to Aleppo bombing and blockage of humanitarian aid convoys- an allegation which Russia strongly denies. Iraq plan has brought ‘workings’ of Pakistan, Turkey, Russia and China closer, with many other countries aligning rapidly. It is an attempt to overturn unjust Israeli attack on Iran.

If the attack occurs i.e. Iraq plan fails, then Pakistani-led and Turkish-sponsored 'Sino-Russian' presence in Iraq will facilitate Iranian annexation of Iraq while Mosul, Kirkuk and Erbil will be given to Kurds with Turkish patronage. This is why the divided Kurds are being pushed towards Iraqi Kurdistan regional Government. As soon as Iran thwarts direct confrontation with Saudi Arabia, the attempt to spiral regional proxy war into religious civil war with ultimate aim of WW3 will be dealt with best diplomatic and armed response. EurAsian alliance has come together as Chinese-led economic bloc that is set to be propelled through Russian-led diplomatic offensive. CPEC part of OBOR initiative has led to favourable response by Afghanistan, Iran, CARs, Turkey and Gulf countries. OBOR-CPEC plan will be expanded to lessen Saudi reliance on Strait of Hormuz. OBOR-CPEC plan intends to activate Saudi-Egyptian peninsula (Western Saudia) as Saudi trade point. This will address Saudi concern regarding Iranian influence in Central or Southern Iraq. Syria will be cleared from terrorists and Yemen will declare ceasefire. It is time the Pakistani leadership utilises the next phase after the emergence of Chinese-led economic bloc i.e., the Russian-led diplomatic offensive. Pakistani leadership has to decide in case of such crises and circumstances as to how it will move forward.

Iraq plan provides considerably strong element for Pakistani Civil Government and Military establishment to work together to resolve differences. If CPEC provided platform to work together, is it sensible or intelligent to lose the fruit as 'Propel' principle is initiating Chinese-led economic bloc to launch Russian-led diplomatic offensive against evil designs of Pro-Israeli NATO? India will have to decide whether it stands the odd one out in Asia? Will it stand for moral principles being the largest democracy or will it facilitate imposition of Israeli global military dictatorship through WW3? The Pakistani civil and military government is pursuing the plan will full speed and interest. After success of CPEC plan to unite Civ-Mil Government, the next stop: Russia factor.  If Dictator Sisi can defy Saudi Arabia and deny pro-Israeli NATO’s assistance in favour of joint Russian-Egyptian war games while allowing Russian war ships to cross the Mediterranean Sea; what has deterred Pakistani leadership in moving from CPEC to Russia factor, upholding it as a vital part of Iraq plan that will ensure continued collaboration, cooperation and collaboration between Pakistani civil and military government regarding national, regional and global interest. It is time Khawaja Asif declares Iraq Plan as national policy and ceased his nonsensical political jibes. The success of Iraq plan will strengthen Pakistan and her allies.

Pakistani people deserve to become part of such national policies i.e. Iraq plan. The Pakistani civil government and army have all good reasons to activate Pakistani people to pursue an EurAsian agenda to make Iraq plan a success story. Two fronts and stages of the Great Game are: (I) Suni-Shia religious civil war in Islam (II) Destruction of Russia and China. The interlink ‘play’ mechanism is where Pakistan comes in.  The aim of Sunni-Shia religious Civil war is destruction of Pakistan. Iraq plan involves Pakistani led and Turkish sponsored 'Sino-Russian' presence in Iraq. Khawaja Asif announced assistance to Iraq, a couple of months ago. It was an ironic stance. A statement that had meaningful significance in the aftermath of Pakistani brokerage of Turkish-Russian rapprochement deal; a matter which Israel envied. Similarly, the 'alleged' surgical strikes against Pakistan were to gain attention of Russia and China. The Chinese response and Russian indifference to Indian aggressive posture against Pakistan depicted symbolic 'No.' The day after BRICS conference ended, Modi stated that the Indian Special Forces' activities and professionalism are no less than Israeli exploits. These are coded messages as Greater Middle East is emerging. Today, most Asian countries have conjoined regional alliance into continental alliance. Russia will survive the inter-continental aligned global nuclear war as it is not only a western but eastern country as well. Same goes for Turkey.

Waqas Mahmood Ali is an International Strategy Analyst and Political commentator. Waqas is a former member of staff at 'The Nation' newspaper. He is 'Phd Candidate' at Strategic Studies Department at Air University. He is associated with Newspapers, Radio and, Policy, Political and Media think tanks. He can be reached on twitter at @WaqasMahmoodAli

ePaper - Nawaiwaqt