After more than three weeks of unprovoked Indian army aggression on the LOC and Sialkot working boundary, the Indian Prime minister Modi has reconfirmed his anti muslim and anti Pakistan credentials.
It is now abundantly clear that Modi the hardliner hindu extremist seems determined to follow the path of confrontation rather than that of peace and cooperation with Pakistan. Prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s sweet mango diplomacy was bound to fail.
While India unilaterally called off the foreign secretary level talks in end august this year, Modi’s visit to the White House a few weeks later was the game changer. From a villain of the 2002 Gujrat massacre to the new darling of the west, a different Modi returned displaying more confidence and arrogance in his newly assigned role of regional bully to deal with India’s nuclear armed neighbor.
Buoyed by President Obama’s support for India’s permanent seat in the UN Security Council, that acknowledged India’s regional and global role, the joint statement issued at end of the visit reiterated enhanced Indo – US defence cooperation as well as joint and concerted efforts to dismantle terrorist safe havens including Al Qaeda, Lashkar e Taiba, Jaish Mohamad and the Haqqanis.
With India buying almost $2 billion of military hardware from the US in 2013, the United States surpassed Russia as India’s biggest supplier of weapons/ equipment.
But where credit is due, it must be given wholeheartedly. Prime minister Nawaz Sharif must be commended for taking a bold position on the Kashmir issue in UN general assembly that more than compensated for his silence on the same during his visit to New Delhi to attend Modi’s oath taking ceremony last year.
That the revitalization of the Kashmir issue at UNGA was a big blow to India’s efforts to keep it on the back burner, also explains the intensity of India’s mini war on LOC/ Sialkot boundary. This diplomatic strategy towards renewed internationalization of Kashmiris’ right to self determination should be followed up aggressively to forestall Modi’s plans to repeal Article 370, which guarantees special status to Indian Occupied Kashmir.
Has the government’s response to the crisis been up to the mark? Nawaz Sharif disappointed the nation with his continued policy of appeasement towards India in this hour of national crisis. Instead of a weak and meek political response, it was expected that the prime minister and his key ministers would provide the required leadership and match Modi and his cabinet members’ aggressive rhetoric with an equally tough political message from Pakistan’s side.
Even the statement at the conclusion of the National Security Committee’s meeting that was attended by top armed forces leadership leaders seemed rather soft and did not reflect the true national mood and sentiment. An emergent joint session of the parliament should have been convened to condemn Indian aggression.
Lodging a complaint with UN Military Observers Group, on site UN inspection of destruction in affected civilian populated areas or circulating a document at the UN are not sufficient to highlight Pakistan’s case at the international level. The government should have knocked the door of the UN Security Council with a strong resolution to seek UNSC’s support..
With the civilian population being targeted on the Pakistani side on Eid ul Azha and onwards, the nation expects an even firmer military response in a war like situation created by a traditionally hostile neighbor. If Modi recently boasted about raining ‘1000 mortars that left the enemy screaming,’ Pakistan’s military response should make the enemy think twice before challenging Pakistan again .
One hears rumors of some Operation Jai Krishna in the offing. India’s obsession with Jamaat ud Dawa ‘s (JUD) leader Hafiz Saeed is well known. Any Indian attempt to launch surgical strikes against JUD headquarters in Muridke under cover of escalation on the LOC and Sialkot working boundary, awaits a warm and befitting Pakistani response.
Any such adventure would be considered an act of war and not go unpunished. It may be recalled that a PAF F-16 shot down an Indian Searcher-II UAV of Israeli origin at an altitude of 13000 feet on the night of June 07, 2002 South West of Lahore.
The nation still remembers Eid ul Fitr on April 10, 1959, when an intruding Canberra high altitude bomber of the Indian Air Force which was on a secret photo reconnaissance mission in Pakistan’s airspace, was intercepted and shot down near Rawalpindi.
The Indians are fully aware of the consequences in case they resort to any adventurism on the international order. One cannot forget then Army Chief Gen Pervez Musharraf’s threat to his Indian counterpart during the address to the nation at the height of the India – Pakistan standoff in 2002, with both armies in contact on the international border. When Musharraf warned of letting loose ‘all hell and storm of fire’ in case the Indian army crossed the line, the Indians knew perfectly well what he meant.
Pakistan’s latest surface-to-surface, multitube nuclear capable Nasr missile system with a 60 km range, provides an ideal tactical battlefield deterrent to any of India’s Cold Start style strategy. Modi may have to reconsider his policy of arm twisting viz a viz his nuclear armed neighbor that is eyeing second strike capability.
Recent events also confirmed the emerging ‘Modi- Military- Media’ nexus against Pakistan. Barring one or two odd Pakistani TV channels, our electronic media has yet to confront and counter Indian electronic media’s venom against Pakistan.
Prime Minister Modi must understand that Pakistan will resist Indian hegemony in the region. Instead he should focus on peaceful co existence as well as dispute resolution through a sustained dialogue process in the spirit of Simla Accord and Lahore Declaration. If this is not possible, then it is time for third party international mediation to bring peace to the region.
India stands to gain more economically by sincerely making definite and meaningful progress towards the resolution of outstanding disputes like Kashmir, water, Siachin and Sir Creek.
If this happens, then the normalization of relations including grant of MFN/ NDMA (non discriminatory market access) to India as well as the Indian dream to gain access to vital energy/ trade corridors via Pakistan to Central Asia/ Gwadar/ Kashgar (China) could well become a reality in the coming years.
The writer is a retired brigadier and a political/defence analyst and columnist.