A formal meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in Russia is surely good news for the region. A day before the summit, it was announced that the two sides had agreed to ease tensions in the Himalayan mountains, where the militaries of both countries have been engaged in their worst confrontation since 2020. Historically, the 3,488-kilometre-long demarcation of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has been a cause of friction between the two Asian powers. Since 2020, tense standoffs in the Galwan Valley and aggressive military presence on both sides have heightened mistrust between the two countries.
A blend of competition and cooperation has characterised China-India relations, heavily impacted by geopolitical changes, growing economic competition, and regional security concerns, alongside long-standing border disputes. A complex interplay of historical, territorial, political, and economic factors has fuelled the competition between China and India. With both countries asserting sovereignty over Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, territorial disputes remain a major flashpoint in the region. In recent years, strategic rivalry has intensified due to China’s growing influence in South Asia, driven by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its strong relations with Pakistan. As China and India vie for political and strategic influence, geopolitics, economic ambitions, and security considerations become key drivers of their respective worldviews.
Despite fierce competition, China and India are often tempted to cooperate. Both countries share similar strategic, economic, and global concerns, stemming from common responsibilities in areas such as trade, regional stability, and addressing global challenges like pandemics and climate change. Both nations play important roles in multilateral organisations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS, where their collaboration is crucial for global governance. Initiatives such as energy connectivity, cross-border trade, and cultural ties also serve as catalysts for collaborative endeavours. However, their cooperation is frequently influenced by the need to strike a balance, particularly in the face of rising regional and global responsibilities.
The relationship between China and India is also shaped by the harsh geopolitical realities of the world. India-China relations are directly affected by the strategic competition between China and the United States. The “China factor” in India-US relations has contributed to India’s closer strategic ties with the US. China views the support for India from Western nations as a challenge to its regional influence. Both China and India are key players in Asia, yet tensions persist due to their conflicting objectives. China’s BRI faces challenges from new partnerships, such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Additionally, regional dynamics are shifting rapidly due to developments in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific.
China and India’s economic engagement is deeply interconnected with shared regional interests and economic ambitions. China has surpassed the United States as India’s major trading partner, with bilateral trade between China and India standing at $118 billion in 2024. The two countries maintain an extensive list of import and export items, which continues to grow. Furthermore, Chinese businesses have made significant investments in India’s start-up and technology sectors. Through trade agreements, infrastructure financing, and diplomatic outreach, both countries compete for economic influence in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Despite their strategic competition, China and India are likely to remain economically intertwined.
China and India, two of Asia’s largest and most populous countries, share a complex and contentious relationship. This fraught relationship has broader implications for regional security in South Asia. The strategic rivalry between China and India affects their relationships with smaller neighbouring states, such as Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, often forcing these nations into a delicate balancing act. Additionally, the proximity of Pakistan, a close ally of China and a traditional adversary of India, intensifies the security dilemma in the region. Shared concerns, such as terrorism, economic instability, and climate change, are often overshadowed by mutual mistrust, rendering multilateral initiatives under forums like BRICS and the SCO less effective. The evolving power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific underscore the need for sustained dialogue and confidence-building measures to maintain peace and stability in the region.
Despite the stated intent of the two leaders to resume mutually beneficial economic interactions and move towards a patrolling agreement along the LAC, mistrust between China and India remains high. It is worth noting that India is aggressively building connectivity and military infrastructure along the LAC. Moreover, the United States factor in China-India reconciliation cannot be ignored, and it is highly unlikely that India would alter the course of its relations with the US. Nations, undoubtedly, weigh shared obligations against their long-term national interests.
Dr. Talat Shabbir
The writer is Director of China-Pakistan Study Centre at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.
