This piece is a sequel to my earlier published op-ed titled “Wall of BRICS”, where I had stated that “the overall economic imperatives and geopolitical developments seem intertwined to shape events in favour of a cooling-off period between India and China.” Although both Chinese and Indian analysts carefully opine that the recent agreement and implementation of the China-India border patrol protocol will indeed help ease tensions along the border and improve bilateral relations, the extent of this improvement may remain limited, and its duration may not be long-lasting due to various reasons associated with the strategic contest in the Asia-Pacific. For Chinese companies and capital, there may be a window of opportunity in the Indian market. However, for trade and economic projects requiring long-term commitment and significant investment, both sides will need to tread cautiously. Nevertheless, both major regional contestants have found it mutually useful to set disputes aside temporarily and pursue their respective economic and trade interests.
Following the partition of British India in 1947, Jammu and Kashmir, a princely state with a Muslim majority but ruled by a Hindu monarch, became a point of contention between the newly formed India and Pakistan. This led to the first Indo-Pak war. As the conflict escalated, India brought the matter to the United Nations, which, in 1948, called for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of forces from the region. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed resolutions stipulating that the future of Kashmir would be determined by a plebiscite, allowing the people of the region to choose between joining India or Pakistan. However, this plebiscite has never taken place, leaving the status of Kashmir unresolved.
For the people of Kashmir, it has remained a consistent political and armed struggle against Indian military occupation, atrocities, and human rights abuses. For India and Pakistan, it has been the core issue behind three wars, numerous border skirmishes, and a constant state of “no war, no peace” hostility, impacting all aspects of their bilateral relations. This underscores the fact that war between the two nuclear-armed countries cannot resolve the Kashmir conundrum. The continued denial of the right to self-determination under UN resolutions and international law has exacerbated the grievances of the Kashmiri population, leading to widespread disillusionment and leaving the people of occupied Kashmir in a quandary.
The strategic importance of Kashmir, due to its location between India, Pakistan, and China, further complicates the issue. Both India and Pakistan view control over Kashmir as vital to their national security and identity. In recent years, the situation in Kashmir has deteriorated further.
The international community has remained oblivious to the complete shutdown and curfews in Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) since August 2019. This was when the extremist BJP government in India deprived Kashmir of its special constitutional status and its people of special rights by revoking Articles 35A and 370 of the Indian Constitution. The incumbent far-right BJP government, as the political face of the extremist organisation RSS, has long pursued its goal of creating a Greater India.
India, emboldened by its status as a new American strategic ally in the Asia-Pacific (through the QUAD alliance) primarily to contest and contain China, has accelerated its efforts to change the demography of occupied Kashmir. This includes establishing Sainik (military) colonies, industrial zones for Indian investors, and, most nefariously, introducing domicile certificates for Hindus from across India. It is assessed that Modi and his team may ultimately stage-manage a plebiscite in occupied Jammu and Kashmir to resolve the Kashmir issue on the UN Security Council agenda.
By and large, global powers remain unconcerned, prioritising trade and economic interests over high moral principles. Ironically, Israel supports India in occupied Kashmir, a stance akin to betraying its own history while perpetrating the brutal genocide of Palestinian Muslims in Gaza.
The Kashmir conflict is one of the most complex and enduring territorial, ideological, moral, and political disputes in modern history, shaping the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. At the heart of this seven-decade-long issue lies a broken promise: the unimplemented plebiscite meant to allow the people of Jammu and Kashmir to decide their future.
Be that as it may, the forums and charters of organisations such as the SCO and BRICS+ blocs may offer a pathway for India and Pakistan to prioritise mutual economic interests. This could ultimately pave the way for resolving the Kashmir issue, the Indus Water Treaty dispute, and other territorial conflicts.
Following the example of recent India-China cooling-off efforts, Pakistan and India may find it mutually beneficial to revisit the Agra Summit (2021) and the Chenab Formula to explore greater economic dividends. Despite India’s haughty posture, sincere experts on the Kashmir issue from both sides of the border may draw upon Chinese wisdom to explore fresh and visionary approaches to finding an amicable and peaceful resolution to this most significant flashpoint in South Asia.
Saleem Qamar Butt
The writer is a retired senior army officer with experience in international relations, military diplomacy and analysis of geo-political and strategic security issues.
