The Iran Deadlock

It is not surprising that Iran’s response to any of the Western powers on a nuclear deal is less than friendly. The seventh round of talks in Vienna to restore Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal has ended and the negotiating world powers are not close to an agreement.

Why should the global community have seen this coming? Firstly, there is the evident fact that Iran’s government has seen a major change. There has been the arrival of a new government in Iran, which is markedly different; the new President Ebrahim Raisi is reported to be more conservative and hardline than the previous Rouhani government. The Raisi foreign policy was always expected to be firmer and more unforgiving.

Secondly, world powers must also be cognisant of the fact that what is happening on the diplomatic stage with other countries affects any potential transactions in the region. Escalations of the European Union and the US with Russia or China are bound to have an impact on Iran’s approach towards reconciliation over nuclear matters.

The result is the current scenario. Talks have come to a stale point, with both sides frustrated. The Iranian side, aggravated by US’ initial betrayal and the developments occurring in the region, wants significant changes to the agreement and lifting of all sanctions.

The UK, France and Germany, also representing the US, have adopted a more rigid position, asking Tehran to return to the original deal. Iran has granted repaired cameras at nuclear facilities, but the European powers expect that the programme is at its most advanced stage.

What is missing most is an inherent lack of trust between the parties. If the EU wants Iran to back down this, it should consider the carrot approach, rather than the stick, which has been shown to fail. The EU must also bring the US back to the fold and look to ease some sanctions to allow for more trust by Iran, and rather the whole region, to be built.

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