The Ukraine war seems to be getting nowhere, with Russia maintaining control over significant Ukrainian territory. The European Union, anticipating an ever-aggressive Russia if the war concludes without Ukraine reclaiming its territory, is in a difficult position. The EU’s strong stance will be compromised if Trump wins the US presidential election, as he and his nominated vice president view the Ukraine-Russia war as futile—a conflict that only drains US funds in aid to Ukraine. Given the near certainty of Trump’s victory, dissidents within the EU pose another challenge.

Germany, the NATO defector, struggles to allocate larger portions of its 2025 budget to defense spending and already seeks to halve its contributions to Ukraine. Although the recent NATO Summit in DC saw member states set aside substantial assistance for Ukraine, the pipeline of funds can only last so long. Europe’s dependence on the US in this matter is the decisive variable. Within the EU, Hungary’s Victor Orban has proposed a self-floated peace plan for Ukraine, suggesting Trump as the mediator. Despite being strongly pushed aside by other EU member states, these developments raise the question of where the stalemate will lead. If the money and Western supply line for Ukraine evaporates, surrender will be the only option—a nightmare for Europe. However, EU countries also struggle to balance tough economic challenges with the military expenditures NATO requires them to maintain.

NATO largely thrives on the US’s leadership. With Trump as president and the US seeing no direct threat to its territory, foreign policy will undergo a 360-degree shift. This will multiply Europe’s financial burden and dilemma. However, the stalemate has to end sooner or later. While Western-backed Ukraine is not giving up anytime soon, NATO dynamics and the US’s new foreign policy under Trump might bring a quicker end to the war.