ISLAMABAD  -  The Friday was full of suspense as has been in the recent political history of the country. The supreme court’s clarification yesterday on the reserved seats was the first turn of the day in the political saga continuing since former prime minister Imran Khan was ousted via a no-confidence motion in 2022.

It was the second clarification from the apex court which almost coincided with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) possibly taking a decision on the reserved seats in the light of the letters written by Speakers of the National Assembly and the provincial assemblies emphasizing for allocation of reserved seats to the ruling alliance after the amendment made to the Election Act in August this year.

The Supreme Court in its clarification has said that the amendment made to the Election Act cannot undo the apex court judgment on reserved seats. It said that the ECP is “bound to implement judgment” passed by the Supreme Court without seeking any further clarification. On July 12, a 13-judge full bench of the apex court had declared that the opposition PTI was eligible to receive reserved seats for women and non-Muslims in the national and provincial assemblies, dealing a major setback to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s ruling coalition and potentially making the PTI the single largest party in both houses of the Parliament. Based on the changes to the Election Act, Speaker National Assembly Ayaz Sadiq had sent a letter to the ECP last month saying that the judgment on reserved seats “cannot be implemented under the Amended Election Act, 2017”.

Friday was already abuzz with the media reports that the ECP may allocate reserved seats to the ruling alliance and the JUI-F in the light of the amended Election Act but the sudden clarification from the Supreme Court seemingly shattered the government’s plans to get a two-thirds majority via a plan-B. Though it would have been unconstitutional and against the set judicial norms for the ECP to notify legislators on the reserved seats in the light of the amended Election Act that which was apparently enacted to undo the top court’s judgment in the reserved seats case, but the government seemed ready to exploit this last option to push the controversial constitutional amendments through the parliament. Despite hectic efforts to win support for the constitutional amendments, the government was still looking short of the two-thirds majority in both houses of the parliament.

But the developments later in the day gave strength to the notion that the ruling alliance has, somehow, managed the two-thirds majority in the Senate. First the special committee “unanimously” approved the draft amendments bill and then the federal cabinet was called to an emergency session to approve the draft. However, the cabinet meeting ended without endorsing the draft bill. Soon after the Senate session was also adjourned to meet again today (Saturday). The ECP meeting on reserved seats also ended inconclusively. According to sources, the absence of a key member derailed the ECP meeting on reserved seats case. The government and its allied parties had summoned the notified members for additional reserved seats to the federal capital, they said. It is noteworthy that the ECP had suspended the members holding additional reserved seats based on the Supreme Court ruling. If the Election Commission decides to allocate these seats to the ruling coalition and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-F, they will secure a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly. The Election Commission has also filed a review petition regarding the Supreme Court’s decision on the reserved seats.

WHAT NEXT: It seems that the political drama would start today from exactly where it was ‘adjourned’ a day earlier. Federal cabinet is likely to meet early in the morning while the Senate is scheduled to meet at 11am. The National Assembly session has been summoned to meet at 6pm. According to the sources, the government has managed two-thirds majority in the Senate. They said that two senators from the PTI and JUI-F each, and two from the Akhtar Mengal’s National Party may vote for the constitutional amendments. According to the PTI sources, one of their female senators has recently travelled from abroad to Pakistan against the party directions and, they fear, she might vote for the amendments. Mufti Abdul Shakoor of the JUI-F is also missing just to appear in the Senate session on the occasion of voting, according to the party sources. The government needs 64 votes to pass the amendments and is apparently short of five votes, according to the book. However, the government’s confidence tells a different story.

As far as the National Assembly is concerned, the government may rely on the ECP to gain a two-thirds majority in the House. It is believed that once the constitutional amendments are made through the Senate, the ECP may allocate the reserved seats to the ruling alliance paving the way for the passage of the much-touted constitutional amendments. However, it is yet to be seen how the opposition parties, the PTI And JUI-F, get united in stance, react to the government move. The JUI-F chief has given clear indications that any attempt to “forcibly” pass the amendments would lead to political instability.