ISLAMABAD   -  A very interesting and close contest is expected between PTI’s Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh and Opposition’s Yousaf Raza Gilani in the upcoming Senate election despite ruling alliance will have its upper hand in the race because of having its thin majority in the National Assembly. 

This contest will remain tough for the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) only if Senate election is held through secret balloting as the Supreme Court has yet to decide the Presidential reference seeking open balloting for the Upper House of Parliament. 

The PTI has fielded its Finance Minister Hafeez Sheikh for a general seat of Senate for Islamabad while former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, a heavy weight, is the joint candidate of opposition’s Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) to contest him. 

The National Assembly, 342-member Lower House of the Parliament, is the electoral college for four seats of Senate from Islamabad. The polling would be held on two seats, one general and the other allocated for women, of Senate for Islamabad. The election on two seats of Islamabad is held after every three years out of the four seats allocated to the federal capital for the Upper House. 

As on February 19, the NA has total 339 members as election on two of its seats was held on Friday while election on another seat is scheduled to be held on weekend.  By having a look at the party strength in National Assembly, PTI and its allies have total 178 seats there while all Opposition parties including four independent lawmakers in the house have total strength of 161. 

On the basis of number game, PTI has an upper hand over the Opposition for the Senate election on Islamabad seat if the polling would be held through open voting. Any candidate will be the winner who will get more votes than his opponent from the present strength of the House on election day—March 3. However, the election will become very close if the polling was held through secret balloting keeping in view the stature of former Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani who is a seasoned politician from Multan and has personal as well as family ties with many those political families in Punjab and Sindh who are in the ruling alliance.  Gilani, the central leader of Opposition Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), has strong ties with the family of Pir Pagara that leads Sindh-based Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA)—an ally of government in the center. He also had strong connections with those politicians who were once part of the PPP and later joined the PTI. 

The PDM is also trying to give an impression that the election on the general seat of Islamabad is a test case for it in order to materialize its idea of moving a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan in future. 

On the hand, Minister for Finance Hafeez Sheikh is a technocrat and has no long association with the ruling party. He also remained Finance Minister during the last PPP’s central government. The ruling party has enhanced its efforts to ensure that no member of the ruling alliance should cross the floor and vote for its candidate in Islamabad while sensitizing the situation that PDM wanted to cause it a dent through Gilani’s victory.  

And the win of Hafeez Shaikh for the PTI is also crucial because the ruling party and its allies are going to get a very thin majority in the 104-mmeber House and any upset on few those seats that they are surely to win on the basis of present strength of National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies can deprive them for the position of next Chairman Senate. Though it would also be difficult for PTI and its allies to elect their own chairman Senate even if they win all seats on the basis of their strength in the Assemblies.