PTI claims it will get back its reserved seats immediately after deseating
5 members elected on reserved seats

ECP to take a decision soon after consulting legal experts

LAHORE   -  Calculating the numbers in the Punjab Assembly has never been as difficult a task as it has become now following the two successive landmark decisions by the Supreme Court of Pakistan and the Election Commission regarding the fate of 25 PTI legislators who had voted for Hamza Shehbaz Sharif in the chief minister’s election last month.

The resultant situation has triggered an interesting debate about the numbers’ game in Punjab Assembly as both the PML-N and the PTI are claiming majority in the provincial house. Ironically, it is a situation where a party has lost 25 of its members, but it is being counted as a loss to the other party, the PML-N. Also, a political party, the PTI, has lost support of four legislators which did not actually belong to it. More interestingly, even though the PML-N has got back its four disgruntled MPAs as a result of the SC’s ruling, they are of no use to it unless they take a U-turn and decide to vote for it in the changed circumstances. Their votes will not be counted and they will also lose their seats if they still decide to ditch their parent party. They will be de-seated even if they abstain from voting in the Assembly. As a matter of fact, the resultant situation has dented the respective strengths of both the parties, the PML-N and the PTI. But the latter has been affected the most notwithstanding the claims and the counter claims made in this regard.

Two important factors which have come into play for the first time in the country’s parliamentary history are leading to the confusion worse confounded regarding the respective numerical strengths of the political parties in the Assembly. It is now no more a simple matter of mathematics, as it also involves arithmetic, which is about numbers, addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, exponentiation and much more.

The first factor contributing to the current confusion over the numbers in the fractured Punjab Assembly is the legal position over the five reserved seats lost by the PTI among 20 other legislators. It merits mention here that reserved seats in the Assembly are allocated to the political parties in proportion to the number of general seats they win in the general elections. Immediately after the results are notified by the Election Commission, the political parties submit a list of their nominees for the reserved seats of women and minorities in order of priority and the Election Commission allocates the seats according to the set formula.

The PTI’s assertion about its gaining majority in the Punjab Assembly based on five reserved seats it will supposedly win can be true in the normal circumstances. When a reserved seat falls vacant owing to resignation, disqualification or death of a member, the candidate next in line in the priority list of that party takes his or her place.  But after having lost 20 general seats along with five reserved seats, makes it a different case altogether. The PTI claims it will get back its reserved seats immediately after deseating the five members elected on the reserved seats. If this is the case, the combined numerical strength of the PTI and the PML-Q will come to 173, still one number short of the simple majority which is 174 in a house of 364.

And, if this does not happen, the opposition’s alliance will be left with 168 members, four numbers short of the ruling alliance.   After losing the support of 25 members, the PML-N and the allied parties will have 172 members and will be needing support of at least two independent members to prove simple majority in the House. One independent member Bilal Asghar Warraich met with Hamza Shehbaz on Friday and pledged his support. The PML-N is also stated to be in contact with Ahmad Ali Aulak, another independent member who is likely to support its candidate in any future election.

When contacted to know the legal position about allocation of reserved seats in Punjab Assembly, the ECP’s spokesperson in Islamabad Haroon Khan said that he was not in a position to offer any official comment in this matter as it was a new situation never witnessed before.  He said the ECP will formulate its response soon after consulting its legal team.  The second factor adding to the confusion regarding the numbers in Punjab Assembly is the wavering vote of four PML-N dissidents who had switched loyalties to the PTI. But after the SC’s ruling that votes of defectors will not be counted, it is not clear yet whether they return to their parent party or abstain from voting.