What Trump’s inaugural speech tells us about the future of diplomacy and tolerance in the US

It is solo sailing for him unless he brings any change to the stance he adopted in Friday’s speech

As anticipated, the new US president Donald J. Trump’s inaugural speech was fairly strong worded, full of promises and generally meant for domestic consumption. But in the process, he made it too US focused thus alienating the rest of the world, to which he paid thanks initially. The promises of just focusing on US economy while ignoring the irrefutable globalization seem impractical. Walking away from globalization that has been so carefully woven over the last more than 40 years isn't an easy trail. US has remained the biggest beneficiary of globalization. As per his rhetoric, if all goes for America first then how about US companies that have been expanding businesses across the globe? Other countries could also claim the same and encourage, for instance, their local fried chicken joints instead of KFC and McDonald's. It doesn't work that way. Who and how would the US be able to stop the countries if they go off on copyright infringement spree? The decisions of US courts may not be binding anymore on the major corporations, who for now do respect their business interests within US. And then there is a question of other countries, who might reevaluate their balance of trade, which so far has been heavily biased toward the US.

The global militaries – and they include US-knit NATO umbrella members as well – would be free on their course without taking dictation from the US or wage war to please the US. It cannot work; it has to be all-inclusive or the present world order would no more be dictated by US. And it is bound to see the waning authority in the far off regions of the world. Merely military might wouldn't be able to give the US advantage anymore, if the foreign governments don't see their advantage in it. However, if the Trump administration wants to walk away from its global ambitions, then certainly it would be welcome news for many. But history doesn’t support it. No civilization that enjoys a worldwide status (imperial or not) abdicates its ‘right’ to run the world. It has never happened; however, if Trump could do it, it would change the basic thinking of the species knows as homo sapiens.

On the economic front, the American clout as the locomotive of world economy is already eroding; these new indications from Trump's speech would simply hasten the process. It is the very nature of human being to respect those only from whom they see any potential benefit in financial, political or moral terms. If Trump sticks to his words, he would be on fast track to isolate the US from the rest of the world’s affairs, which it achieved after 60 years of hard work and by investing trillions of dollars. And the US would go back to its pre-World War II status, only that this time there would not be Great Britain or any other country from the Western civilization to perpetuate modern colonization. Some Asian economies are brimming but are not yet ready to sweep for the area of influence, thus causing huge power vacuums. These vacuums would be filled with regional and local alliances, but these clusters too wouldn't be permanent in nature, as no matter how rosy it sounds, they don’t have much to offer each other. It is not necessary going to be a chaotic situation, but we would increasingly march towards it. We as humans have learned these ways of life over the past multiple-millennia – to have a drill-master!

The US indifference in the Third World would soon result in the realization that US hegemony was a mixed blessing after all. The dissident elements would have little to worry about and we would see the reemergence of strong and iron-fisted dictatorships and in the less structured countries – an increase in tribalism. Civil wars would be more common. It doesn’t necessary mean that US was always benevolent in its character; however, it was a magic-master who knew how to put the genie back in the bottle, if it honestly desired so.

The other element to ponder in Trump's speech is the lack of the word 'tolerance' for the citizens of US. Though he emphasized the need of national cohesion but that is too abstract for a man on the street to comprehend. Thus marginalized communities might experience an increase in the hate-crimes directed at them. Even if doesn't manifest in actual crimes, for sure, the feeling of increased insecurity is going to be rampant. The demand of patriotism is a fair one and his choice of words such as 'black, brown and white' signals towards the ‘US melting-pot’ phenomenon. But his lack of the use of the word multi-religious or multi-ethnic could send a wrong message for the intolerant section of the American society.

Another thing which Trump might have to live with is of the lack of broad media support. I do see a zero tolerance policy for Trump if he commits any folly. If he cannot bring everybody onboard quickly, his approval rating would be slipping out of his hand surprisingly faster than anyone might expect. His honeymoon period may not carry that much of an immunity slack time. Also, Democrats in both houses and some Republicans too, wouldn't be there for his rescue. So it is solo sailing for him unless he brings any change to the stance he adopted in Friday’s speech.

Bahadar Ali Khan is an avid reader of Pakistani politics, world history, science and culture. He is a freelance writer, blogger and an IT consultant by profession. Follow his blog

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