Geopolitical context of AfPak-Syraq equation: Kurdistan is second stage of Iraq plan

The visit of Trump to Riyadh, Jerusalem, Vatican and Brussels sets forward trajectory for warmongering interventionist policy, where Qatar was temporary stop on the way to NATO’s revival. Latest development in the matter is that US army General Raymond Thomas, head of the Special Operations Command, has confirmed that Washington has decided to abandon a CIA scheme to equip and train certain rebel groups fighting the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad. He insisted the policy shift had nothing to do with improving relations with Russia. This is in contrast with Trump’s media and political trial regarding alleged Russian involvement in American Presidential elections whereas Clinton’s record is ignored. Is a Judicial trial under way?

‘Arab NATO’ summit consolidated Trump’s position as a decisive leader. Arab NATO and Pro-Israeli NATO joined hands against terrorism. In the garb of anti-terrorism campaign, the target is Iran. The matter is not complex. Raheel Sharif was offered the position of commander/adviser despite the fact that Pakistan snubbed Saudi request for military assistance in Yemen War. This is in contrast to how Pakistan has successfully and ‘secretly’ helped Iraqis in war against Terrorism. An unprecedented level of arrangement is the meeting of Saudi-Iraqi Chief’s of Staff through Pakistani brokerage, despite the existence of Iranian factor. This demolishes any question related to Pakistani being complacent to one party over another in the feud amongst Muslim countries.

A new situation has developed for Iran and Pakistan regarding relations with US, who has blacklisted more Iranian individuals and firms whilst adopting a strict stance for the first time since US-Iranian nuclear was finalized. Similarly, American congress has blocked aid to Pakistan. US Defense Department has withheld $50 million amount in Pakistan military payments/imbursements after Pentagon chief Jim Mattis stated Islamabad is not doing enough to counter the Taliban-affiliated Haqqani network. This is a peculiar situation that has to be connected through dots and the finality of the end game is revealed: From ‘uncontrolled’ sectarian warfare to ‘controlled’ power struggle.

Saudi Arab endeavours to be the undisputed leader of Sunni Muslim bloc. The ambition of young Saudi crown prince is to preserve the ‘Militaristic Status Quo.’ Pakistan, in its essence, abhors militarism. Muslim politicians fought democratic, constitutional and moral struggle to achieve separate homeland for Muslims whereas Militarism captures element of Religion and Nationalism. For e.g., those who criticize Malala in the name of religion and nationalism forget or deliberately ignore when Sufi Muhammad ( Father in law of Mullah Fazalullah ) and EhsanUllah Ehsan roam, freely. It is a question on our internal and foreign policy. Such conduct is deplorable and shameful, as it amounts to oppression. The accountability of civil representatives like Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan should be appreciated. It is first step towards the accountability of real ‘Godfathers’ and ‘Sicilian mafia’ i.e. Holy cows. It is basis of Imam Hosein’s moral struggle: ‘Amar Bil Maruf Wa Anhil Munkir’ (Enjoin goodness and abstain from evil). For AmarAllah will prevail in all matters (historical, geo-strategic/economic, political, diplomatic, social paradigms) and on local, national, regional and global level; when it comes to Ayaam-Illah.

On May 20, Arab NATO was announced in symbolic manner. Reality struck when Saudi-led GCC Nations acted oppressively against Qatar. This is a part of long term plan and here we start connecting the dots: Qatar was aided, backed, supported and helped by Shia Iran and Sunni Turkey. This step was defining in terms of averting Shia-Sunni religious war in House of Islam. This stage is part of ‘Iraq Plan,’ which was chalked and marked by Sino-Russian led Eurasian bloc in order to stop Pro-Israeli NATO in its track to let ‘unchecked’ Saudi Arab establish itself as undisputed leader of Sunni Muslim bloc. Meanwhile, Pakistan successfully played role of mediator in Russian-Turkish rapprochement. Pakistani brokerage meant that Shia-Sunni religious civil war (which ultimately aimed at instability and destruction of Pakistan) was averted and de-escalated to ‘controlled’ power struggle. The basis of initials to ‘Iraq Plan’ were laid when Russia intervened in Syria in order to restore Syrian territorial integrity and strengthen Bashar’s regime. This resulted in Erdogan taking courageous step in standing up to the oppressors, through abandoning the Turkish role of front firepower of pro-Israeli NATO. The risk is evident in how failed coup attempt took place where allegedly Americans supported the Gulenist network. The motive behind coup was to punish Erdogan, as he refused to attack Syria. The whole Saudi-American-Israeli plan is to remove the obstacle i.e. ‘Syria.’ Under the umbrella of Iraq Plan in the aftermath post-failed coup attempt, Russia extensively involved in Syria and Turkey engaged in Northern parts of Iraq and Syria. There exists connection between Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran and Turkey in SyRaq corridor, which will later be explained in detail through ‘Iraq Plan.’

Vicimisation of Iran is only an excuse as the ‘Arab-NATO’ summit has not particularly aimed to attack Iran, directly. The purpose was to establish Saudi Arab as the undisputed leader of Sunni Muslim bloc. Qatar was backed by Russia and China as front state in reversing the ‘uncontrolled sectarian warfare’ to ‘controlled power struggle,’ which signifies that ‘Iraq Plan’ is in motion. Khawaja Asif, Pakistani Defense Minister, met Iraqi envoy twice in less than a year. The span between the two meetings is the measure of clearance of Northern Iraq from ISIS. Iraqi envoy stated that the Pakistanis ‘secretly’ helped Iraq in this matter. This is evident in the fact that after Russia intervened in Syria, there was Chinese presence. China, initially and originally, announced to intervene in Iraq. However, at last moment, China ‘suggested’ to intervened in Syria. This is clear indication of secret ‘Sino-Russian’ involvement in Syraq corridor, which was Pakistani-led and Turkish-sponsored – in the ambit of ‘Iraq Plan.’ The level one of Iraq Plan was attached to countering sectarian confrontation between Saudi’s and Iranians, which other wise would’ve resulted in Sunni-Shia religious civil war in Islam. In case of sectarian warfare, the first deep impact was considered to Greater Middle East (AfPak). A path was carved out through Iraq Plan with the active participation of Pakistan, Turkey, Russia and China. Qatari FM visited Pakistan and this resulted in Qatar’s acceptance to modify its ‘anti-terrorism’ laws, as per understanding through Saudis and Qataris – through Pakistani mediation. In particular, a response to ‘andruni aur beyruni saazishein’ came through Pakistani civil government throwing its weight behind the Pakistan Army and Supreme court of Pakistan.

Panama issue was handled through Judiciary. Matter goes beyond the Panama papers case. Raheel Sharif went to Saudi Arab without Parliamentary or Senate approval. The Panama Papers are an excuse to work and gain time as the Syraq and Afpak equation derives similarity in ‘not-so-distant’ future of Greater Middle East (hint: border situation in Quetta). The assumption that Army and Judiciary elements are involved in saazishein is foolish. In fact, it is the civil government which has provided space through Judicial matters for Army to continue uninterruptedly with Iraq Plan. Why else does PM cling to seat and not resign despite such pressure? Andruni saazishein is way too obvious for common man to note through how JIT summoned Rehman Malik on the very same day when Babar Awan joined PTI. Coincidence and meaningless comparison? Seems not when it was Aitezaz Ahsan, who fought BB’s case but declined to take Zardari’s corruption cases. It was Babar Awan, who took the mantle and like Rehman Malik, established connections with elements of ‘state within state.’ The matter is self-explanatory and more details can be extracted. Despite the upcoming Senate elections, it is understood that PP has distinct role in the Panama Case being heard in Supreme court ( a matter which caught speed with Senator Sherry Rehman’s appearance) and uniquely allowed question on Raheel Sharif’s nomination to be raised in the Senate, during the same week when Americans announced decisive steps like abandoning CIA operations in Syria and taking strict actions against states like Iran and Pakistan. Hint: Haven’t Syrian and Iraqi ‘terrorism’ problem been purged? Where’s the next place where we can witness Russian Iron fist countering American invisible hand? It is time for AfPak – after SyRaq has been locked for Kurdistan independence referendum; which is the most decisive factor in all matters and at all stages of Iraq Plan i.e., where the ‘interlink-play’ mechanism is Pakistan’s role in ‘Stage 1: Averting Saudi-Iranian rivalry developing into Sunni-Shia religious civil war in Islam’ and ‘Stage 2: Taking measures against the encirclement of Russia and China.’ Iqbal had referred to how Syria was a proxy state between two ancient world powers i.e. Byzantines and Persians. He continued in his memoir of ‘stray reflections,’ stating that ‘Future of Afghanistan (as proxy state) is hard to predict.’ In contemporary era, the relation between Syraq and AfPak exists. History proves that Muslim politicians fought moral, constitutional and democratic struggle for Pakistan and such role is needed, again, in order to fight against the ‘militaristic status quo,’ which is being preserved on local, national, regional and global level. As Kurdistan question rages and rises in importance before the Kurdish independence referendum on 25th September (2017), Pakistan has much more decisive and important role to play in AfPak and Syraq equation: Geopolitics can never be separated from Politics, which is domain of civilian representatives in terms of diplomacy. Pakistan was created at hands of politicians and they should play a decisive role.

The element of ‘andruni saazishein’ is not a problem for the government. Rather, it’s the factor of ‘beyruni saazishein.’ Iraq Plan clarifies Pakistan’s central position as part of Sino-Russian led EurAsian camp. Qatari and Pakistani legislation of ‘anti-terrorism’ and ‘election reforms,’ respectively – in order to cater to pressure, are continuation and indication of events in timeline which specifically can be traced back to April 2015 (Saudi aggression against Yemen), September 2015 (Russian intervention in Syria) till the strategically calculated geo-political events in 2016. The ‘throes of birth,’ undoubtedly were represented through the events of Arab Spring. If Army and Judiciary are standing with the Civil Government despite the sword of Article 62, 63 hanging; how can Nawaz Sharif’s six hour stop at Moscow be overlooked as soon as Panama papers had surfaced? Who can deny the level of risk, which is present for Sharif in the Panama case but he refuses to leave without a fight? This matter will be revealed the more Civil Government struggles in its attempt to preserve ‘popular sovereignty.’ Hence, under Iraq plan, several countries are collaborating, coordinating and cooperating against the ‘war mongering and war-madness’ of Pro-Israeli NATO, which is visible in Modi’s unprecedented visit to Israel. India and Israel are two largest sponsors of state terrorism. India knows that Pakistan has attained a special place in league with EurAsian countries. Indian PM Modi has travelled to UK, France, Germany, USA and Israel in the past few weeks. Question arises whether Modi’s India will abandon its status of ‘largest democracy’ and support Israel in its transition from regional to global military dictatorship. It won’t be a Godless but a Religious ‘ruling state’ – on the lines of Hindutva India. This is where the attack on Pakistan is launched in terms of militarism through the choking of its political capabilities and capacities – to not only deny Russian and Chinese assistance but cripple chances of Pakistan’s diplomatic survival. The militarism has to be exposed through the ‘militaristic status quo’ imposed in the name of religion and nationalism in occupied territories and amongst their own people. ‘Popular sovereignty’ cannot be allowed to be captured by militarism. The people of Pakistan have been oppressed through elite which has kept the country poor while they stash riches, abroad. Spiritual democracy allows Moral struggle without self-created moral superiority due its nature of accountability through ‘Awaam, Insaaf aur Allah ki adaalat.’

Pakistan was achieved through a politicaly-defined moral, democratic and constitutional struggle. This is a part and result of Islamic eschatological position on Ghazwa E Hind which only derives its legitimacy from Imam Hosein’s moral struggle: ‘Amar Bil Maruf Wa Anhil Munkir.’ Hence; it is linked to the prevalence of (evolutionary) Ijtihaad through declaration of ‘Moral Law is the Highest Law’ during the pre/ post independence eras of Pakistan. The matter is similar to Kurdistan question. Kurdish politicians, wrongly and oppressively, are seeking anything and everything from the ‘western’ camp. With the aversion of Sunni-Shia religious civil war during stage 1, the Iraq Plan has automatically geared up for Stage 2 i.e., Russia and China. There exists the plan of Pro-Israeli NATO to return to SyRaq on decisive basis after the symbolic exit of USA, which occurred after the announcement of severing CIA funded campaigns which supported non-state actors in Syria; which is why Syria and Lebanon have launched anti-terror offensives in coordination with Hezbollah – for final offensives. The whole game plan can be detected through visit of Islamic eschatological position (Byzantines and Turks amass armies in Damascus; ‘NATO’ like force will land forces in Aamaq or Daabiq; Ghouta will be headquarters – as mentioned in various Islamic traditions) while attributing with geopolitical situation in SyRaq-AfPak. The end game is that the Saudi-led GCC nations i.e. Arab ‘NATO’ and Pro-Israeli NATO will land forces in Northern Syria - soon. Western countries have reached deal on Southern Syria.

Iraq Plan stands test of all times. Pro-Israeli NATO seeks to humiliate Russia and China but both countries will never bend to the oppressor. The timing of return of Arab NATO and Pro-Israeli NATO intervention in order to land forces in Northern Syria can be simultaneous to Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum, which is being opposed by Turkey, Syria, Iran and a few other countries. However, Canada has already announced to send troops for Kurdistan and other western countries are actively vying and massively contributing to fulfill the aim of Kurdistan independence; with the assurance to provide any form of assistance. Moreover, Indians are being invited to provide aid for Kurdish independence. Why Indians are being invited? Indian Minister for External Affairs, V.K. Singh, seeks to deal with Kurdish leaders on matters of ISIS. This is after Stage 1 of Iraq Plan is complete, which saw defeat of Pro-Israeli NATO in their failed attempt to ignite Saudi-Iranian rivalry in order to attain new level through Shia-Sunni religious civil war in Islam. It aimed to set base and provide assurances (to allies of the west) for Stage 2 through lens of game-plan to return to Syraq and engage in AfPak in order to counter Russia and China for the security and establishment of Israel as regional and in time –global military dictatorship. The reason of western and Arab NATO intervention in Syria would evolve after Syrian Kurds – backed by new Kurdistan state, which’ll gain independence through Iraq - rise against Assad’s regime.

Iran (who has a role in more active role in Stage 2 than stage 1) has announced to raise contingents to counter such situation after Kurdistan gains independence. In defiance to Pro-Israeli NATO due to deteriorating relations with America, the Turkish authorities have revealed secret locations of US, French troops in Syria. The level of oppression is such that Kurdistan question can lead to the downfall of Arab/Middle Eastern states like Egypt, Syria and Jordan. After sidelining Qatar and forcing Qatari regime to soften its pro-Iranian stance, Saudi Arab will announce its role as undisputed leader of Sunni Muslim bloc. Despite the Pro-Israeli NATO’s plan to attack Northern Syria during inevitable stage 2 of Iraq Plan, meaningful is the meeting of Saudi-Iraqi military commanders; which speaks volumes about the success of Iraq Plan for Sino-Russian camp in stage 1. All evidences and signs provide confirmation that we, as people, are entering a conclusive phase in order to be gathered in one place i.e. Kurdistan question. Those who spread corruption (fitnah o fasaad) are not those who are under the yoke of Panama be it in ‘Awaam, Insaaf ya Allah ki adaalat.’ Pakistani politicians have the responsibility to involve all stakeholders in the Iraq Plan. The matter of Panama case has become part of Iraq Plan. Symbolically, It is beyond the situation handling personal money where no financial corruption through public exchequer has been proved but has become battle ground between opposing forces on different levels and stages. Pakistan’s problem is not governance – rather, it is political. The effects of Panama papers have been captured by the Civil Government through Iraq Plan; where Pakistan successfully passed the anti-settlement resolutions against Israel. The timing is interesting: April 2016. Through journalistic approach, question arises how else does the ‘beyruni saazish’ reveal heinous role?

My recent articles, ‘Vantage point of Kurdish millennium quest’ (http://nation.com.pk/blogs/29-Oct-2016/vantage-point-of-the-kurdish-millennium-quest) and ‘Iraq Plan: Abandoning strategic depth for Pakistan’s unprecedented global role’ (http://nation.com.pk/blogs/17-Nov-2016/iraq-plan-abandoning-strategic-depth-for-Pakistan-s-unprecedented-global-role) provide an in-depth analysis regarding Stage 1 (Iran included with Pakistan and Turkey in Sino-Russian camp) and how stage 2 of Iraq Plan can unfold and how can it be encountered in best possible manner. CPEC united the Civ-Mil Government of Pakistan. They need something to propel. Chinese-led economic bloc in league with Russian-led diplomatic offensive is where Sino-Russian led EurAsian camp has placed its cards. After garnering Chinese declaration of support, the Russian declaration of support to Pakistan will force Pro-Israeli NATO to stop in its warmongering tricks and tracks. Pakistan should invite Putin before the Kurdish Independence referendum, which would possibly be held on 25th September, 2017. It would re-assert the Sino-Russian led Eurasian position in Syraq and AfPak. Moral Law is the highest law as per Imam Hosein’s moral struggle: Russia and China will oppose the oppressor i.e. Iraq Plan is the response during the transition of Israel from regional to global military dictatorship. Secular, democratic and progressively Islamic Kurds can be gained as allies if the campaign is launched to expose Israel as Regional and (soon-to-be) Global Military dictatorship. The principle exists: Moral Law is the Highest Law when it comes to opposing the oppressor.

Stages of Iraq Plan

Iraq plan has two stages and fronts. First stage is to deal with Pro-Israeli NATO's attempt to spiral the Saudi-Iranian proxy war into Sunni-Shia Religious Civil War whose ultimate aim is destruction of Pakistan. Afterwards, they intend to proceed to wage war against Russia and China. However, Iraq plan is well under execution and, both, the Pakistani Civil Government and Pakistan Army are united on CPEC factor which warrants continued collaboration, cooperation and coordination. It has potential not only to stop Pro-Israeli NATO in its track to ignite spark of Sunni-Shia Religious Civil war but thwart attempt to isolate Russia and China. Basically, Pakistani-led and Turkish sponsored 'Sino-Russian' presence in Iraq is being faciliated in favour of EurAsian bloc. And there many economic and diplomatic interests attached to it.

The two stages and two fronts are: (i) Muslim world and its allies (ii) Russia and China and its allies. Pakistani Civil - Military Leadership is united despite the differences. That is due to Chinese led Economic bloc. Russia and China propel each other. The next stage is Russian led diplomatic offensive. That brings whole lot of opportunities and potentials. Now, doesn't India become the odd-one out in Asia?

Waqas Mahmood Ali is an International Strategy Analyst and Political commentator. Waqas is a former member of staff at 'The Nation' newspaper. He is 'Phd Candidate' at Strategic Studies Department at Air University. He is associated with Newspapers, Radio and, Policy, Political and Media think tanks. He can be reached on twitter at @WaqasMahmoodAli

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