The 7th October attack has marked a watershed moment in the recent history of Israel-Palestine relations and plays an instrumental role in shaping the politics and societal trends of the Middle East. In one of my previous articles in this newspaper, I explored fundamental reasons for Hamas’ involvement in the 7th October attack that revolved around shattering Abraham Accords 2.0. Many American international experts viewed at that moment, before the 7th October attacks, the possibility of normalization of KSA and Israel, which could generate ripple effects beyond the Middle East for further normalization of Israel and other Muslim countries. Upon that consideration, American national security advisor Jake Sullivan wrote that the Middle East was calm and at peace in Foreign Affairs Magazine a few days before Hamas strike on Israel.
However, after seven months of conflict, the above narrative of the 7th October attacks is challenged by many intelligence reports and experts. Now, many experts view that the Israel Prime Intelligence Agency already knew the possibility of the 7th October attacks by Hamas as the latter prepared for one year for such an attack. Questions were raised about how could Mossad be ignorant of such preparation of Hamas as Mossad has deep penetration into the West Bank, Gaza, and the Middle East and is guided with unprecedented powers for the safety and security of Israel.
Therefore, the story goes on that Israel deliberately allowed to 7th October attack to launch of massive scale war-type scenario against the innocent people of Palestine, especially inhabitants of Gaza. At that moment, the plan of Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu was clear to carry out a genocidal campaign against the people of Gaza in the hindsight of slaughtering Hamas from Gaza.
But again, the question raised that why Israel is deeply interested in decimating the people of Palestine. The answer is both simple and complex. On the simpler side, Israel wants more territory to incorporate its territorial goals. On the Complex side, anybody who has little knowledge of Israel knows that Israel is a deep apartheid state and repressive state and over some time its so-called democratic credentials are eroded. Therefore, Israel can’t even afford a single democratic Israeli state for Jewish and Muslim populations due to the proximity of population parity in greater Israel, which includes Gaza and the West Bank.
On the question of a two-state solution, Israeli current political and military leadership already killed that solution long ago. Despite American pressure for a two-state solution, Israel detracted from the idea of the independent and contiguous state of Palestine. Upon that ground-based realities, as per recent intelligence reports of the CIA, Israel wanted a trigger point for launching a massive slaughter against Palestinians to reduce parity of the Muslim population in greater Israel, and the 7th October attack by Hamas provided a perfect opportunity for Israel for carrying out its genocidal campaign against Palestinians.
However, over the trajectory of the seven-month conflict, I analyzed that the nefarious plans of Israel are completely backfired at the moment. and when the dust settled, the biggest losers of this conflict would be Israel and the USA. There are multiple reasons behind such an analysis, so let’s discuss all of them. First, Israel has witnessed negative public opinion in the Western world, especially in the USA, after the 7th October attacks. This is quite remarkable that many polls suggested that public opinion in the USA about Israel turns negative up to 60-70pc of American educated youth. This also coupled with a series of protests erupted in favor of Palestinian self-determination across the USA, UK, Germany, France Spain etc. Many students drew a series of protests in their universities to show sympathy for the Palestine cause. This put these Western governments on backstep for supporting unconditionally atrocities of Israel. Furthermore, as conflict has dragged many Western countries withdrew their political, economic, diplomatic, and military support of Israel on the pretext of massive public pressure and opinion against Israel.
Second, the ongoing conflict also exposed the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of the Israeli Defense strategy, which is often claimed as unbreakable. First, this was breached by Hamas on the 7th October attacks, then later on various Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and Houthis gave tough time to Israeli defense capabilities. As per American military experts, Israel has been unable to neutralize any of the anti-Israeli proxies in the Middle East. Lastly, on 13th April 2024, Iran directly attacked Israel from Iranian soil, breaking the myth of Israeli deterrence capabilities. As per American Scholar John Mearsheimer, the post-7th October events shattered the invincibility of Israeli deterrence and defense.
Third, despite the massive loss of lives in Palestine, which counted for 35000-40000 people, and the loss of homes, schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure, Palestine’s spirit remained resolute, determined, and non-violent. The tragedy of the 7th October attacks showed the resilience and love of Palestine for their homeland and Palestinians vowed to fight against the oppression of Israel till the last breath.
Fourth, Israel has also lost the goodwill of Abraham Accords 1.0 and there is no possibility of further normalization of Israel and the Arab World shortly due to strong street resistance against Israeli atrocities in the recent conflict. As per the late Henry Kissinger, Israel has lost the opportunity of recognition before the Muslim World due to the massive slaughtering of innocent people of Palestine.
Fifth, on the diplomatic and legal front, Israel has also been losing ground. For Example, in the recent hearing of ICJ, the court was in favor of issuing an arrest warrant for the Israeli PM, and in the previous ICJ hearing, the court cautioned about the intentions of Palestine’s genocide by Israel. On the diplomatic front, it is quite remarkable that both Russia and China stood for Palestine’s self-determination and ceasefire of conflict. These measures raised the stature of both Russia and China before Global South, which stands with Palestine.
One can say that the true intentions of Israel are completely backfired. The issue of Palestine cause is alive and limelight of the Global South and Global North. Owing to global opinion in favor of Palestine, the genocidal campaign of Israel must be stopped in near time and Israeli political and military leadership would be accountable before Palestinians and the international community shortly.
Sher Ali Bukhari
The writer is a UET alumni with keen interest in Pakistan’s foreign policy.
