Today, the question of whether global climate change is happening or not has been transformed into how expeditious will its manifestation and their impacts be. In Pakistan, climate change has been making immense visibility in the form of variations in temperature and precipitation patterns, rise in sea-levels and higher intensity and frequency of climate-induced hazards.

According to estimates, Pakistan has suffered from over 150 disasters of monumental scale in the form of floods, cyclones, droughts, among others over a period of 20 years. To make matters worse, future predictions estimate Pakistan’s temperature rise to be higher than the global average. Similarly, the ICRC AR5 approximates the mean sea-level rise in South Asia to be higher than the global average. The rapid climatic changes are expected to accelerate food insecurity to dangerous levels in vulnerable states, and Pakistan is no exception to this.

To ensure stable food availability, aggregate demand is expected to keep pace with food production. However, climatic changes have been causing certain features involved in crop growth such as soil moisture and temperature to exceed the normal thresholds. The rise in average temperatures has been shortening the length of the crop growth cycles, thus forcing their early maturity. In addition, the threat of locusts has been classified as an outcome of changing climatic conditions.

These factors, coupled with the reduction in water availability have been contributing to shortfalls in crop production. As for future challenges, crop-growth simulation studies estimate that the reduction in water availability coupled with the increase in temperature will cause agricultural productivity to drop by 8-10 percent by the year 2040 in Pakistan. Further, a 6 percent decrease in wheat yield and a 15-18 percent decrease in fine-grain basmati rice is anticipated by 2080.

For the northern mountains, however, wheat yield is predicted to rise, yet the total rate change is estimated to be negative given the region’s lesser share in the crop’s national production. These forecasts will begin to manifest during the present decade.

Moreover, the livestock sector contributes 56 percent to the agricultural sector’s output and is adversely affected by temperature extremes given that excess by affecting the thermal comfort zones of livestock causes interference in their growth, feed intake, and reproduction. Climatic changes also adversely affect fodder production. In addition, the reduction in the range of Indus Delta in the approaching years is projected to have substantial ramifications on sea-food supply.

In Pakistan, however, food inaccessibility encompassing food unaffordability, physical inaccessibility to markets and allocative inefficiencies is deemed a threat of higher magnitude. As for food affordability, unanticipated reductions in food production attributable to climate extremes will continue to disturb the market prices and push the economically vulnerable households below the poverty line. Research suggests that an 8-percentage point rise in poverty is triggered by an escalation of food prices by 20 percent.

Similarly, extreme weather events deteriorate the incomes of households with small-scale fishery- and agriculture-based livelihoods, or cause injuries or fatalities of the bread-winners, thus plummeting the purchasing capacity at the household level. This holds especially true for Pakistan, where 42 percent of the population derives income from the climate-sensitive agricultural sector.

In terms of allocative inefficiencies, disasters impede the ability of governments to proficiently allocate food through markets. Estimates suggest households in Pakistan to be reliant on markets for 79 percent of cereals, 92 percent of vegetables and 70 percent of meat-consumption which suggests that disasters can have a substantial bearing on future food security through the channel of allocation.

From a public health perspective, an inability to absorb and utilise food is also a major facet of food insecurity and is affected by calorie unavailability and jeopardised consumption. In respect to this, climate change declines food availability required to fulfil nutritional requirements or affects the household’s purchasing capacity of food items vital for a balanced diet.

Moreover, the onset of certain diseases consequential of climate change may affect an individual’s physiological capacity to absorb balanced nutrients. The enormity of the future challenge can be assessed from the fact that climate change is projected to intensify the rate of severe stunting to 62 percent by 2050 in South Asia.

Given these projected disruptions in access, availability and utilisation of food, Pakistan is likely to face a major crisis of long-term food instability.

To address the existing and impending food insecurity challenges consequent to climate change, the FAO under the general oversight of the MoCC has embarked upon a project on “Transforming the Indus Basin with Climate Resilient Agriculture and Water management in Pakistan” in vulnerable districts of Sindh and Punjab for six years. Other recent initiatives include the Clean Green Pakistan Index targeting hygiene, water, sanitation, plantation, and solid waste management; initiating 30 new dams or recharge projects; lining and improving minors and small canals to save water losses; formulating the “National Flood Protection Plan”, among other schemes.

These policies cater to elements of food unavailability, food unaffordability, and nutritional insecurity. Further, schemes that may also cater to the latter include the “Multi-Sectoral National Nutrition Action Plan” or the “Sehat Sahulat Programme”, to name a few.

Besides adaptation and development initiatives, Pakistan’s contributions to mitigation efforts cannot be underplayed. However, the success of these endeavours is contingent on the concerted effort of the global GHG emitters. Contextually, it is noteworthy to highlight that while Pakistan has already achieved SDG-13, particularly attributable to the fulfilment of mitigation targets, the largest emitters including China, the US, and the European Union remain in the queue.

In order to enhance its climate change response, Pakistan needs to capitalise on the aforementioned accomplishment to mobilise resources from the international community. Any augmented investment needs to be accompanied by a substantial parametric shift from capital-intensive mega projects to smaller high value-added projects which would subsequently ensure higher returns.

For instance, the mega-projects such as dams do not produce water and the reservoirs may remain empty during periods of extended droughts. Alternatively, the practices of water conservation including high efficiency micro-irrigation systems are more durable substitutes.

The parametric shift already visible in FAO schemes needs to be increasingly endorsed. This, however, needs complementation by enabling measures including but not limited to the establishment of functional markets and improvement of legal and regulatory measures facilitating equitable diffusion of relevant technologies and credits and the introduction of agricultural insurance schemes. Further, to ensure long-term food availability, supply-side adaptation needs to be supplemented by outreach strategies aimed at encouraging demand-side adaptation such as the adoption of sustainable diets which perhaps is the most challenging, yet highly important factor.

Zahra Niazi
The writer is a freelance columnist.