Finally, Pakistan decided to call a spade a spade. Messages sent to the ‘unrecognized’ interim government in Kabul through diplomatic channels; offering amnesty to all ‘concerned’; blocking trade routes; or sending the undocumented Afghans back home would not help in making the Taliban understand their responsibilities towards the export of terrorism to Pakistan. In his recent Congressional hearing, Assistant Secretary of State Donald Lu, inter alia, confirmed that the ‘current greatest terrorist threat to Pakistan emanated from Afghanistan.’
In addition, Afghanistan was time and again reminded of Pakistan’s decades-old support to the Afghan cause but to no avail. Nothing seemed to have been working as the death toll in Pakistan kept on increasing. Even the ‘unconfirmed’ attack inside its territory last year would not help Kabul understand the gravity of the matter. Perhaps, the recent shahadat of seven soldiers in North Waziristan proved to be the tipping point to convey an unequivocal message - stop patronizing TTP, a globally designated terrorist organization, and using them as a proxy against Pakistan. Enough is enough.
Hence, Pakistan had no hesitation in officially confirming that its military carried out intelligence-based aerial strikes inside Afghanistan. The stated objective? To punish all those terrorists responsible for killing hundreds of civilians and security forces in cross-border raids.
The absence of any offensive response except from Kabul and a straightforward acquiescence thereof by the United States provided a kind of validity to the aerial strikes. In any case, in a world where firing of missiles inside each other’s territories or killing ‘terrorists’ through covert operations abroad or for that matter staying in a country for two-decades to combatting terrorism and extremism is considered legitimate- Pakistan’s recent aerial strikes must not be taken as an outrightly outrageous overture. The Gaza genocide, the Russian Special Operation in Ukraine and the UN Security Council’s helplessness further provides a raison d’être for safeguarding your national interest by yourself. The existence of proxies and the emergence of hybrid warfare are other factors compelling nation states to do in Rome as the Romans do. In this way, sending messages through aerial strikes should not be construed as violation of someone’s territorial integrity. As such actions do not tantamount to waging an all-out war anymore, the international community would like to simply look the other way.
Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid’s warning that ‘such incidents can have very bad consequences, which will be out of Pakistan’s control’ speaks volumes about the Afghan mindset. Remember, the Afghans are good fighters and war is in their DNA. With an uneasy eastern border, Pakistan would not wish to prolong tension on its western borders particularly in view of its recent experience with Iran. Therefore, the Defense Minister’s statement that Pakistan would not want war with Afghanistan was timely. On the other hand, Kabul could ill afford to turn its erstwhile friendly neighbor into a sworn enemy.
History of diplomacy tells us that in the face of strained and uneasy bilateral relations, better sense could still prevail. Following points need consideration if the two neighbors ever desired to practice peaceful coexistence – to sort out issues and not each other - and for them to concentrate on their individual progress:
One: To move forward, one must forget the past. One can go on and on in justifying the past or cribbing about it, but the fact remains – one cannot change the past. Let us come to terms with the ground realities. Furthermore, placing past records in front of each other to prove a point or two would not help. Similarly, recalling good or bad deeds of each other does not make any sense particularly after experiencing hard core aerial strikes.
Two: To forestall any future strikes, Afghanistan must realize that TTP’s nefarious activities have gone out of control. By harboring globally recognized terrorists, Kabul becomes an accomplice in criminal activities. It must understand that an accomplice is equally responsible for any untoward incidence. By encouraging rogue elements, Kabul would automatically be asking for trouble. Otherwise also, killing of innocent Pakistanis would not help Afghanistan in receiving recognition for its government. Nor would it assist in increasing the country’s GDP.
Three: Pakistan must treat Afghanistan as an independent country. Leave the rulers of Kabul to their own devices. On the other hand, the policy of choking the trade corridors or sending back undocumented individuals needs to be revisited and honed. Resumption of repatriation process after Ramzan will help - only after calculating Kabul’s response. It is highly unlikely that Kabul would budge and do the needful regarding TTP’s activities.
Four: War begins when diplomacy fails. Nevertheless, even during wars, diplomacy could play a constructive role. Employing diplomatic ways and means to forestall a tense predicament must not be ruled out. A word of caution. It is not Iran or a Scandinavian country that Pakistan is dealing with. It is Afghanistan. Hence, ‘improvised’ and ‘secured’ diplomacy is advisable. Even after having a series of failed peace negotiations, there is no harm in initiating fresh parleys. Besides involving the adjacent Central Asian States, the Chinese wisdom might also prove beneficial.
Five: Removing the remaining misgivings of our American friends, in the real sense of the word, will greatly benefit Islamabad in not only improving economic, trade and military bilateral relations but also to jointly curb the menace of terrorism. In this regard, to the extent possible, Washington’s ‘suspicion’ over Pak-Afghan relations and its concerns over the Afghan repatriation project need to be addressed.
As regards TTP - the outfit tried to emulate the Taliban in its pursuit of having ‘control’. However, after getting a reality check, the group has realized that ‘an Afghan Taliban-style victory in Pakistan is currently an unrealistic goal’. Therefore, its reprehensible activities are not likely to go beyond a certain point. There is an urgent need to redouble efforts in taking ‘appropriate’ measures to avoid a repeat of the North Waziristan incident. No one can predict a terrorist attack. However, accurate and timely intel could help in combating terrorism. Fresh strategy needs to be devised as reportedly, after going through a series of mergers (Dalgey) and improving upon its operational skills, TTP has developed a ‘localized strategy’. Relying purely on Afghanistan’s presumed assistance in countering a continued existential threat is, therefore, not enough - particularly in view of Kabul’s reluctance in doing so. Diplomatic pursuits notwithstanding, ‘localized’ contingency plan must be in place to counter the TTP’s ‘localized’ strategy.
Najm us Saqib
The writer is a former Ambassador of Pakistan and author of eight books in three languages. He can be reached at najmussaqib1
960@msn.com