Recently, there has been widespread speculation about a possible Iran-Israel war. Various international pundits predict a looming conflict, but the reality and interests of the involved parties (the US, Iran, and Israel) do not align with these predictions. US policymakers are aware that any misadventure in the Middle East could disrupt the global order and financial systems, for which the US is both a guarantor and beneficiary. Additionally, China has become the real threat to the US’s long-term interests. Involvement in the Middle East would divert US attention away from its China containment policy. If the US is not inclined to open a Middle Eastern war front, Israel is unlikely to consider it either, as US support is crucial for sustaining any conflict.

Similarly, Iran’s fragile economy and its relatively weaker military compared to the combined forces of the US and Israel do not allow it to take any misstep that could provoke an attack on its nuclear infrastructure. However, Iran may consider limited, calculated military options to appease its public.

BILAL LATIF,

Islamabad.