North Atlantic Treaty Organization celebrated its seventy-fifth anniversary during its summit in Washington DC 2024. The NATO Alliance of 32 states, including the most powerful state USA, has pledged to support Ukraine against Russian aggression in the form of an announcement of a $50bn military aid package to Kyiv. Notably, NATO has also made a clear indication of a pivot to the Indo-Pacific where China has been a rising power, especially in terms of economic and military might. Invitations from Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea are marked by shifting focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region of NATO, signaling that China will become the next chief target of NATO once it finishes it job in the Ukraine War.
NATO is the brainchild of the Cold War whose primary reasonability was at that time to deter Soviet Union aggression in Western Europe. Under the premises of containment of the Soviet Union, the Truman administration formed a military alliance of NATO on 4 April 1949, which had only 12 members. The most remarkable part of NATO is Article 5 which calls for the collective and mutual defense of the country in the case of aggression, in simpler meaning: an attack on one country is considered an attack on all countries. This made NATO a defensive military alliance. In retaliation of NATO, the Soviet Union formed its military alliance along with eastern European countries in the name of the “Warsaw Pact” on May 14 1955. During the Cold War, there was a clear possibility of a NATO VS WARSAW hot war, however, crisis management and leadership qualities at both ends saved the world from that doomsday scenario.
Events of 1989 and the subsequent dissolution of the Soviet Union into 15 republics in 1991 made the Warsaw Pact ineffective and invalid, and finally, it formally dissolved on 1 July 1991. This marked the ultimate victory of NATO, making it a unique military alliance. It is worth noting that due to the security guarantee of NATO, Europe has been able to focus on the economic and infrastructural side. This eventually led to taking European security policy into American hands, where the USA has a big say in European security affairs.
During that time, a major debate was also discussed where one side argued that NATO should have disbanded and dissolved because of the non-existence of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. However, other major and leading voices opined that NATO should be there and even expanded its membership and operations. Eventually, the second view dominated and NATO remained in operation. During the dissolution of Yugoslavia, NATO played an instrumental role in the bombardment of various points in Serbia and Kosovo in the late 1990s.
In addition to that, in 1997, NATO expanded Czechia, Hungary and Poland into NATO membership, marking three countries of the former Warsaw Pact into NATO. Notably, the Baltic States and erstwhile states of the Soviet Union added to the NATO alliance in 2004.
This sparked fear and chaos in Russia, especially when President Putin came to Moscow. Moscow viewed the eastward expansion of NATO posed a direct and existential threat to its motherland Russia as military operations of NATO near Russian borders. Many experts like Henry Kissinger, George F. Kennan, and John Mearsheimer viewed that the USA Should not expand eastwards while it served no purpose to American interests. Nevertheless, Moscow argued that the USA made an official commitment towards the non-expansion of NATO near Russian borders. On the other hand, American officials denied such a commitment of “not inch of eastwards of NATO “and said that NATO served only a defensive purpose.
NATO expansion eastwards is the perfect recipe for the Russian attack on Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2022) where Russia has violated the territorial sovereignty of these states due to fears of security concerns of Russia. Since Feb 2022, Western countries, including NATO, have been militarily, politically, diplomatically and legally supportive of Ukraine against Russian aggression and war. Meanwhile USA along with allies used every form including UNGA and UNSC to target Russian actions in Ukraine. However, the growing concern of Western countries is the neutral and non-aligned behaviour of many Asian and African countries at UNGA and UNSC when they had decided to abstain from such resolutions condemning the Russian war. Many of them also shy away from economic sanctions and trade restrictions against Russia.
NATO has also added two new members to its alliance- Sweden and Finland, which were traditionally non-aligned European states. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine made them into a NATO alliance, and now NATO has a membership of 32 states. Many NATO states have raised 2pc of GDP expenditure on their defense.
Apart from NATO engagement in the European Continent, many official documents of the USA and eminent experts opined that China has become the prime concern of American interests and poses a direct threat to American domination of the world order. The unprecedented economic and military might of China forced the USA to shift its attention towards the Indo-Pacific region. Therefore, many experts argued that the USA should not consume full of its energies towards fighting Russian aggression in Ukraine, rather than laser light focus on addressing the Chinese threat.
Against that backdrop, NATO has rebranded its purpose and invited Indo-Pacific partners to the NATO summit, showing its concerns about the growing threat in the Indo-Pacific region by China. There is the possibility of strong collaboration among NATO, QUAD and AUKUS against China in the Indo-Pacific. The growing danger of NATO in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region against Russia and China made Beijing and Moscow strategic partners against Western domination. Owing to NATO expansion into the Indo-Pacific region, China fully understands the security concerns of NATO near the Russian Border. Therefore, both Beijing and Moscow have become part of a multipolar world- BRICS Plus and SCO- including strong economic dimension and military engagement.
Sher Ali Bukhari
The writer is a UET alumni with keen interest in Pakistan’s foreign policy.
