BUCHAREST  -  Romanians vote on Sunday in the first round of a presidential election amid rampant inflation that could favour far-right leader George Simion. The vote will kick off two weeks of elections in Romania, including a parliamentary vote and a December 8 presidential run-off.  Among the 13 presidential hopefuls, social democrat Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu is polling about 25 percent, followed by AUR party leader Simion on 15-19 percent.

“I’m really afraid we’ll end up with Simion in the second round,” 36-year-old IT worker Oana Diaconu told AFP in Bucharest, expressing concern about the far-right leader’s unpredictable nature and attacks on the European Union.

Simion, 38, is staking a claim in the poor NATO member country as far-right parties across Europe notch up electoral successes. Polling stations open at 7:00 am (0500 GMT) and close at 9:00 pm, with exit polls expected shortly after. According to experts, the stakes are high in the race to replace President Klaus Iohannis, a liberal and staunch Ukraine ally, who has held the largely ceremonial post since 2014. Romania, which borders Ukraine, has gained in importance since Moscow invaded its neighbour in 2022. The Black Sea nation now plays a “vital strategic role” for NATO -- as it is home to more than 5,000 soldiers -- and the transit of Ukrainian grain, the New Strategy Center think tank said in a study. “Romanian democracy is in danger for the first time since the fall of communism in 1989,” political analyst Cristian Pirvulescu told AFP. Following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, “the situation has become more complicated”, he added.  Known for his fiery speeches, Simion -- a Trump fan who sometimes dons a red cap in appreciation of his idol -- hopes to get a boost from his victory. Advocating a “more patriotic Romania”, Simion opposes sending military aid to Ukraine and frequently lashes out against what he calls the “greedy corrupt bubble” in Brussels. Romania has so far only had “minions and cowards as leaders”, he recently said, adding that people “no longer accept to be treated as second-class citizens” in other countries.

Simion has seen his popularity surge by tapping into voter anger over record inflation while promising to deliver affordable housing for all.

In a bid to secure the support of Romania’s large diaspora, he has travelled all over Europe.

Should he reach the second round, analyst Pirvulescu predicts a “contagion effect” that would likely boost his AUR party in the December parliamentary election.

Overall, the campaign has been marked by controversies and personal attacks, with Simion facing accusations of meeting with Russian spies -- a claim he has denied.

Ciolacu, on the other side, has faced a controversy over his use of private jets.

Despite low popularity ratings, he hopes to win over voters with his campaign promise of ensuring “stability” in Romania.

As leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Ciolacu enjoys the backing of Romania’s largest party, which has shaped the country’s politics for more than three decades, and currently governs in a coalition with the National Liberal Party.

Polling in third place is former journalist Elena Lasconi, who became mayor of the small town of Campulung and head of a centre-right opposition party, who could prove to be a surprise package.

“Our best hope might be to wake up with Lasconi in the second round -- she seems to be the most honest candidate,” said IT specialist Diaconu before hopping on a tram in Bucharest.