The election and inauguration of Sri Lanka’s first leftist President, Anura Dissanayake, has marked the beginning of a new chapter in the country’s political landscape. There are many questions surrounding how the nation’s political vision and progress will unfold under his leadership. His role in addressing the country’s economic crisis, debt, unemployment, and foreign relations has become crucial. His leftist stance and past political ideals necessitate deep analysis to determine the direction the country might take under his presidency.

Under Anura Dissanayake’s leadership, the coalition of Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the National People’s Power (NPP) secured a dramatic victory. Rising from a party with only three seats in the 225-member parliament, he now holds the country’s highest office. This election reflected the longstanding frustrations of Sri Lanka’s common people with social and economic discontent.

During his campaign, Dissanayake promised to dismantle Sri Lanka’s established political system and eradicate corruption. He came into power as a representative of the people against the long-standing political families that had ruled the country through dynastic politics and economic power. The people of Sri Lanka were seeking an alternative to the two traditional parties, and they reached out for this new hope under Dissanayake’s leadership. For the first time in Sri Lanka’s electoral history, the presidential election went into a second count. In the first count, Dissanayake secured 42.31% of the vote, while his main opponent, Sajith Premadasa, garnered 32.76%. According to Sri Lanka’s electoral laws, if no candidate achieves 50% of the vote in the first count, a second count is conducted using a preferential ballot system, where voters can rank their top three preferred candidates. Dissanayake emerged victorious in the second count, marking an unprecedented event in the country’s political history.

Sri Lanka’s economy has faced extreme turmoil over the past few years. In 2022, the country defaulted on its debt, foreign reserves were exhausted, and the national debt soared to over $83 billion, with more than half owed to foreign creditors. Inflation surged to nearly 70%, and the economy collapsed. In the wake of this crisis, the people of Sri Lanka expressed their anger, resulting in a popular uprising.

Dissanayake’s biggest challenge will be to overcome this economic disaster. The current government has accepted a $2.9 billion bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with plans to start repaying the debt from 2028. Dissanayake stated during his campaign that he would continue the debt repayment process and renegotiate the country’s economic policies with the IMF. However, there remains uncertainty over how he will handle this burden and lead the country toward economic recovery.

With only three seats in parliament, Dissanayake’s JVP cannot independently govern. One of his first tasks will be to call for a general election. If his party and coalition gain more seats in parliament, he will be able to form a stronger government. Currently, there are 222 members from other parties in parliament, raising questions about how much support the new president will receive. Dissanayake has already declared that he will dissolve the parliament, arguing that the current assembly does not reflect the people’s aspirations. However, if the opposition parties do not cooperate with him, the country’s governance may be disrupted, and Sri Lanka could face renewed political instability. As Sri Lanka’s new president, how Dissanayake manages international relations, especially with India, is a subject of much discussion. Given Sri Lanka’s geographical location and close ties with India, his foreign policy will be crucial. Despite being a leftist, Dissanayake will likely aim to maintain good relations with India. However, considering his past anti-India stance and close ties with China, as a political analyst I do believe that he may pose a challenge for India. During Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2022, India provided immediate assistance, which the new government under Dissanayake must acknowledge. He cannot ignore India while safeguarding Sri Lanka’s interests, as India’s support will be crucial for the country’s economic recovery and stability.

Although China did not offer significant aid during Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, the country has long maintained close ties with Sri Lanka’s leftist leaders. As the new President, Dissanayake’s ability to balance relations between India and China will be critical for the country’s future. Sri Lanka’s strategic location and maritime importance have drawn the attention of both India and China. If Dissanayake leans too much towards China, his relations with India could become strained. Dissanayake’s challenge will be to manage this relationship without alienating India, which remains crucial for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. His policy towards China is likely to emphasize economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and investment, while ensuring Sri Lanka’s strategic interests aren’t compromised in the region.

Following Dissanayake’s election, public expectations have risen significantly. He has pledged to fight corruption and advocate for the marginalized sections of Sri Lankan society. However, there is a stark contrast between the JVP’s previous armed struggles and the current democratic system of governance. The people now wait to see how well he can fulfill his promises and whether he can lead the country out of its economic collapse.

Although this marks a new chapter in Sri Lankan politics, many uncertainties remain. Dissanayake’s role in the country’s economic recovery, debt repayment, and international relations will be of utmost importance. The people of Sri Lanka, along with the international community, are now watching his leadership closely.

M A Hossain
The writer is a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at writetomahossain@gmail.com