As 2024 draws to an end, let us highlight some main events, remembering that there are opportunities too in the New Year 2025. True, in the old year, many issues remained unresolved, such as the Russian war in Ukraine and the Israeli wars in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as several other conflicts, including the large one in Sudan, which has not been given full attention despite millions being affected and forced into displacement within their own country or abroad. Sadly, autocratic rule has become more common in many countries, increasing from about half the world’s nations ten years ago to over two-thirds today. In the West, democracy is also in need of renewal and strengthening. The new ultra-conservative parties, which are gaining support, must improve their respect for democracy and the rights of the poorest. The old, established parties must renew their ways of thinking and behaviour so that there will be less support for the ultra-conservatives. The social democrats and the centrist conservatives have a special duty to find new and popular ways, not just claim that they lack the right communication policies.

A few weeks ago, it was a positive surprise that the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria was overthrown on 8 December 2024. Finally, the quite eccentric leader’s 24-year-long, brutal government ended, along with his father’s 29 years in power before him. Now the difficult transition to a new and more democratic rule lies ahead in a country full of opposing groups and interests. Syria’s fall was also a defeat and setback to Russia’s role in the Middle East and its further operations in Africa. Iran, too, has now experienced a setback. Although Iran is founded on proud civilisations and cultures, its current regime struggles with moving into modern times to create optimism and a sustainable rule for the future. Israel has a similar problem, lacking sustainable policies and solutions for resolving the conflict with Palestine, having sunk deeper into a quagmire. I have serious doubts about the viability of the two-state solution as outlined in the 1993 Oslo Accords, and every time it is mentioned by foreign politicians, I feel there is little substance or concrete planning behind the words. Yet, a one-state solution can only be an alternative if there are international peacekeepers in the area for several decades to come.

In Ukraine, I believe that in 2025 we will see an end to the costly war with its tremendous loss of people and infrastructure. Hopefully, peace negotiations will begin as soon as President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in as the next president of the USA. There too, similar to the Israel-Palestine situation, I believe there will be a need for international peacekeepers and the establishment of a buffer between Russia and Ukraine. It is likely that some of Ukraine’s provinces now occupied by Russia will be administered by Russia for some time, but perhaps not permanently, except for Crimea. The West’s military alliance, NATO, is not likely to accept Ukraine as a member in the near future, as such an agreement must be unanimous, and several member countries would not yet vote affirmatively. Furthermore, others, so-called CIS countries in the region, need to sort out internal issues and long-term relations with Russia and the West, but they are at least partly doing well.

On this note, it is a fact that Russia itself, and the CIS countries, have not found their sustainable democratic political systems for the future, nor their political and economic cooperation in the region, with the West, and further afield. The relations between the West and Russia, and the other CIS countries, must be developed in realistic ways and in mutual understanding, including with China, the upcoming superpower, and with the USA, the waning yet strong superpower, and the EU. A stronger and more effective UN could and should play a more prominent role, which is hardly the case today – and Trump says he is sceptical of the UN, probably mainly because he wants the USA to play a greater role in the world, including through direct, bilateral trade, political, and other relations with other countries.

In the West, there is an increased focus on rearmament and a quite unprecedented military build-up, in NATO and each of the 32 member countries. For a decade, it has been a target for all NATO member countries to spend two per cent of their GDP on defence, but now, there are suggestions that the percentage should be higher, even as high as five per cent. I believe it would be a very negative development if the West continues this thinking and action. True, in the world we live in, defence and security play an important role. However, alternatively, there should be broad efforts on peace creation and cooperation. Today, the real, positive peace efforts are meagre. If NATO’s thinking and actions are allowed to continue without active peaceful counter-actions, the world will become more dangerous and less peaceful, contrary to the propaganda and the prevailing Zeitgeist and worldview. Indeed, I believe that we need a paradigm shift and a new breed of politicians and thinkers – and voters too – who can usher in a different understanding of democracy and politics in today’s and tomorrow’s world.

Whereas we stand on the threshold of a better future for many countries, with an unparalleled quantity and quality of expertise and resources at a level that the world has not seen before, we simultaneously stand on the edge of the opposite, with right-wing political trends, more selfish government and individual and group thinking. We have also not solved the North-South relations after the colonial era; rather, inequality is increasing between and within countries. Ordinary people’s work is not valued and paid as it should be, and our solidarity with the poor is not honoured.

Peace requires all the positive values in us all, and the way to peace and prosperity demands equality. It is proven that democracy is the best way to achieve development and peace within and between countries; democracies rarely fight wars against each other, it has been observed. Also, the more we talk about democracy and peace, not rearmament, war, and conflict, the deeper the understanding of democracy and peace will develop in our minds and hearts, and through that, in the concrete political actions and administrative systems we establish. Hence, we must talk more about the right and good basic values, how to live together with all human beings, managing the world’s resources and environment. Negative talk, in everyday life, politics and so on, on social and traditional media, should be reduced and belong to the past. We must uplift and celebrate those who do the right thing.

Noting that we have already used up a quarter of the current century in the third millennium of our time, I wish and pray that we realise the urgency and begin to talk, teach and discuss more about peace and democracy, striving to make countries, regions, and the whole world more equal for all men and women. We have a duty to ourselves and our fellow human beings of today and tomorrow. That would indeed be doing God’s will, contributing to creating ‘heaven on earth’ – not quite perhaps, but at least being on the right track.

Dear Reader, I wish you a Happy New Year 2025.

Atle Hetland
The writer is a senior Norwegian social scientist with experience from university, diplomacy and development aid. He can be reached at atlehetland@yahoo.com