Whether seen as a stroke of genius or a last-ditch attempt at victory, Ukraine’s Kursk offensive has shattered the two-and-a-half-year status quo in the ongoing war. Before this offensive, Russia had been gradually securing victories, advancing village by village, mile by mile, despite both sides incurring significant losses. This war of attrition had favoured Russia, which was on the brink of complete victory just a month ago, poised to take control of the three provinces it had originally sought from Ukraine.

However, the Kursk offensive has upended this situation. While Russia continues to make progress in the eastern regions, Ukraine has been reclaiming territory near Kursk and making inroads into Russian territory. Despite efforts to slow the Ukrainian advance, Russia has so far been unable to decisively halt it. This tit-for-tat exchange of territory is widely seen as Ukraine’s strategy to hold onto Russian-held land, bringing Russia to the negotiating table and forcing it to return the territory it has seized. Whether this strategy will ultimately succeed remains uncertain, depending on Ukraine’s ability to maintain its gains near Kursk. However, an unintended consequence of this offensive is the escalation of the war.

Previously, military operations were largely confined to border regions where civilians had been evacuated, with deeper strikes targeting only military objectives. But now, emboldened by its success in Kursk, Ukraine has begun launching strikes deeper inside Russia, targeting civilians and infrastructure with long-range missiles and drones increasingly supplied by NATO and its Western allies. In response, Russia has resumed strikes on Kyiv.

Although infrastructure around Kyiv has been a frequent target throughout the war, Russia’s recent salvo involved around 200 missiles and drones aimed at the city’s energy infrastructure just ahead of a difficult winter. The destruction of these facilities could make the coming months even harder to endure. This escalation into strikes on major urban centres is a worrying development. A few months ago, the conflict appeared to be inching toward a potential ceasefire and negotiated settlement. Now, peace seems as elusive as ever, with the risk of the war escalating further and leading to more civilian casualties in urban areas far from the front lines.