The foreign policy of a country is often based on a self-defined national interest to adequately interact globally, regionally and at the national level. Resilience of values and principles plays a pivotal role in promoting one’s national interest. Seldom is the objective self-aggrandizement, unless a country has enough national power to sustain on its own in periods of crisis. Emotionally charged statements invariably bring embarrassment. Again, the sustainability aspect comes into play to deal with untoward reactions and undesirable results.
Countries like Pakistan with acute economic issues need to understand that policy planning is neither soothsaying nor should it be based on implausible assumptions. Making plans beyond the foreseeable future may be avoided as any government in Pakistan would not know how long it stays in power or whether any policy would be allowed to continue for its specified period of time. A new government comes to power with its own ideas of dealing with the country. More often than not, it is diametrically opposite. Hence, policy failures…!!
A classic example is Islamabad’s relations with Moscow…!!
Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in May 1948, Islamabad has missed a number of opportunities to finding a solid base for bilateral cooperation. To start with, it was Pakistan’s first PM’s ‘inability’ to visit Moscow that sowed the seeds of mistrust between the two countries. Mostly, it would be Pakistan’s pro-US leadership at a given time, that would re-set the tone of relations such as joining SEATO and CENTO. Moscow’s emergence as the biggest arms supplier to India after the 1965 war and subsequently its decisive role in 1971 dumbfounded Islamabad. From 1971 Indo-Soviet Treaty - to Moscow’s vetoing every resolution on East Pakistan at the UN - to Islamabad’s siding with anti-Russia forces during the Soviet-Afghan war in the 1980’s could also be quoted as obvious points of divergence.
High-level meetings at the sidelines of global or regional events and Ministerial visits particularly in 2017-18 have not been able to provide both countries a firm bilateral platform either. Similarly, institutional mechanisms in diversified fields such as IGC on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation have yet to produce substantive results. Bilateral trade figures do not speak of a promising commercial engagement either. Divergent political and diplomatic angles, at critical junctures, further created misunderstandings. Seemingly, political and diplomatic pursuits do not find the right kind of ‘push’ for the economic and defence relations to flourish. In this backdrop, important diverging viewpoints restricted both countries from receiving each other with open arms.
But history also speaks of a number of positives as well. Pakistan’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as a full member, owes largely to Moscow’s support. ZAB’s pro-socialist alliance and personal interest resulted in warming up of relations with Moscow. This was the time when Islamabad distanced itself from the US in a deliberate attempt to forge closer ties with Moscow. Establishment of Karachi Steel Mills; the thermal power facilities at Muzaffargarh, Multan-II and Guddu; Russian assistance in the establishment of OGDCL; and, provision of Mi-35 gunship helicopters, could be quoted as important positive developments. Owing to a number of factors, Moscow remains silent on Islamabad’s ‘real needs’ in the economic and defence fields. Constant American check on related developments also deter Pak-Russia defence cooperation from flourishing. However, in recent years, signing the agreement to construct the North-South Gas Pipeline (NSGP) from Karachi to Lahore followed by signing MoU’s on a couple more energy related projects, rekindled hopes of strengthening economic relations.
Then came a bolt from the blue…!! In its bid to get close to Moscow for economic gains and also to openly defy the West, Islamabad committed a diplomatic sin with far reaching effects. The presence of Pakistani PM in Moscow the day Ukraine war started, raised a number of eyebrows particularly in the West while creating all sorts of foreign policy issues for Islamabad. With Pakistan as the lone supporter of President Putin, the optics were not at all pleasing. Subsequently, Pakistan’s ‘neutral’ stance on the Ukraine War did not go well with the US and EU.
Unfortunately, in return, Pakistan did not get the promised Russian oil or wheat on subsidized rates either. Moscow did not go beyond providing a few items for the flood affected people or reiterating its earlier promises on energy-related projects. The present Pak-Russia bilateral trajectory does not seem to go beyond holding ‘fruitful talks for import of cheap oil, diesel and gas’. As a damage-limit measure or stay truly neutral in the ongoing Ukraine War, Pakistan must not look for short-term advantages. Involvement with Ukraine, at this point in time, is likely to be counterproductive.
That brings us to a few important questions: As a policy, regardless of the mysterious history of ups and downs, what kind of relations do Pakistan envisage to have with the Russian Federation, in a manner that would keep additional frictions with the US and Europe at bay? Here, one is referring to the dire need of having a balanced foreign policy in which Pakistan’s relations with Russia, America, China and Europe are maintained with bare minimum clash of interest. Secondly, Pakistan needs to see what it has to offer to Russia, in return, to make it a mutually benefitting relationship. Thirdly, as Pak-Russia relations and Pak-US relations are mutually exclusive, what would the right diplomatic manner be to move pieces on the geo-political chessboard?
Five factors need to be clearly understood before embarking on the uphill task of mending ways with the world powers. One, instead of relying solely on its geo-strategic value, Pakistan must work towards its economic recovery. Two, the country needs to understand that internal political uncertainty hardly leaves any option for pursuing any foreign policy. Three, to look objective, Pakistan may try to see its strengths and weaknesses from its partners’ point of view as well. Four, Pakistan may endeavour to establish its credentials as a reliable partner for all those powers that believe in peace and prosperity rather than taking sides and then taking U-turns thereon. Lastly, it needs to be understood that in the backdrop of the ensuing cold war, international relations are bound to be intrinsically unstable, making the process of foreign policy a little more complicated than usual.