Political change in Japan

House of Representatives, the lower house of the Japanese Diet (Parliament), led by the unchallenged traditional ruling Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP), known as Jiminto in Japanese, has been dissolved on July 21 by PM Taro Aso. New elections will be held after 40 days next month on August 30. Analysts believe that this time it is not going to be a mere factional change in the Diet or an ordinary general election as they happened in the past, but it will be a substantial political change to be introduced in the Diet after a very long time. So much so, many predict that the change will bury the politics engineered by the LDP since 1955, a most distinctive feature of Japanese factional-ridden domestic party politics. Japan is known for its longest one-party rule in the world. The LDP ruled Japan without facing any drastic challenge from other political parties in its 54 years of rule with the exception of just few months when it did not stay in power. LDP's grip over domestic politics and foreign policy issues has never been shaken. Now many expect that LDP iron fist is getting over in about a few days. Michael Penn, Executive Director of the Kitakyushu-based think-tank, Shingetsu Institute, says that given the present structure of the LDP, it would "never be able to pick itself up from the ground again" as he sees break up of the party into several pieces. What changes are expecting the Japanese voters, time and again has been expressed by many. These changes would include changes in the political leadership of the nation as well changes in US-Japan relations particularly with regard to both countries' cooperation on War on Terror but seemingly not in an abrupt manner. Penn is optimistic "about a more liberal, Asia-oriented government" change in Japan, a Tokyo, which is intended to lead Asia more than merely cultivating ties with Washington. Outside Japan and its surrounding region, similar feelings are emerging. The Korea Times in its editorial on July 22 opines that the success of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), "will lead to considerable change in Japan's politics and economy and its effects will surely spill over to its neighbours, mainly Korea and China." The London-based Financial Times on July 21 under caption New dawn in the land of the rising sun predicts success for the LDP in the coming polls. Explaining the same changing trends, the leading Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun wrote in its July 22 editorial that "it is quite likely that Minshuto [LDP] will come to power." Japan Times in its editorial on July 23 said: "A victory for the DPJ in the election would put an end to the LDP's almost total control of politics since 1955." At the moment, DPJ has approximately more than 10 percent edge over the LDP. Analysts say that the party would easily win the elections. They are optimistic that party would be the likely winner on August 30. They, however, say that the party may not achieve a comfortable majority in the Lower House of the Diet, so it would align itself with leftist, several smaller parities and broken members of the LDP to form the government. DPJ won the elections of the Upper House (House of Counsellors) two years ago in July 2007. DPJ leader Yukio Hatoyama, who replaced veteran Ichiro Ozawa in May, said: "It is time we destroy bureaucracy-led politics that have lasted since the Meiji Restoration and create new politics in which people play the central role," and announced that "I would like to take on this major fight with a historic sense of mission." Conversely, LDP has been facing worst time since its birth after PM Junichiro Koizumi's resignation in September 2006, three of LDP's leaders namely; Shinzo Abe, and Yasuo Fukuda, and Aso, could not sustain one after the other. The latter dissolved the Lower House only taking the office 10 months ago from Fukuda. They turned to become unpopular prime ministers and could hardly replace Koizumi and their political standing rocked at the bottom within a short span of time. Aso was the third PM in only three years time after Koizumi resigned. Abrupt government changes after Koizumi sent a negative message to the public, which largely turned down LDP's foreign policy and found guilty the party of not ensuring good governance and engineering the same old backdoor politics. LDP has very little to show to the voters for its support now. People are disappointed on economic reforms the most and the global economic crisis on the other, which has been badly hitting the Japanese industry and declining its growth and exports. Economy is running all-time low, i.e. over to 10 percent below its potential with an ageing and shrinking population. This may affect Japan's stature as the second most developed economy in the world after the US and the biggest one in Asia. LDP might face factional split from now onward till the elections. That's why political pundits have been predicting a difficult time for the LDP. LDP's apologies probably would not likely win the hearts and minds of the voters. For them it is more than enough. The party lost the Tokyo metropolitan elections on July 12, 10 days before the Diet was dissolved, for the first time in 40 years, a major setback, which was not less than a rebellion-like situation that was unknown to the party for years. Moreover, scandals, factionalism, nepotism, hereditary, and recent fuzzy privatisation and failed economic reforms, and above-all money-politics too long damaged the face of the LDP. Criticising the performance of the LDP, one of the leading Japanese newspaper, Mainichi daily wrote: "Aso's decision to dissolve the Diet comes too late" forcing the LDP "to fight in the general election under the worst possible conditions." Therefore, muscle that were erected against Ozawa's so-called bribery scandal, which resulted in his resignation as opposition leader in the Diet just a couple of months ago on May 11, 2009 could not save the loosing face of the LDP in the eyes of the majority of the Japanese. With the resignation of Ozawa, LDP chiefs and lieutenants were seemingly optimistic about the end of the Ozawa era. Conversely, Ozawa's exit injected a new confidence in the ranks and files of the DPJ but the LDP power magic faded after Koizumi's exit. Consequently, Abe, Fukuda, and Aso could not save the sinking boat of the LDP with the change of faces and guards of the party. At this time LDP is facing the most difficult time in its history. America needs to re-adjust itself with the new realism emerging in the Japanese domestic politics, as it has already emerged in US domestic politics in the shape of the success of Barack Obama last November. He has the tendency to adjust with emerging realism in world politics such as changes in the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, and Pakistan, for instance. People in Pakistan voted for liberal parties in last February polls to get rid of militants. Iranian voters have signalled their dislike for the old reactionary right wing party in last month's polls. By the same token, the long honeymoon period of the US with the LDP has to come to an end. The leaders that ruled Japan with a strong memory of war have to go away. A new relationship between Japan and the US is imminent with the DPJ in the leadership seat. All this will depend on the outcome of the most critical and 'revolutionary-like' election results on August 30 and the world would be watching how much Japan is going to be changed. The writer is a research fellow (East Asia) at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)

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