During a Democratic party fundraiser in California on October 13, 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden, while commenting on U.S. foreign policy and its strategic interests, remarked that Pakistan might be “one of the most dangerous nations in the world” as the country has “nuclear weapons without any cohesion,” conveying that Pakistan’s nuclear program is not safe in the perception of the United States. There was a sharp rebuke from the Pakistani government and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). To evaluate the repercussions of the American President’s statement, it is necessary to be aware of the context of this speech. President Biden expressed these views while presenting an overview of the global political concerns the world is dealing with today. He first disapproved of the Russian and China policies and then came to Pakistan’s nuclear program. The implications of this thrust demonstrated that an American objective remains to create a wedge between Pakistan, China and Russia and increase Pakistan’s dependence on the U.S., which by any standards is contrary to Pakistan’s interests and national security.
As the world stands today, and given the sensitivity of Pakistan’s public opinion, the U.S. finds it challenging to influence Pakistan’s policy directions in its favor directly. Therefore, it has the option to utilise the services of the Arab countries of the Gulf. It is an open secret that historically, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia were able to exercise economic leverage to facilitate American interests in Pakistan.
At this time, the United States believes that the political and economic instability in Pakistan and the rifts between institutions present excellent opportunities to increase pressure on Pakistan. Moreover, Pakistan’s recent alarming foreign exchange deficit provides favorable conditions for all kinds of interference by external powers. The danger is that it might not compromise Pakistan’s security abilities.
History defines Pakistan-US relations into two parts. One was during the Cold War when Pakistan and America established an alliance through SEATO and CENTO due to mutual interests. But even then, the Pakistani rulers of the 1950s realised that China was a rising power and our neighbor, thus, laying the foundation for a long-lasting Pak-China close relationship. This relationship further strengthened in the 1970s under Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s premiership, despite U.S. unhappiness over the Eastern alliance. Unfortunately, these foreign policy preferences have received apprehension from the ‘American lobby’ in Pakistan, which is prevalent in nearly every institution of Pakistan to safeguard American interests.
The primary purpose of the recent American Presidential statement could be to restrict Pakistan’s nuclear program through the surveillance of the United Nations Security Council. Moreover, to temporarily relieve Pakistan from economic difficulties, the U.S. could saddle Pakistan with more debt with the help of the IMF and other financial institutions. Weak and self-centered Pakistani rulers can easily fall into this dangerous trap.
Important to mention is that America’s failures in Afghanistan are forcing it to look for other regional opportunities. Despite modern weapons, equipment, and sophisticated intelligence mechanism, the U.S. faced the worst defeat in the 20-year war with Afghanistan. The U.S. fought this ‘unnecessary’ war with a substantial financial burden, and its branding as a sole superpower was tainted. Ironically, this defeat was by under-trained and almost under-armed Afghanis. In this setting, America had to look for a scapegoat, and it found it easy to blame Pakistan for all its mishaps across the border.
Pakistan also needs to understand that the U.S. has chosen India as its strategic ally, which is why both countries are included in the QUAD and I2U2 regional security alliances. The primary aim is to craft a joint economic and defense strategy against China.
Such developments indicate that Pakistan must go with China for its security and economic interests. Secondly, close economic ties with Russia should be Pakistan’s national objective. However, an alliance with one country does not imply that there will necessarily be hostility with the other. For example, China’s trade volume with India and the United States is quite significant even when China is not in a coalition with the two. The most crucial point is that if a country is stable regarding its economic and institutional strength, any other negative regional trends can be skillfully measured. But if there is a financial meltdown, where external financial assistance becomes the last resort, there is a considerable risk of compromising a country’s sovereignty.
Currently, Pakistan is passing through its most sensitive phase, which requires a comprehensive fiscal and foreign policy strategy. Rather than being financially dependent on any country, priority should be an option for generating resources from within. An IMF bailout package or financial assistance from any other government would always be a temporary solution. However, such possibilities could compel the government to make national security compromises. In these circumstances, the best strategy for Pakistan would be to establish alliances with friendly neighboring countries, including China, Iran, and Turkey. These ties could help free Pakistan from dependence on the U.S. and other international financial agencies.
There is no denying that political vulnerability leads to an economic crisis, as Pakistan is dealing with this today. Therefore, all political parties should devise a formula for quick, transparent, and free elections, as the former Prime Minister demands, realising it is the only solution to presently created complications. Only a stable government with a mandate from the people could ensure political stability with prospects of economic well-being.